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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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23 minutes ago, Cyclizine said:

I can't disagree with you there, sweetcheeks. Nice to see you've got a wee bit of insight into your behaviour.

I know you are but what am I.

Brilliant. Also disliking all my posts whilst liking the one that proves me right does take a special type of stupid to pull off, fair play. 

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13 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

I know you are but what am I.

Brilliant. Also disliking all my posts whilst liking the one that proves me right does take a special type of stupid to pull off, fair play. 

Aw. Bless. Sorry you're struggling.

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41 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Back on track. Hard to believe this all went on without some big yins  knowing exactly what they were doing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sund-riot-national-guard/2021/01/10/fc2ce7d4-5384-11eb-a817-e5e7f8a406d6_story.html

Of course they knew. It was a blatant attempt ar insurrection and to impose a dictatorship. 

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3 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

Can he be done for treason? Attempted kidnapping? If he had a gun, attempted murder?

Think it was a taser, he mentioned it at the end of video about getting taken off him. Also the guy with the Camp Auschwitz t-shirt has been nabbed. Think the FBI are going to town as Trump was forever talking them down.

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31 minutes ago, Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier said:

Of course they knew. It was a blatant attempt ar insurrection and to impose a dictatorship. 

Once you have people showing up with a portable gallows, pipe bombs and zip ties then there is no way to characterise it as anything else. One possible scenario is that Trump was originally trying to ramp up pressure on Mike Pence and Republican senators to do his bidding and some fringe groups were taking the rhetoric a little more seriously than he intended, but then you have to ask why he gave the speech he did anyway when it was obvious Pence and McConnell hadn't folded, why he didn't use social media more effectively to try to get his rabble to cease and desist once they started going on the rampage, and why it took the National Guard so long to show up. Difficult to see how Trump is going to get away with this once he loses presidential immunity.

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I've always been interested in the NSA since the Snowden leaks a few years ago (reading his book just now). The senate/house really should be bringing in everyone high up in the NSA to find out exactly what information was given to whom.
There's no doubt they had all of the information on death threats, hostages, bombs beforehand. They would have had automated keyword searches scouring the internet for these exact words. Even if those typing the messages were hiding their identity and location, a general understanding of what was about to happen could have been spotted by a blind man.
Whoever in the chain of command between the NSA and FBI said, "Nah. No need to pass this along to my boss." should be out on there arse within a matter of weeks.

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1 minute ago, MixuFruit said:

Wouldn't be that surprised if once the FBI are done with all the Nazis on Parler they go after the guys who did this.

Is that strictly hacking, in that they used publicly available information, similar to what you did to show everyone's dotting patterns and history? 

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I'm concerned about all the twats ransacking the offices last week and how much information they might have got out of unlocked draws/computers. Could imagine people sharing addresses of legislators' families and friends or of Dem Party members online so that Trumpeteers can go and hassle them, or worse.

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39 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Once you have people showing up with a portable gallows, pipe bombs and zip ties then there is no way to characterise it as anything else. One possible scenario is that Trump was originally trying to ramp up pressure on Mike Pence and Republican senators to do his bidding and some fringe groups were taking the rhetoric a little more seriously than he intended, but then you have to ask why he gave the speech he did anyway when it was obvious Pence and McConnell hadn't folded, why he didn't use social media more effectively to try to get his rabble to cease and desist once they started going on the rampage, and why it took the National Guard so long to show up. Difficult to see how Trump is going to get away with this once he loses presidential immunity.

There's no doubt that he well and truly overstepped the mark, however it would be dangerous to make a martyr of this man as it's not just a small lunatic fringe which support him but a huge percentage of the population.

In normal times it wouldn't be quite so serious but given the perfect storm of events it could actually lead to a civil war.

The likes of Pence and quite a few others have obviously distanced themselves and attempted to disown their association with him, but I think everyone knows that this is just political self preservation as they were happy to stand by him while a second term was still a distinct possibility.

The USA is a seriously divided country and coming down hard on Trump (although he undoubtedly deserves it) could be just the catalyst to kick it all off and I don't think ANYONE (apart from Nancy) wants to risk that.

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1 minute ago, WATTOO said:

There's no doubt that he well and truly overstepped the mark, however it would be dangerous to make a martyr of this man as it's not just a small lunatic fringe which support him but a huge percentage of the population.

In normal times it wouldn't be quite so serious but given the perfect storm of events it could actually lead to a civil war.

The likes of Pence and quite a few others have obviously distanced themselves and attempted to disown their association with him, but I think everyone knows that this is just political self preservation as they were happy to stand by him while a second term was still a distinct possibility.

The USA is a seriously divided country and coming down hard on Trump (although he undoubtedly deserves it) could be just the catalyst to kick it all off and I don't think ANYONE (apart from Nancy) wants to risk that.

I don’t buy the argument that the authorities should not go after Trump because of potential blowback.

I think Trump’s biggest potential problem is at state level and I don’t think there is a reasonable argument for them to go softly because of the existing divide in the country.

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11 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I don’t buy the argument that the authorities should not go after Trump because of potential blowback.

I think Trump’s biggest potential problem is at state level and I don’t think there is a reasonable argument for them to go softly because of the existing divide in the country.

The Republicans made this problem and they should really own it, it was obvious to everyone that this guy was always going to go "rogue".

I get what you're saying but the repercussions could be very serious indeed.

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