welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 14 minutes ago, Andrew Driver said: Latest Democracy institute poll has Trump leading the popular vote by 1% No idea if this real, but as a pollster that seems to be exclusively used by the Express, it probably is. Do you have their exact and dated polls for Brexit and 2016? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 I'm not really sure what to make of this of this election. Biden looks like the favourite but the polling was also over favourable to HRC. Clinton only managed to pick up 39% of white voters. Trump probably needs that figure to fall to 37% to have a chance. The question is whether or not the protests/riots in the summer have increased Trump's support amongst white voters. Racial polarisation will continue as long as race is continually presented in the media as the primary political issue and the Dems don't offer any class based reforms. Biden has run a strange campaign even taking Covid into consideration. He basically stands for nothing, it's gutting that Bernie isn't the challenger. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 56 minutes ago, MixuFruit said: jings Some weird takes on this. When I saw it I thought it meant that Trump has next to zero chance of getting an early lead on day one, and will do a U turn to demand waiting as long as possible for votes to come in and be counted. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Andrew Driver said: https://calvinayre.com/2016/06/23/press-releases/brexit-poll-leave-up-3-on-remain/ Not sure I'm convinced by the comprehensiveness of their data on that one, or their methodology. https://calvinayre.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/DI-UK-Brexit-poll-23-6-2016.pdf Edited November 1, 2020 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Heliums Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Just now, MixuFruit said: It does rather set the scene for fantastic democrat numbers at the start of the night getting clawed back as things go on. Does it? I thought it was the opposite: the 'already voted' contingent are the mail-in votes, many of which won't be counted until after election night. The ones 'still to vote' are those who will vote in person – and I imagine they will be quicker to declare. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, Andrew Driver said: https://swarajyamag.com/insta/us-presidential-election-2016-the-polls-that-got-it-right-before-election-day They said Trump would win the popular vote by 5-10%. Clinton won by over 2%. Quote The new poll finds Trump establishing a clear lead over Clinton, 50 percent to 45 percent, among decided voters. The outcome nevertheless remains in doubt, as an unusually large number of undecided voters (10 percent) could yet swing the election Clinton’s way, although their eventual, disproportionate support for Trump is the more probable development… If these late deciders end up voting for Trump…he could trounce Clinton by as much as 10 points in the popular vote. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpetmonster Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, MixuFruit said: It does rather set the scene for fantastic democrat numbers at the start of the night getting clawed back as things go on. Depends, not all states count mail votes as they arrive; some wait til the polls close. FL counts votes as they come in, so if Trump loses that, we could know fairly early that he’s fucked. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Mr Heliums said: Does it? I thought it was the opposite: the 'already voted' contingent are the mail-in votes, many of which won't be counted until after election night. The ones 'still to vote' are those who will vote in person – and I imagine they will be quicker to declare. A lot of states are already counting the early votes, Georgia for instance, a biggy. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Usually the networks have declared the winner before the postal votes even get opened. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Andrew Driver said: It claims to be weighted along similar lines to BPC members. I took Biden at 4/6 a few weeks back, I'm only linking because I'm getting coldish feet. I just doubt the reliability of polling with automatic recording calls with dialled responses by people who don't instantly hang up. How do they know who's responding? Edited November 1, 2020 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Just now, MixuFruit said: Does that mean if there's different rules for different states and a lot of early/postal votes, we won't necessarily know who has won, unless it's a landslide? Yes. I think most of the rust belt states don't start counting till the polls close, so exit polls will be the only early indicator. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, MixuFruit said: so those could potentially indicate trump from exit polls? Good point, I don't know if or how they factor in postal and early voting to exit polls. This podcast is quite good at explaining it, they might mention something I missed. In Georgia though they just click a button when the polls close and the results are out I think. https://abcaudio.com/podcasts/powerhouse-politics/ Edited November 1, 2020 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Andrew Driver said: The DI and Trump are of tweeting/polling similar numbers and everything else is fake news. What encourages me about a Biden victory is although the vast majority of bets (oddschecker) are on Trump, the big money stakes are all fallen to Biden. I trust you've wee punt WB? Yeah, getting the heebiejeebies now though looking back on the 2016 thread. My theory is that the pollsters are being very cautious in