Jump to content

The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, GordonS said:

That 2% left thing isn't reliable, it turns out. We don't really know how many are left. If Biden is winning them 2-to-1 there needs to be 40,000 left, and we just don't really know. I don't think the people running the count do either. 

...there is apparently 40,000 votes left in Georgia luckily enough. 


Fun times ahead

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Highland Capital said:

They had a pro-independence Governor at one point.  Weird that no-one has called it for Trump yet - he's miles ahead there and the Democrats never win it.

I think they aren't opening any postal votes until next week, and there will be even more there than elsewhere as all senior citizens get one automatically (and presumably it is a bit cold for queueing in November). Trump will obviously win but they won't want to call it in case something mad happens with the postal vote.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

I think they aren't opening any postal votes until next week, and there will be even more there than elsewhere as all senior citizens get one automatically (and presumably it is a bit cold for queueing in November). Trump will obviously win but they won't want to call it in case something mad happens with the postal vote.

Turnout in Alaska is also normally quite poor, so the effect of mail-in ballots is unknown. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, charger29 said:

This site gives the updates for the important remaining states as they come in. Quite handy.

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

That's really good, but as he says, he's taking the figures for remaining votes from the NYT estimation, which has turned out not to be completely reliable. 

Edit - if you look back 3 hours you'll see the number of votes remaining is halved, without any changes to anything else.

Edited by GordonS
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Highland Capital said:

Most of the TV stations in Britain and America haven't yet called Arizona for Biden.  Fox did ages ago so if Biden wins one more state (apart from Alaska), he's won it.  How ironic would that be - Fox News would be announcing Trump's loss well before everyone else.

If it ends up being announced on Fox by someone like Hannity or Carlson...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, charger29 said:

This site gives the updates for the important states as they come in. Quite handy.

 

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

 

That’s a cracking site though may be addictive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's really good, but as he says, he's taking the figures for remaining votes from the NYT estimation, which has turned out not to be completely reliable. 
Edit - if you look back 3 hours you'll see the number of votes remaining is halved, without any changes to anything else.
Yeah, the number of votes remaining is pretty useless. Helpful place for all the other stuff though.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, charger29 said:
12 minutes ago, GordonS said:
That's really good, but as he says, he's taking the figures for remaining votes from the NYT estimation, which has turned out not to be completely reliable. 
Edit - if you look back 3 hours you'll see the number of votes remaining is halved, without any changes to anything else.

Yeah, the number of votes remaining is pretty useless. Helpful place for all the other stuff though.

It's a brilliant bit of work and as good as we could hope for.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Just remember though Georgia is a big armed forces state and they’ll likely be for Trump?

Trump hasn't exactly endeared himself to the armed forces. He's a draft dodger who slagged off McCain who is seen as a hero.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, GordonS said:

That's really good, but as he says, he's taking the figures for remaining votes from the NYT estimation, which has turned out not to be completely reliable. 

Edit - if you look back 3 hours you'll see the number of votes remaining is halved, without any changes to anything else.

Have you cashed in on Georgia yet? I'm finally getting nervous. Could the remaining votes are from mad Trumpy farmers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Gaz said:

Trump hasn't exactly endeared himself to the armed forces. He's a draft dodger who slagged off McCain who is seen as a hero.

Polls conducted by a military newspaper have shown a few times that Trump is well ahead among ex-soldiers, but Biden leads among serving members. 

Considering their votes come in after election day, I don't imagine they're enjoying watching the commander in chief screaming for the votes not to be counted either.

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

Have you cashed in on Georgia yet? I'm finally getting nervous. Could the remaining votes are from mad Trumpy farmers.

I decided I would cash out if it fell below 125%. It's sitting at 130.58 right now and it's been bopping around at that level for a while.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, btb said:

This is torture, they'd have been better settling it by arm wrestling - best of one!

Trump has tiny hands and terrible posture, Joe looks like he enjoys a half and half and holding the bar up. Would have the house on sleepy Joe there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...