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The US Presidential election prediction thread


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1 hour ago, RiG said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54926084

Trump Twitter rant in 3...2...1...

Trump’s latest claim is the most ridiculous but also the most dangerous.

Encouraging gun happy nut jobs with claims that voting machines have been deliberately tampered with to deny him reelection could lead to a serious backlash.

All it takes is a single, aggrieved nutter to lash out and someone’s life could be in jeopardy.

 

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3 minutes ago, AyrshireTon said:

Heard a theory that Trump will step down and leave Pence in charge. Pence, as president, would then pardon Trump from any possible prosecution.

Really hope this isn’t possible.

It would be funny as f**k if he did that and Pence said "OK, take him away boys.".

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23 minutes ago, AyrshireTon said:

Heard a theory that Trump will step down and leave Pence in charge. Pence, as president, would then pardon Trump from any possible prosecution.

Really hope this isn’t possible.

It's possible, and it's rumoured that Ford only got the VP slot by making a similar promise to then President Nixon. Thing is, then Nixon had leverage of offering Ford the job in the first place.

Here, Trump has no leverage, and if he put Pence in charge, and Pence then went and pardoned him, it might torpedo any chance the latter had in a General election 4 years down the line. Unless Trump had a ridiculous amount of dirt on Pence, it simply wouldn't make sense for Pence to roll over like that.

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1 hour ago, AyrshireTon said:

Heard a theory that Trump will step down and leave Pence in charge. Pence, as president, would then pardon Trump from any possible prosecution.

Really hope this isn’t possible.

Was mooted by Richard Osman on The Last Leg last Friday. 
As others have pointed out, however, there would have to be something in it for Pence. 

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2 hours ago, AyrshireTon said:

Heard a theory that Trump will step down and leave Pence in charge. Pence, as president, would then pardon Trump from any possible prosecution.

Really hope this isn’t possible.

As has been said many times Trump has serious issues at State level that would not be reduced with a Federal pardon.

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33 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

How do you pardon someone who hasn't  been convicted of anything?

Good point.  However I have no idea how all embracing a Presidential pardon is, I’m sure it would exercise the mind of totally non-partisan SC.

ETA had Nixon been charged, let alone convicted, when he was pardoned?

Edited by Granny Danger
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3 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

I can only think of folk like Scooter Libby, Roger Stone who had already been convicted.

Right so basically, Trump goes, ‘pardon me for x,y,z’ and they get the AG in and batter out an agreement, done, its up to the AG what goes to court. 
Can happen over here too, prosecutors can essentially decide to take no further action without something going to court and if done in a certain way then its final. 

Edited by Inanimate Carbon Rod
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15 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Between now and January that seems a tall order 

Could be done in a day if really pushed to be honest. 
The constitutional provision for presidential pardon can happen ‘at any time after the comission of the crime’ and doesnt appear to rely on conviction. 

Edited by Inanimate Carbon Rod
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6 hours ago, AyrshireTon said:

Heard a theory that Trump will step down and leave Pence in charge. Pence, as president, would then pardon Trump from any possible prosecution.

Really hope this isn’t possible.

Presidential pardons only cover Federal crimes.  So if (say) New York wanted him for something, they still could charge and prosecute him.

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Edited by Baxter Parp
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Paddy Power still aren't paying out on Georgia, the c***s. North Carolina sadly isn't just a projection, all votes in and counted.
The machines in Paddy Power still won't pay out on my Biden outright bet in case anything kicks off. Most counts seemed to get to about 99% in about a day and the remaining 1% take a week or so. Reminds me of Windows 98.
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On 26/10/2020 at 17:41, ArabAuslander said:

Biden to win Popular Vote - 52-46

Biden to win Electoral College 308-230

States - Biden takes WI, PA, MI and OH;  Trump  holds FL, TX GA and the other Southern States

Decent effort, two electoral votes out. Swap Georgia and Ohio and it would be bang on. Only skimmed the first few pages of the thread so possible someone has done better.

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