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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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Looks increasingly likely that America will set a new record for turnout, north of 66%. To compare that with UK record turnout of 82% and would beat the record Scottish Elections which is a mear 59%

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I think it's rather a daft way of looking at it.
There will be parts of the major coastal cities that you wouldn't dream of staying, but your criterion would render them ideal.
And that's your opinion. I'd still feel more comfortable in a 80% Biden area than an 80% Trump area. There will be lunatics everywhere and Biden voters are hardly Saints, but I'd still rather play the odds.
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3 minutes ago, 19QOS19 said:
20 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:
I think it's rather a daft way of looking at it.
There will be parts of the major coastal cities that you wouldn't dream of staying, but your criterion would render them ideal.

And that's your opinion. I'd still feel more comfortable in a 80% Biden area than an 80% Trump area. There will be lunatics everywhere and Biden voters are hardly Saints, but I'd still rather play the odds.

 

In what way would you feel uncomfortable?

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1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

How they get the nuclear codes back is what moves this beyond the realm of comedy.

I'm hoping they've given him a fake suitcase with buttons so when he presses it over at the CIA HQ they get alerted and can press it if it's sincere and the correct shout but if not it just gets ignored. 

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Just now, 19QOS19 said:
4 minutes ago, NotThePars said:
 
In what way would you feel uncomfortable?

That I'd be more likely to bump into one of the crazies you see on the tele.

I think you'll be grand. This feels like the mirror image of believing if you visit Chicago or New York you'll be shot as soon as you step off the plane. It's a bit hysterical. I had an ex who regularly went to Wyoming with her family and despite being gay and a big lefty they remarkably got through every visit without being sacrificed to Moloch or whatever they do deep in Trump country.

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I think you'll be grand. This feels like the mirror image of believing if you visit Chicago or New York you'll be shot as soon as you step off the plane. It's a bit hysterical. I had an ex who regularly went to Wyoming with her family and despite being gay and a big lefty they remarkably got through every visit without being sacrificed to Moloch or whatever they do deep in Trump country.
I know. The reality is I could probably visit every area and find very little trouble if I didn't act like an idiot.
It's America... crazies everywhere.. 
 
This is true.
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46 minutes ago, Michael W said:

Can one of the networks hurry up and call this so I can get my Biden payout? We all know Biden's won and I'd prefer Trump was removed before things start to escalate. 

I see Ladbrokes have stopped taking bets. What are the other bookies saying about it?

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Anyone worried about recounts should read this:

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/recounts-rarely-reverse-election-results/amp/

 

This was from 2016 when some were mooting recounts to challenge Trump then.

 

"Recounts also typically don’t change the margin by an amount that would be large enough to affect the result of this year’s presidential election (2016). The mean swing between the top two candidates in the 27 recounts was 282 votes, with a median of 219. The biggest swing came in Florida’s 2000 presidential election recount, when Al Gore cut 1,247 votes off George W. Bush"

 

 

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1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

This is where it gets personal and arguably petty.  It would probably be in the interest of the US for Trump to eventually concede in some way, shape or form however graceless it might be.

I do not want that.  I want a popcorn inducing stand-off with him and his obnoxious family shamed and humiliated and being forced to concede.  We deserve such a spectacle.

 

It would definitely be in the interest of the US for Trump to have a measured and dignified response to losing but there's nothing the world has seen over the last four years that has shown he is capable of such behaviour.

This is going to be the most incredible melt-down ever as the more he wants to have the last word, the more irrational his outbursts will be. A shame, really.*

 

*Nah, it isnae.

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46 minutes ago, 19QOS19 said:
3 hours ago, Monkey Tennis said:
Only the first of those applies in this case I'm afraid.
The point is a serious one though.  Even in states that hugely favour Trump, there will be people, millions of them in fact, who utterly reject what he's about.  Some will belong to groups absolutely marginalised and threatened by his behaviour; some will be activists, devoted to causes which oppose his; while all will be absolutely horrified by his current antics.
It's a dangerous game to dismiss people based on where they're from.  Just ask a Mexican rapist.

Being regarded as "Tory" due to my location, I do get what you're saying. But I won't lie, I'd still rather avoid places with massive swings towards Trump and what he stands for when I visit America. There will be decent people in every part of the country but it's that batshit crazy a place that I'd still feel more comfortable playing the odds and staying in places where the vast majority of people didn't vote for a raving mad lunatic.

Tbf ive been to Tennessee (memphis and nashville), Texas (Austin), North Carolina, Florida (Tampa area, Miami and Orlando), California (all over), Chicago, Vegas, NYC, DC and Boston and actually found the people in Boston to be the biggest shower of arseholes imaginable. Red Sox fans racially abusing their own players, horrible accents (bit like East coast accents being shite here) and just overall a quite uncomfortable city to visit. Conversely the people in Nashville and Austin are on the whole really lovely welcoming people (admittedly both these cities lean more democrat) where I felt genuinely safe to explore etc. Sometimes California gets a bad rep but I like it, even going into some of the ‘hoods’ in LA in search of good mexican food (uber driver was having a shit fit that we wanted to go to Boyle Heights) and met some amazing people. Its not really a case of Democrat areas being ‘better’ or ‘safer’ to visit. Its a mental country on the whole but id go see as much of it as possible. The only time ive ever felt genuinely ‘threatened’ or really uncomfortable was at a music festival in Daytona beach which had a lot of ‘maga’ flags (Hank Williams Jnr was one of the acts so explains a lot). 

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4 minutes ago, 19QOS19 said:

I know. The reality is I could probably visit every area and find very little trouble if I didn't act like an idiot. This is true.

Exactly... like any country.. spent a fair amount of time there and never had any bother..

Or just go to Canada, it's a watered down version of America, very safe

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3 minutes ago, Bohemian said:

Exactly... like any country.. spent a fair amount of time there and never had any bother..

Or just go to Canada, it's a watered down version of America, very safe

Just be wary of friendly banter, they don't take kindly to teasing. I'm not too skilled at keeping my gob shut.

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