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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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Oh, and also on smaller parties - the Greens weren't on the ballot paper in Pennsylvania because they initially entered a placeholder candidate before trying to switch it to their real candidate. Democrats challenged that, a Republican judge ruled in favour of the Greens, but the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled for the Democrats - 5 Democrat judges ruled in their favour, 2 Republican judges said the filing errors could be fixed.

In Wisconsin the Green candidate had enough signatures to get on the ballot - but not when they removed those with out-of-date addresses. The state's electoral commissions split 3-3 on party grounds to remove him from the ballot papers, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled 4-3 to keep him off the ballot papers on 14 September, saying it was too late to change it.

In Michigan the Greens got 0.2%, in Georgia and Arizona they were write-in candidates, the local Greens in Rhode Island deliberately kept them off the ballot papers and in Nevada they weren't on it at all.

With thin majorities in so many states, on such small twists does history turn. 

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4 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said:

Ron and, to a lesser extent, Rand Paul are the only Republicans have had a lot of support from libertarian activists. Ron was the LP candidate for President in 1988 and has since rejoined the party after leaving Congress. He is far more libertarian than recent LP candidates for President, notably Gary Johnson.

In practice, Libertarians are just as willing to vote Democrat if there is no LP candidate but most will abstain.

 

Ron Paul, Gary Johnson, David Koch... that's not co-incidental.

I'm sure not enough Libertarians would have considered switching to Trump to move Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, but Georgia? The Libertarian vote there is 6 times more than the current Biden lead.

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As sure as I’d shag Rachel Stevens I’m adamant he will f**k of to Russia soon.  They were talking about him being a flight risk on the news last night.  
 

He will fly to his Ayrshire golf course.  Hang about with the fat old bigots there for a bit.  Then fly to Belarus where he will bolt into the Russian Embassy for save haven.  Assange style.

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35 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Which elected Democrats, or Democrat candidates, want to do that? 

There's a very fair case that the police are over-funded, which leads to them driving around making up things to do. It also wastes resources that could be much more effectively spent elsewhere in reducing crime. But I don't think any Democrats are in the 'abolish the police' camp.

To me the single biggest difference between the two US parties is that the Republicans have their full-on wingnuts inside the party.

For someone to be described as extreme left they'd have to at least believe in the nationalisation of industry, the abolition of private property, salaries based on need, collectivisation of farms. No Democrat supports anything like that.

Its not necessarily that they are underfunded. If you look at depts like Flint PD they are woefully underfunded. The reason other depts drive about in the humvee vehicles etc is that they buy ex forces armoured vehicles using civil forfeiture money. Civil forfeiture is like Proceeds of Crime act money here except POCA cash doesnt go to the police. They legally are not allowed to spend that money on personnel (or so my understanding of it is) which means you have the depts having the gucci kit but no where near the staffing levels they require.

America desperately needs some kind of police reform, there are some states where there isnt even any requirement to have any formal training to be a law enforcement officer. 

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5 minutes ago, Lofarl said:

As sure as I’d shag Rachel Stevens I’m adamant he will f**k of to Russia soon.  They were talking about him being a flight risk on the news last night.  
 

He will fly to his Ayrshire golf course.  Hang about with the fat old bigots there for a bit.  Then fly to Belarus where he will bolt into the Russian Embassy for save haven.  Assange style.

Predict he’ll visit Turnberry in January.

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5 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Its not necessarily that they are underfunded. If you look at depts like Flint PD they are woefully underfunded. The reason other depts drive about in the humvee vehicles etc is that they buy ex forces armoured vehicles using civil forfeiture money. Civil forfeiture is like Proceeds of Crime act money here except POCA cash doesnt go to the police. They legally are not allowed to spend that money on personnel (or so my understanding of it is) which means you have the depts having the gucci kit but no where near the staffing levels they require.

America desperately needs some kind of police reform, there are some states where there isnt even any requirement to have any formal training to be a law enforcement officer. 

Obviously I'm generalising, no doubt there will be counties and states that are in different positions. A lot of the rustbelt counties are financially knackered. 

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4 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Ron Paul, Gary Johnson, David Koch... that's not co-incidental.

I'm sure not enough Libertarians would have considered switching to Trump to move Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, but Georgia? The Libertarian vote there is 6 times more than the current Biden lead.

Lincoln Chafee, former Democrat Governor of Rhode Island, sought the LP nomination this year.

Bob Barr, former Georgia Senator, was the LP candidate in 2008. He was very popular in the state but LP many activists distrusted him.

The chart below in on the Georgia LP website. It helps to explain why the LP takes votes from both main parties.

lit-card-chart.png.pagespeed.ce.YQaYhU5y

 

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1 hour ago, Bishop Briggs said:

Abolishing immigration controls, legalising all drugs and free trade (abolishing tariffs) should really appeal to Republican/Trump supporters? 🤣

You really know f**k all about American politics! 😂

Abolition of the tax authorities, abolition of the Social Security system, no gun control; definitely all part of the nut job agenda.

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20 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said:

So a section of Trump's supporters voted for him because they opposed his policies?

You're making a complete arse of yourself here. Like Trump, you should have quit while you weren't quite so much behind

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24 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said:

Neither Trump nor the Republican Party proposed any of those policies. 

Both the Republicans and Democrats (mainstream ones anyway) favour a strong American military-industrial complex with an imperial role globally and strong federal institutions and regulations domestically. Liberterianism is ideologically opposed to that and is basically a form of anarchism that is pro-laissez faire capitalism.

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