The US Presidential election prediction thread

[Gordon EF]

Just now, Shotgun said:

I'm polite and respectful to everyone I meet...until they give me reason not to be. The amount of threats and abuse I've received, both online and in person simply because I'm not a Republican would make mother Teresa pick up a baseball bat and after being on the wrong end for years, I make no apologies for giving it right back to them. 

Really I'm not pinning anything on individuals like you. I'm guilty of getting it up folk as much as the next man. Realistically what you or I or any other voter does makes next to no difference. I'm not saying you're a dick for slagging folk off or you're responsible for Trump. Because getting it up folk who've been dicks is natural human behaviour and you as an individual simply don't have any kind of power to influence things on that scale. We've all had a good laugh at the "I voted for Brexit and now my export business is going bust" types and why not?

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Look, some of the 74 million who voted for Trump may have misjudged him the first time round. But they've had years and countless examples of what a sub-human c**t the man is. It would take hours to type out even a fraction of them. And yet they voted for him again. Not because the  mean liberals called them out on their shit but because they like what he said, they like what he did and they like the damage and division he has created. Very, very few of them would've voted for Biden no matter how meekly we liberals accepted their insults.

I'm not talking about meekly accepting insults but the reality in all of these types of binary situations (independence vs unionism, remain vs leave, Democrats vs Republicans) is that if you can get 10% of the other side to switch, you're absolutely laughing. The 10% most likely to switch aren't the ones walking around in MAGA hats, storming the Capitol or calling you a libtard on facebook. But if the broad strategy of the Democrats and liberals is to spend the next weeks and months getting it right up everyone who voted Trump and insulting them, then you'll just make that 10% defensive and you'll have zero chance of ever getting any of them.

That's not something for you to consider, it's not your job. But if I was part of the Democratic leadership, it's something I'd be giving a lot of thought to.

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And if a deposed leader calling on an armed mob to storm the seat of government with the intent of nullifying a democratic election so he can remain in power doesn't qualify as Fascism, then I wonder what exactly Trump would have to do before we can call him what he really is.

You can call him what you like. I'm just saying that if Democrats as a whole keep calling Trump and particularly all Trump voters fascists and racists, they won't win many of them over. 

[Gordon EF]

1 minute ago, Shotgun said:

Obama received an average of 30 death threats a day. These started when he was a junior senator and he's still getting them today. His wife and children have also been targeted. Yes, the majority of Americans voted him but it's ridiculous to discount the number of heavily armed white supremacists who would like nothing better than to see that "uppity nigger strung up from the nearest tree". That's a direct quote from a local restaurant owner here in rural Colorado. Business went up after he said it. These people are the ones Trump described as "very fine" and "very special." And he loves them.

Open your eyes. 

Right but CYG is talking about some super duper shit storm because Harris isn't just black but also a woman. Fucking hell, I know there's racists in the US. What I'm saying is how many of these racists are going to go to extra special lengths they haven't gone to previously because Kamala Harris is a woman and not a man?

[coprolite]

1 minute ago, Gordon EF said:

 

You can call him what you like. I'm just saying that if Democrats as a whole keep calling Trump and particularly all Trump voters fascists and racists, they won't win many of them over. 

I tend to agree with you that disrespecting the other side can entrench that bipartisanism, but i think that it's reasonable to point out to these people that they're supporting racists and fascists. 

[Gordon EF]

6 minutes ago, coprolite said:

I tend to agree with you that disrespecting the other side can entrench that bipartisanism, but i think that it's reasonable to point out to these people that they're supporting racists and fascists. 

Yep, me too, to a point. But I think what's tended to happen far too much is slipping into calling everyone who votes for Brexit / Trump racist. And I'm talking purely about effectiveness here, not necessarily about what's right or wrong. If Trump gets 63 million votes in 2016 and the Democrats spend four years calling him a racist fascist and then he gets 74 million votes in 2020, I think it's fair to question how effective calling him a fascist has been so far.

It's clear that people either aren't listening when he's called a fascist, don't believe he's a fascist despite being told that, or don't care.

