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The US Presidential election prediction thread

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I’m sure the first thing that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will do is appoint a load of purple haired, nose ring wearing activists from Portland to set about defunding the police.

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No way did he write these. Wonder who the British Pollster is? Not that Belize shyster?

P.S. Wonder if he's got Steve Bannon back on tweeting duty?

 

 

Edited by welshbairn

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18 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

No way did he write these. Wonder who the British Pollster is? Not that Belize shyster?

P.S. Wonder if he's got Steve Bannon back on tweeting duty?

 

 

Was about to say..neither of those tweets are written by Trump..

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Just now, Bohemian said:

Was about to say..neither of those tweets are written by Trump..

The lack of grammar errors and capital letters are a dead give away. But whoever is tweeting on his behalf, he isn't requesting that any of those tweets be removed,

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3 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

The Libertarian agenda should really appeal to much of the fuckwit Republican/Trump supporters.

Abolishing immigration controls, legalising all drugs and free trade (abolishing tariffs) should really appeal to Republican/Trump supporters? 🤣

You really know f**k all about American politics! 😂

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48 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

The more extreme Defund the Police arseholes - those that want to disband police forces entirely.

 

 

Which elected Democrats, or Democrat candidates, want to do that? 

There's a very fair case that the police are over-funded, which leads to them driving around making up things to do. It also wastes resources that could be much more effectively spent elsewhere in reducing crime. But I don't think any Democrats are in the 'abolish the police' camp.

To me the single biggest difference between the two US parties is that the Republicans have their full-on wingnuts inside the party.

For someone to be described as extreme left they'd have to at least believe in the nationalisation of industry, the abolition of private property, salaries based on need, collectivisation of farms. No Democrat supports anything like that.

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3 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Libertarians don't like either side.

They'll either vote for their candidate or not vote at all.

In any case there has always been a small percentage of the vote going to other parties - anywhere between 3% to 5%.

This. 

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7 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said:

Abolishing immigration controls, legalising all drugs and free trade (abolishing tariffs) should really appeal to Republican/Trump supporters? 🤣

You really know f**k all about American politics! 😂

There's obviously plenty of differences but you can't argue that overall they're not much closer to Republicans than to Democrats. It's exactly the same for Greens on the other side of the spectrum. There's no doubt that in a French-style run-off election, forced to pick between the two, many if not most Libertarians would vote, and would break more for the Republican candidate than the Democrat.

 

Edited by GordonS

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5 minutes ago, GordonS said:

There's obviously plenty of differences but you can't argue that overall they're not much closer to Republicans than to Democrats. It's exactly the same for Greens on the other side of the spectrum. There's no doubt that in a French-style run-off election, forced to pick between the two, many if not most Libertarians would vote, and would break more for the Republican candidate than the Democrat.

Ron and, to a lesser extent, Rand Paul are the only Republicans have had a lot of support from libertarian activists. Ron was the LP candidate for President in 1988 and has since rejoined the party after leaving Congress. He is far more libertarian than recent LP candidates for President, notably Gary Johnson.

In practice, Libertarians are just as willing to vote Democrat if there is no LP candidate but most will abstain.

 

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14 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Republicans loved free  trade till Trump

And Hillary Clinton, an economic Neo-liberal,  ran as a free trader against Trump.

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Oh, and also on smaller parties - the Greens weren't on the ballot paper in Pennsylvania because they initially entered a placeholder candidate before trying to switch it to their real candidate. Democrats challenged that, a Republican judge ruled in favour of the Greens, but the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled for the Democrats - 5 Democrat judges ruled in their favour, 2 Republican judges said the filing errors could be fixed.

In Wisconsin the Green candidate had enough signatures to get on the ballot - but not when they removed those with out-of-date addresses. The state's electoral commissions split 3-3 on party grounds to remove him from the ballot papers, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled 4-3 to keep him off the ballot papers on 14 September, saying it was too late to change it.

In Michigan the Greens got 0.2%, in Georgia and Arizona they were write-in candidates, the local Greens in Rhode Island deliberately kept them off the ballot papers and in Nevada they weren't on it at all.

With thin majorities in so many states, on such small twists does history turn. 

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4 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said:

Ron and, to a lesser extent, Rand Paul are the only Republicans have had a lot of support from libertarian activists. Ron was the LP candidate for President in 1988 and has since rejoined the party after leaving Congress. He is far more libertarian than recent LP candidates for President, notably Gary Johnson.

In practice, Libertarians are just as willing to vote Democrat if there is no LP candidate but most will abstain.

 

Ron Paul, Gary Johnson, David Koch... that's not co-incidental.

I'm sure not enough Libertarians would have considered switching to Trump to move Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, but Georgia? The Libertarian vote there is 6 times more than the current Biden lead.

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As sure as I’d shag Rachel Stevens I’m adamant he will f**k of to Russia soon.  They were talking about him being a flight risk on the news last night.  
 

He will fly to his Ayrshire golf course.  Hang about with the fat old bigots there for a bit.  Then fly to Belarus where he will bolt into the Russian Embassy for save haven.  Assange style.

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35 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Which elected Democrats, or Democrat candidates, want to do that? 

There's a very fair case that the police are over-funded, which leads to them driving around making up things to do. It also wastes resources that could be much more effectively spent elsewhere in reducing crime. But I don't think any Democrats are in the 'abolish the police' camp.

To me the single biggest difference between the two US parties is that the Republicans have their full-on wingnuts inside the party.

For someone to be described as extreme left they'd have to at least believe in the nationalisation of industry, the abolition of private property, salaries based on need, collectivisation of farms. No Democrat supports anything like that.

Its not necessarily that they are underfunded. If you look at depts like Flint PD they are woefully underfunded. The reason other depts drive about in the humvee vehicles etc is that they buy ex forces armoured vehicles using civil forfeiture money. Civil forfeiture is like Proceeds of Crime act money here except POCA cash doesnt go to the police. They legally are not allowed to spend that money on personnel (or so my understanding of it is) which means you have the depts having the gucci kit but no where near the staffing levels they require.

America desperately needs some kind of police reform, there are some states where there isnt even any requirement to have any formal training to be a law enforcement officer. 

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5 minutes ago, Lofarl said:

As sure as I’d shag Rachel Stevens I’m adamant he will f**k of to Russia soon.  They were talking about him being a flight risk on the news last night.  
 

He will fly to his Ayrshire golf course.  Hang about with the fat old bigots there for a bit.  Then fly to Belarus where he will bolt into the Russian Embassy for save haven.  Assange style.

Predict he’ll visit Turnberry in January.

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