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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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Once Trump is told he’s lost, in the month and a bit between Biden getting the keys, odds on he’s either going to declare Martial Law and get troops on the streets or start a war somewhere in a final attempt to stay in power just a bit longer, you know it’s happening!!!

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13 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Pennyslvania - Trump's lead drops by another 14,000 in last half hour - now just 77,338 in it.

Biden is winning mail-ins in Trump in-person counties like Cumberland County and Erie County.

Biden averaging 76% of mail-in votes.

 

 

Down to 75,451 now.

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Just now, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Jorgensen's doing great . . . 

I haven't looked at her results but my forecast, based on other unknown LP candidates, was around a million votes.

Gary Johnson, who had a higher profile as a competent former New Mexico Governor,  got 4.4 million votes (3.3%)  in 2016. 

That was a great result for a 3rd party with very little money.

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2 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

I was just thinking that. Two minutes of ads for every five minutes of news.  
 

Anyhoo, Trump live from the White House in 12 minutes.  Tears and snotters.  

Every channel is the same..its unwatchable.

Looking forward to a heads gone, I'll be extremely disappointed if its reasoned and rational speech...

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Who’s the chap on the CNN panel ranting on about BLM etc...

That’s a few nights now he just rants constantly without making much sense. None of his arguments are in context either.

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2 minutes ago, Andrew Driver said:

  I understand it's a four party election with Greens and Libertarian candidates.  

How did you find the Libertarian candidate?  

Probably too ideological and unknown to build a profile and get much media attention.

The LP would need a celebrity candidate to gain traction. Clint Eastwood, who describes himself as a libertarian, would have been ideal.

Penn & Teller, both committed libertarians, would have been a fun Presidential ticket.

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1 minute ago, GiGi said:

Trump is going to come out here and lie -CNN.

Getting some whisky and a cigar out for this.

Me too - I hope they go after him in the questions.

 

Question 1:  Should we stop the count?

Question 2:  If the count stops theh you lose as it stands?  Do you still want to stop the count?

Edited by DeeTillEhDeh
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1 hour ago, Bishop Briggs said:

Yes but the Democrats believed the polls and were expecting Biden to win by a landslide. Then panic set in last night.

Counting late ballots are THE opportunity to steal a tight election. Much depends on which party controls the elections. 

As a libertarian, I despise Trump and Biden equally. They are and their parties are an affront to freedom and democracy.

I hate to say it, your out on a bit of a limb here;

Pennsylvania will have cast circa 7m votes by the end.  In order to shift the needle by 1% you're looking at falsifying circa 70,000 ballots (in a race with is roughly 50:50).

It's 7,000 for a return of 0.1%!

How would the Dems or Republicans know that 70,000 was enough on election day or the 4th or 5th?  Never mind the logistics of co-ordinating 70,000 fraudulent votes without getting caught?

Yours,

Occam's razor

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13 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Jorgensen's doing great . . . 

Less than half the votes that Johnson got 4 years ago - what's happened there?

Gone to Trump?

Or not bothering to vote?

A mixture of going to Trump, going to Biden and not voting. However, 2 million votes would be much better (almost double IIRC) than every LP candidate except Johnson.

She's had no money to compete with Trump and Biden who raised hundreds of millions from big business.

To put it context, Bloomberg personally spent over $100 million to support Biden in key states like Florida and Georgia. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Fratelli said:

Wasn't aware how long it had been since they'd had a one term president. Real boot in the baws for Trump which he'll be remembered for. Lovely stuff.

He'll be the second one-term Republican president in their past three, though. In that time they've lost to four landslides, and they've won the popular vote once in the past 8 elections.

In the long term the country is getting away from the Republicans. 

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