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Gordon EF

[Shotgun]

13 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Right but CYG is talking about some super duper shit storm because Harris isn't just black but also a woman. Fucking hell, I know there's racists in the US. What I'm saying is how many of these racists are going to go to extra special lengths they haven't gone to previously because Kamala Harris is a woman and not a man?

I used to frequent a gun range in Denver. It changed hands and the next (and last) time I visited, they were selling printed images of Hillary Clinton's face for customers to use as targets. The guy told me they were very popular "Because she's a bitch and we'd all love to see her dead". Now obviously that doesn't mean those customers would ever take things further than just fantasising about shooting a Democrat woman in the face but then you look at the white supremacists, lunatics and social inadequates that Trump and the Republican party have been courting for years. It isn't hyperbole to worry about what they might do if they were faced with a woman president, and a black one at that.

If you don't mind me saying so, you've chosen a very strange hill to die on Gordon.

[Gordon EF]

10 minutes ago, Shotgun said:

I used to frequent a gun range in Denver. It changed hands and the next (and last) time I visited, they were selling printed images of Hillary Clinton's face for customers to use as targets. The guy told me they were very popular "Because she's a bitch and we'd all love to see her dead". Now obviously that doesn't mean those customers would ever take things further than just fantasising about shooting a Democrat woman in the face but then you look at the white supremacists, lunatics and social inadequates that Trump and the Republican party have been courting for years. It isn't hyperbole to worry about what they might do if they were faced with a woman president, and a black one at that.

If you don't mind me saying so, you've chosen a very strange hill to die on Gordon.

I genuinely don't see this as a hill I'm fighting on. I think you see this as me defending Republicans and MAGA nutters when it's something I've not done once.

I mean I've effectively said I know there are racists and misogynists and some of them are willing to actively cause trouble. I think the kind of people that need worrying about tend to be all three. I think they'd have been angry when Obama ran, angry when Clinton ran and will be angry when Harris runs. I just personally think they're not going to be significantly angrier because Harris ticks both their boxes because I don't think that's how people work. And you just keep telling me that some people are racist or some people are misogynists. What am I supposed to do with that?

Edited January 14, 2021 by Gordon EF

[Benjamin_Nevis]

In all honesty I don't believe that a few thousand impotent AR-15 owning momma's boys are going to be a serious physical threat to Harris. Most of them would mess their boxers if confronted by an actual BAME woman.

If anything the bigger worry is the extent to which Trumpism has infected law enforcement, perhaps even the military. If that's happened to a large enough extent, democracy in the US is going to have a serious fucking problem. The fact that two of the Capital police have been suspended with another 15 being investigated for being involved in the riot is a massive fucking issue. The US already absolutely fetishises law enforcement and the military to a cringeworthy degree, I don't think some sort of military style coup is completely out of the question. 

[Anonapersona]

2 hours ago, 101 said:

I was speaking to my friend from MN and her dad is a paid up believer in MAGA although after the riot/ break in to the capitol building he did say trump was a bad person. So I think there are voters out there you can convince if you make the country a better place. She is certain if they could abolish private healthcare in the first term that he would vote Dem in the next election. He was really worried about "socialism" which of course is completely irrational as he didn't understand that Tax would only be raised on the wealthy. I think it is baby steps these aren't that stupid people but he's on the breadline and very easily sold scare stories. His wife on the other hand has been lost to QAnon and is a list cause. However I don't believe there are more than a few million Americans that are a lost cause if Biden can double the minimum wage, roll out state funded health care and increase tax on the rich then the Democrats will be in a strong position come 2024.

State funded healthcare probably won't ever be a thing. I worked in the industry for four years. Granted, it was in the IT dept. but still, the healthcare system is an absolute monster that keeps a lot of people in a job.

There's also the big problem of universal healthcare being associated with communism and massive tax hikes.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

Its hard to understand why it all kicked off last week, where did people get all their anger from

 

 

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

3 minutes ago, Anonapersona said:

State funded healthcare probably won't ever be a thing. I worked in the industry for four years. Granted, it was in the IT dept. but still, the healthcare system is an absolute monster that keeps a lot of people in a job.

