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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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8 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I’m hoping Biden’s reconciliatory approach will not extend to a Presidential pardon.  He will lose a large chunk of his own younger supporters early on if it does.

The more Trump behaves like a petulant child and outright insults Biden and refuses to accept the decision I'd think the less likely Biden will be to consider it. There's literally nothing in that for Biden at all. Trump's backers both in the media and the GOP seem to be backing off now and he only really retains the support of those nutjobs who were praying outside polling stations. The likes of Lindsay Graham will turn on him literally the second that it's politically expedient to do so. Trump is monumentally fucked imo. 

2021 will see Trump hopefully dragged out of the whitehouse like a crying toddler, Melania divorcing him and he and his family of utter c***s being nailed by the courts. It could be quite a good year. Watching his fragile ego crumble as his entire life and "empire" falls apart would be utterly fantastic. 

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He's got a big motive to keep the frivolous legal action going. In the small print of his website to raise funds for it, it says 60% of donations will go towards paying off his campaign debt.

Quote

60% to DJTP for deposit in DJTP’s 2020 General Election Account for the retirement of general election debt (up to a maximum of $2,800/$5,000) or, if such debt has been retired or any portion of the contribution would exceed the limit to the 2020 General Election Account, for deposit in DJTP’s Recount Account (up to a maximum of $2,800/$5,000); 40% to the RNC’s Operating account (up to a maximum of $35,500/$15,000); and any additional funds to the RNC for deposit in the RNC’s Legal Proceedings account or Headquarters account (up to a maximum of $213,000/$90,000).

Notwithstanding this allocation formula, a contributor may designate a contribution for a specific participant or participants. In addition, the allocation formula may change if any contribution would exceed applicable contribution limits or if DJTP receives sufficient funds to pay outstanding general election debts.

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Edited by welshbairn
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2 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Thankfully no reported activity from the right-wing militia types and hopefully it will stay so but some of the photographs of Trump supporter gatherings are worrying.

I wonder if and when he will choose to trigger the violence that many of these nut jobs will relish.  I do not see a concession on the horizon and a few more incendiary remarks could have serious consequences.

 

They are too busy getting down to the sounds of notorious Trumpsters Rage against the Machine to worry about shooting up the place.......yet.

Most of these militia types are like weekend bikers, a big front, it's the ones you don't see at these shindigs that are the OFTW.

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17 hours ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

Donald Trump
Rudi Giuliani
Johnny Rotten
Nigel Farage
Brett Favre 
James Woods
Kid Rock
Adolf Hitler
Satan
That p***k Bono (probably)


Your boys took a Hell of a beating.

If you have time, could you add Jack Nicklaus to this list of shame.

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2 hours ago, Day of the Lords said:
6 hours ago, Arthur Symington said:

Wannabe celebrity poser cúnt has been at it all week with anti-Trump* comments and has 'Divorced' as his status on Facebook.

We know what that's all about. One for the watch.

* Trump can be replaced with Biden.

Point still stands.

f**k off Jeremiah

It's Malky

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1 minute ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

Didn't take long for dorlomin to start acting weird.

There's definitely a weird parasocial relationship with Nate Silver brewing there... Making fun of "the hard left's" spelling while missing basic punctuation in your own post... It's a minter I'm afraid

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6 minutes ago, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

There's definitely a weird parasocial relationship with Nate Silver brewing there... Making fun of "the hard left's" spelling while missing basic punctuation in your own post... It's a minter I'm afraid

Tbf to him, if he hadn't just told us none of us would have even heard of Nate Silver and 538. :1eye

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Just now, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

Aye he's been certainly been under the radar

Like most of us I've been sitting in my Mum's basement trying to figure out what's going on from the letter pages of her back copies of Woman's Weekly. 

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So here's a thing.

In Georgia the Libertarians are on 61,829. Biden's lead is currently 9,160.

In Arizona the Libertarians are on 49,406. Biden's lead is currently 18,610.

In Wisconsin the Libertarians are on 38,271. Biden's lead is currently 17,732.

In Pennsylvania the Libertarians are on 77,415. Biden's lead is currently 37,298.

You don't even need to move many of those votes to Trump and he's re-elected. 

Libertarians don't like either side.

 

They'll either vote for their candidate or not vote at all.

 

In any case there has always been a small percentage of the vote going to other parties - anywhere between 3% to 5%.

 

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I think AOC has maybe gone in a bit early and hard to try to force the democrats to pick progressives that a republican Senate won't  approve anyway.
They seem to forget that Moscow Mitch will almost certainly have to approve them - I know he has a good working relationship with Biden, despite their political differences, but he isn't going to accept many (if any) progressives in the cabinet.
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3 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

I think AOC has maybe gone in a bit early and hard to try to force the democrats to pick progressives that a republican Senate won't  approve anyway.

If I was Biden and thinking of going even half way to where she wants, I still make very public provisional appointments of moderate Republicans to key positions, at least till the Senate reruns in Georgia in January, then change them if the Dems win, and maybe if they don't.

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