estimating Biden's lead and it will probably hold up. Even if it drops from a minimum of 8% as currently polled to 5-6%, Biden will get a landslide. The tipping point between a narrow lead in the electoral college and a wipeout is quite small. So I've gone for a big Biden electoral college win, 390-420. Be ready to laugh when he loses Florida. P.S. That polling company seem to be relying on a huge number of "shy" Trump voters. I'd be pretty shy of saying I was voting Biden in Trumpland. Edited November 1, 2020 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 34 minutes ago, Detournement said: Biden has run a strange campaign even taking Covid into consideration. He basically stands for nothing, it's gutting that Bernie isn't the challenger. It's quite funny cause Trump's initial promise (that he was so horrific a contender that the Dems would win by default) has probably came true 4 years later. It's a perfect outcome for them if Biden wins like this. Starmer's clearly hoping for the same thing over here. Winning by default. 23 minutes ago, MixuFruit said: It does rather set the scene for fantastic democrat numbers at the start of the night getting clawed back as things go on. Surely that sorts it for the Dems? If the Republicans never establish any sort of kayfabe lead then they should be fine. 20 minutes ago, welshbairn said: They said Trump would win the popular vote by 5-10%. Clinton won by over 2%. Wasn't that what some people on the trump side were expecting as the chaos outcome? Trump wins the popular vote and is 'cheated' out of the presidency giving him his grievance narrative for the next 4-8 years. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 One other thing that seems strange about Trump saying he wants the result called early, the military votes are usually last to arrive. It's got to be bad for the Republicans if he thinks he's lost them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, NotThePars said: Wasn't that what some people on the trump side were expecting as the chaos outcome? Trump wins the popular vote and is 'cheated' out of the presidency giving him his grievance narrative for the next 4-8 years. Would have set him up nicely for his new media empire with Alex Jones etc. Looks like Andrew Neil and friends are beating him to it this time, unless he thinks there's money in QAnon. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Would have set him up nicely for his new media empire with Alex Jones etc. Looks like Andrew Neil and friends are beating him to it this time, unless he thinks there's money in QAnon. Trump didn't know what Q-Anon was until about 5 weeks ago but they're definitely dedicated enough to sustain something. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, NotThePars said: Trump didn't know what Q-Anon was until about 5 weeks ago but they're definitely dedicated enough to sustain something. He's been getting very cosy with One America News for a lot longer. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 2 hours ago, Andrew Driver said: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1354506/us-election-2020-donald-trump-win-poll-democracy-institute-joe-biden-swing-states Sorry for linking the Express but the Democracy institute called it right in 2016 and they also got the Brexit numbers bang on. Obviously bullshit poll is obvious. 21% of black voters approve of him and are going to vote for him? Suuuuuure. 2 hours ago, Bob Mahelp said: This suggests that Trump will win the popular vote. I'd be stunned if that happened. It doesn't, because more than half of the votes are already in. They're not percentages of equal numbers. 1 hour ago, Andrew Driver said: It claims to be weighted along similar lines to BPC members. I took Biden at 4/6 a few weeks back, I'm only linking because I'm getting coldish feet. I'll happily buy that bet from you. Seriously, if you want out let me know. 55 minutes ago, welshbairn said: One other thing that seems strange about Trump saying he wants the result called early, the military votes are usually last to arrive. It's got to be bad for the Republicans if he thinks he's lost them. Polls among serving personnel have consistently shown they prefer Biden to Trump. They're mostly younger people, they're generally socially liberal, but more than that, these are people who are big on duty and dignity. That's not Trump's thing. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/10/26/poll-trump-backed-by-majority-of-veterans-but-not-younger-ones/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 hour ago, MixuFruit said: Does that mean if there's different rules for different states and a lot of early/postal votes, we won't necessarily know who has won on the day, unless it's a landslide? Yes, every state is different - some are already counting mail-ins, some will start counting them on election day and won't take long. If Trump's going to win we may well not know until Thursday or Friday, possibly later. He'll surely have to win Pennsylvania and they can't even start processing mail-in ballots until election day. Unless Biden romps it we likely won't get a result on the night - but if it's the kind of night in which Biden romps Pennsylvania, he'll probably win at least one of Florida, North Carolina or Georgia so it will probably won't matter anyway. 538 website has some really good explainers on this: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/both-candidates-might-fall-short-of-270-electoral-votes-on-election-night-but-how-close-might-they-get/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-pennsylvanias-vote-count-could-change-after-election-night/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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