There's also the big problem of universal healthcare being associated with communism and massive tax hikes.

Its also the biggest racket in human history, far too many people make far too much money out of it so its too entrenched a system to fundamentally change.

[NotThePars]

I think Ilhan Omar is the likely barometer of how seriously people need to take threats to Democratic politicians. Every psycho with a gun that would likely target someone like Harris knows who Omar is and has, in their heads, even more reasons to get wound up about her.

[Anonapersona]

4 minutes ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

Its also the biggest racket in human history, far too many people make far too much money out of it so its too entrenched a system to fundamentally change.

Pretty much.

Hospitals are just as bad as the insurance companies. Bunch of scheming b*****ds.

 

[Shotgun]

23 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

And you just keep telling me that some people are racist or some people are misogynists. What am I supposed to do with that?

I'm telling you because you don't appear to understand how dangerous Trump and his fanatics have the potential to be. I have a different perspective, being a resident here and have seen and interacted with these people up close. I can tell you that pacifying or ignoring them is not the answer. Likewise; blaming the Democrats for Trump's popularity is  is not a path I'm willing to go down. His own supporters are responsible for his election - nobody else. And as for the "good", non-Fascist conservatives - they knew perfectly well who Trump was and what he stood for. And yet they voted for him anyway. @Sergeant Wilson's phrase "I wasn't a Nazi, I just helped out when they were busy" comes to mind.

Anyway, I'm not long in from a night shift and I need to go to bed. Go get yourself a drink from the fridge and pretend I bought it for you.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

1 minute ago, Anonapersona said:

Pretty much.

Hospitals are just as bad as the insurance companies. Bunch of scheming b*****ds.

 

Absolutely. My ex is American, its incredible to witness what goes on. They are desperate to medicate her 8 year old daugher cause she's a wee bit hyper. She's just a normal kid.

[Anonapersona]

3 minutes ago, Shotgun said:

I'm telling you because you don't appear to understand how dangerous Trump and his fanatics have the potential to be. I have a different perspective, being a resident here and have seen and interacted with these people up close. I can tell you that pacifying or ignoring them is not the answer. Likewise; blaming the Democrats for Trump's popularity is  is not a path I'm willing to go down. His own supporters are responsible for his election - nobody else. And as for the "good", non-Fascist conservatives - they knew perfectly well who Trump was and what he stood for. And yet they voted for him anyway. @Sergeant Wilson's phrase "I wasn't a Nazi, I just helped out when they were busy" comes to mind.

Anyway, I'm not long in from a night shift and I need to go to bed. Go get yourself a drink from the fridge and pretend I bought it for you.

There are a lot of fascists in America that would be horrified if you called them a fascist.

It runs deeper than most people realize.

[coprolite]

1 hour ago, Gordon EF said:

Yep, me too, to a point. But I think what's tended to happen far too much is slipping into calling everyone who votes for Brexit / Trump racist. And I'm talking purely about effectiveness here, not necessarily about what's right or wrong. If Trump gets 63 million votes in 2016 and the Democrats spend four years calling him a racist fascist and then he gets 74 million votes in 2020, I think it's fair to question how effective calling him a fascist has been so far.

It's clear that people either aren't listening when he's called a fascist, don't believe he's a fascist despite being told that, or don't care.

 

Or they like fascists 

[Gordon EF]

25 minutes ago, coprolite said:

Or they like fascists 

Yeah, that as well. 

[Gordon EF]

1 hour ago, Anonapersona said:

There are a lot of fascists in America that would be horrified if you called them a fascist.

It runs deeper than most people realize.

100% this. A big part of the reason calling people stuff like this doesn't work is because, even if they are, the genuinely don't think it.

[Jim McLean's Ghost]

Amazing story

 

[NotThePars]

11 minutes ago, Jim McLean's Ghost said:

Amazing story

 

That's genuinely class. An underrated part of this presidency is how many secret service and deep state ghouls have just been driven insane by having to be in close proximity to the Trumps for four years. Imagine the tinnitus they've got from hearing Fox and Friends at 120 decibels 8 hours a day.

Edited January 14, 2021 by NotThePars