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The US Presidential election prediction thread

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So here's a thing.

In Georgia the Libertarians are on 61,829. Biden's lead is currently 9,160.

In Arizona the Libertarians are on 49,406. Biden's lead is currently 18,610.

In Wisconsin the Libertarians are on 38,271. Biden's lead is currently 17,732.

In Pennsylvania the Libertarians are on 77,415. Biden's lead is currently 37,298.

You don't even need to move many of those votes to Trump and he's re-elected. 

Libertarians don't like either side.

 

They'll either vote for their candidate or not vote at all.

 

In any case there has always been a small percentage of the vote going to other parties - anywhere between 3% to 5%.

 

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I think AOC has maybe gone in a bit early and hard to try to force the democrats to pick progressives that a republican Senate won't  approve anyway.

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I think AOC has maybe gone in a bit early and hard to try to force the democrats to pick progressives that a republican Senate won't  approve anyway.
They seem to forget that Moscow Mitch will almost certainly have to approve them - I know he has a good working relationship with Biden, despite their political differences, but he isn't going to accept many (if any) progressives in the cabinet.

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3 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

I think AOC has maybe gone in a bit early and hard to try to force the democrats to pick progressives that a republican Senate won't  approve anyway.

If I was Biden and thinking of going even half way to where she wants, I still make very public provisional appointments of moderate Republicans to key positions, at least till the Senate reruns in Georgia in January, then change them if the Dems win, and maybe if they don't.

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3 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

If I was Biden and thinking of going even half way to where she wants, I still make very public provisional appointments of moderate Republicans to key positions, at least till the Senate reruns in Georgia in January, then change them if the Dems win, and maybe if they don't.

Why republicans?

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19 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Libertarians don't like either side.

They'll either vote for their candidate or not vote at all.

I'm any case there has always been a small percentage of the vote going to other parties - anywhere between 3% to 5%.

The Libertarian agenda should really appeal to much of the fuckwit Republican/Trump supporters.

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6 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Why republicans?

To play reuniting America to persuade some moderate Georgia Republicans and independents switch their votes, and replace Mitch McConnell with Queen Kamala.

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2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

To play reuniting America to persuade some moderate Georgia Republicans and independents switch their votes, and replace Mitch McConnell with Queen Kamala.

Why would Georgian republicans vote democrats in the runoff if he's  appointing republicans anyway? Why would black Atlanta voters turn out to vote democrat?

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I hope the Democrats can carry out massive voter fraud turnout their full support and win the two Georgia Senate seats.

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Why would Georgian republicans vote democrats in the runoff if he's  appointing republicans anyway? Why would black Atlanta voters turn out to vote democrat?
One likely to get a place will be Kasich who publically said to vote Biden and who made an appearance (albeit online) during the Democratic Convention.

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2 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:
6 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:
Why would Georgian republicans vote democrats in the runoff if he's  appointing republicans anyway? Why would black Atlanta voters turn out to vote democrat?

One likely to get a place will be Kasich who publically said to vote Biden and who made an appearance (albeit online) during the Democratic Convention.

Both seats are going to runoff, no? Why not throw the kitchen sink at that, hold off on appointing any republicans until you really have to?

Kasich will just vote with the republicans now Trump is gone surely? What does he gain by supporting the democrats in any meaningful way now that has been achieved?

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7 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Why would Georgian republicans vote democrats in the runoff if he's  appointing republicans anyway? Why would black Atlanta voters turn out to vote democrat?

He obviously has to get the balance right but he definitely doesn't need to appoint radical socialistic types that will confirm moderates' fears before the run offs on Jan 5th. I'd chuck a couple of soft anti Trumpers in on a temporary basis but then I'm not a Dem strategist on the ground.

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36 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Libertarians don't like either side.

 

They'll either vote for their candidate or not vote at all.

 

In any case there has always been a small percentage of the vote going to other parties - anywhere between 3% to 5%.

 

Sure, but there's no doubt they're much more Trumpy than Democrat. A similar thing happened last time, with the Green vote in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan being higher than the amount by which Clinton lost. Obviously those voters don't regard the Democrats as good enough, but surely they prefer them to Trump.

FPTP sucks, and so does the electoral college.

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Just now, welshbairn said:

He obviously has to get the balance right but he definitely doesn't need to appoint radical socialistic types that will confirm moderates' fears before the run offs on Jan 5th. I'd chuck a couple of soft anti Trumpers in on a temporary basis but then I'm not a Dem strategist on the ground.

Why not just not appoint till after the elections? One of the things Trump did pretty effectively was just railroad protocol around appointing/confirming people when it suited him.

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Just now, MixuFruit said:

Why not just not appoint till after the elections? One of the things Trump did pretty effectively was just railroad protocol around appointing/confirming people when it suited him.

I don't think they'd start officially till after the handover and probably not until confirmed by the Senate. He could just propose them and drop them on Jan 6th. Just an idea, but I did hear somewhere that he's considering it.

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10 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Kasich will just vote with the republicans now Trump is gone surely? What does he gain by supporting the democrats in any meaningful way now that has been achieved?

Kasich's interview on CNN yesterday essentially confirmed this. Lots of babbling about imaginary FAR LEFTISTS in the Democrat party and how Biden must reject them and instead be a moderate centre-right, hands across the aisle, side with us Republicans to get things done or else, Democrat.

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Guest Arthur Symington
34 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said:

Corrected my original post. Cheers 😂

Edit all you want and try as many P&B usernames as you can. You'll still be wrong, Andy.

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