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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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19 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Libertarians don't like either side.

They'll either vote for their candidate or not vote at all.

I'm any case there has always been a small percentage of the vote going to other parties - anywhere between 3% to 5%.

The Libertarian agenda should really appeal to much of the fuckwit Republican/Trump supporters.

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Why would Georgian republicans vote democrats in the runoff if he's  appointing republicans anyway? Why would black Atlanta voters turn out to vote democrat?
One likely to get a place will be Kasich who publically said to vote Biden and who made an appearance (albeit online) during the Democratic Convention.
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7 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Why would Georgian republicans vote democrats in the runoff if he's  appointing republicans anyway? Why would black Atlanta voters turn out to vote democrat?

He obviously has to get the balance right but he definitely doesn't need to appoint radical socialistic types that will confirm moderates' fears before the run offs on Jan 5th. I'd chuck a couple of soft anti Trumpers in on a temporary basis but then I'm not a Dem strategist on the ground.

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36 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Libertarians don't like either side.

 

They'll either vote for their candidate or not vote at all.

 

In any case there has always been a small percentage of the vote going to other parties - anywhere between 3% to 5%.

 

Sure, but there's no doubt they're much more Trumpy than Democrat. A similar thing happened last time, with the Green vote in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan being higher than the amount by which Clinton lost. Obviously those voters don't regard the Democrats as good enough, but surely they prefer them to Trump.

FPTP sucks, and so does the electoral college.

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Just now, MixuFruit said:

Why not just not appoint till after the elections? One of the things Trump did pretty effectively was just railroad protocol around appointing/confirming people when it suited him.

I don't think they'd start officially till after the handover and probably not until confirmed by the Senate. He could just propose them and drop them on Jan 6th. Just an idea, but I did hear somewhere that he's considering it.

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10 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Kasich will just vote with the republicans now Trump is gone surely? What does he gain by supporting the democrats in any meaningful way now that has been achieved?

Kasich's interview on CNN yesterday essentially confirmed this. Lots of babbling about imaginary FAR LEFTISTS in the Democrat party and how Biden must reject them and instead be a moderate centre-right, hands across the aisle, side with us Republicans to get things done or else, Democrat.

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Guest Arthur Symington
34 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said:

Corrected my original post. Cheers 😂

Edit all you want and try as many P&B usernames as you can. You'll still be wrong, Andy.

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19 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

He obviously has to get the balance right but he definitely doesn't need to appoint radical socialistic types that will confirm moderates' fears before the run offs on Jan 5th. I'd chuck a couple of soft anti Trumpers in on a temporary basis but then I'm not a Dem strategist on the ground.

Radical socialists?

The Democrats aren't a far-left party. If anything, they're centre-right.

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15 minutes ago, yoda said:

Kasich's interview on CNN yesterday essentially confirmed this. Lots of babbling about imaginary FAR LEFTISTS in the Democrat party and how Biden must reject them and instead be a moderate centre-right, hands across the aisle, side with us Republicans to get things done or else, Democrat.

Nothing imaginary about the Dems having a far left fringe and the Republicans also clearly have a far right faction (they appear to have a genuine Nazi sympathizer on board now in the House from North Carolina). If you have a two party system, the parties are each going to cover a very broad spectrum of views.

Biden is highly likely to do a Bill Clinton and cosy up to the RINO faction of the Republicans rather than push the agenda he initially got elected on. His record over the years is far from radical and he was added to the Obama ticket for precisely that reason.

Edited by LongTimeLurker
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It's not impossible for the Dems to take another seat in North Carolina, 1.7% behind with 3% of votes still to be counted according to the NYT, which they won't announce till Tuesday. Don't think that 3% includes everything, like votes from expats etc. In which case they would only need one win in Georgia.

Edited by welshbairn
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14 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Nothing imaginary about the Dems having a far left fringe and the Republicans also clearly have a far right faction (they appear to have a genuine Nazi sympathizer on board now in the House from North Carolina). If you have a two party system, the parties are each going to cover a very broad spectrum of views.

Biden is highly likely to do a Bill Clinton and cosy up to the RINO faction of the Republicans rather than push the agenda he initially got elected on. His record over the years is far from radical and he was added to the Obama ticket for precisely that reason.

In the long run, if all Biden achieves in 4 years is to take the heat out of American politics, get the government functioning like a normal country, get a decent climate change plan going and shift Senate Republicans out of their Comrade Nyet behaviour, that could be enough. America's still in a dark place.

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President Trump was four years of publicity stunts and twitter feeds and saying whatever was going to set people off.  Biden doing four years of just not being Trump is an improvement in itself.

Remember the days when you weren't reminded on a daily basis who the American President was.

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