The US Presidential election prediction thread

[GordonS]

17 minutes ago, Arthur Symington said:

You presume wrong. Thanks for playing, champ.

Hopefully you don't have kids.

I do have kids, they're lovely people with strong values like compassion, kindness, decency and the courage to stand up for what's right, even when it's hard.

Trump is a danger - a physical danger - to people like that.

Now take your hypocritical mewling and f**k off.

[dorlomin]

9 minutes ago, Arch Stanton said:

 

 

Decision desks are independent or at least semi independent of the network, including the Fox one. They have a set of criteria they use to call elections, they apply these to states for electoral college votes but also to senate and house races. They tend to wait till a count is above the recall level before they call the election. I understand they do take factors like where the outstanding votes are and how the trend in incoming votes is going. Fox called AZ (I know AP did and I cannot remember if its the same team). None of them will call PA until its beyond the recall percentage unless they are incredibly sure. There is some uncertainty with the make up of the Clarke County ballots in Nevada so there is some trepidation on that. Decision Desk HQ are data analysts and so far the only one to call PA. Who ever calls it first will get a big bump in viewing figures. 

 

Edited I doubt anyone cares but Twitter has told blue tick holders not to call the election until the major networks do. So you will see some dancing around it by well known political journalists, data scientists and political scientists. 

Edited November 6, 2020 by dorlomin

[AberdeenHibee]

3 minutes ago, Busta Nut said:

I hope Trump shoots himself live on telly for his speak as he concedes.

Hopefully he does some Harikiri on live TV, although would need a chainsaw to get through that fat orange belly. 

@Arthur Symington your thoughts on the best way Donald could go?  Shame COVID didn't do the job. 

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

22 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Arthur Symington is that sinner to saint etc guy, yes?

I thought he was chairman mao? Or did he get binned and I missed it?

[welshbairn]

33 minutes ago, GordonS said:

No, and a serving member from New York may well be different to one from Georgia. If the cash-out starts to drop from where it is I'm taking it.

 

Mine is dropping a smidgeon on Paddy Power, but it's still 1/16 on Biden, 13/2 Trump for new bets. Unsure, definitely wavering.

P.S. f**k it, I'm letting it roll. According to Alex Github NYT guy Trump needs 60% of the remaining votes, many of them which aren't military.

Edited November 6, 2020 by welshbairn

[Miguel Sanchez]

Just now, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

I thought he was chairman mao? Or did he get binned and I missed it?

Mao got binned a while back.

[Mark Connolly]

I have just opened the non-zero of a non-zero number of beers for the evening

[Bohemian]

20 minutes ago, Arthur Symington said:

You presume wrong. Thanks for playing, champ.

Hopefully you don't have kids.

"Champ"

 

[Jacksgranda]

Where's Jack Ruby when you need him?

[Hedgecutter]

Was there not a Hibee a couple of days ago that posted up a screenshot of a £10k bet returning £57k whilst Trump was ahead, who has since been very quiet on here? Presumed that the image had been doctored, or copied from somewhere else, but you never know as it's standard fare when a poster is boasting.

 

[Jambomo]

5 minutes ago, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

I thought he was chairman mao? Or did he get binned and I missed it?

They are probably all the same person. I just imagine all the alias posters to be the one guy that is sat in his bedroom, logged in on about 20 devices, talking to themselves via their own aliases all day, everyday.

[Mark Connolly]

Just now, Jambomo said:

They are probably all the same person. I just imagine all the alias posters to be the one guy that is sat in his bedroom, logged in on about 20 devices, talking to themselves via their own aliases all day, everyday.

It's 19 devices actually.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

f**k

[GordonS]

28 minutes ago, Arthur Symington said:

You presume wrong. Thanks for playing, champ.

Hopefully you don't have kids.

You've obviously posted on here before. You've used an expression that's common on here but not out in the world of normals.

Why do you feel the need to hide who you are? Do you really feel you're in any position to hand out lessons in morality when you can't even stand behind your own words? How many accounts have you had on here, and what are they?

If you can't answer that then you should toddle off back to the shallow end where you belong.

[carpetmonster]

12 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

Decision desks are independent or at least semi independent of the network, including the Fox one. They have a set of criteria they use to call elections, they apply these to states for electoral college votes but also to senate and house races. They tend to wait till a count is above the recall level before they call the election. I understand they do take factors like where the outstanding votes are and how the trend in incoming votes is going. Fox called AZ (I know AP did and I cannot remember if its the same team). None of them will call PA until its beyond the recall percentage unless they are incredibly sure. There is some uncertainty with the make up of the Clarke County ballots in Nevada so there is some trepidation on that. Decision Desk HQ are data analysts and so far the only one to call PA. Who ever calls it first will get a big bump in viewing figures. 

 

Edited I doubt anyone cares but Twitter has told blue tick holders not to call the election until the major networks do. So you will see some dancing around it by well known political journalists, data scientists and political scientists. 

Fox and AP both use an algorithm based system to call, everyone else uses exit polls. Fox did call AZ before AP did tho. 
 

ETA - for clarity, Fox and AP both use the same system. 

Edited November 6, 2020 by carpetmonster

[GordonS]

8 minutes ago, Miguel Sanchez said:

Mao got binned a while back.

Did he?

Sorry, I meant "Diddy?"

[djchapsticks]

49 minutes ago, Arthur Symington said:

You may well be right but that description could pertain to people on here whom the majority would be delighted to be pals with, certainly if what is written off as laddish antics is anything to go by.

This and the fact that people are craving some Hollywoodesque aspect to this election, i.e. a person killing themselves in an outlandish fashion, is downright disturbing. Shows how much people are so far removed from reality.

Another thread on here discusses mental health and has posters expressing their disgust as to why more hasn't been done to improve it, but along with that frustration is a grave misunderstanding as to why in truth the situation is so bad. 

Not lack of funding or medical staff. It's THEIR fault.

This thread typifies it. Bullying, gloating and snide which is all too common in society from those who don't think for one second about their actions and no doubt behave the same way offline, therefore sustaining a toxic culture and making people's lives hell.

Good to see that the kids of apparently mentally stable parents can have role models to aspire to be like.

Arthur Symington? 

Mair like Buzz Killington, amirite lads?! 

[Hedgecutter]

amirite lads?! 

YOU'RE NOT WRONG!

(I forget what that's from)

[GordonS]

1 minute ago, carpetmonster said:

Fox and AP both use an algorithm based system to call, everyone else uses exit polls. Fox did call AZ before AP did tho. 

It was silly to use an algorithm in an election in which the order of counting would be unlike anything we'd seen before. You couldn't make meaningful projections about the ballots yet to be counted on the basis of those counted so far until you were way over 50% and you knew whether the mail-ins had been counted first, were integrated, or were yet to come. The Arizona call was a mistake, and for reasons that ought to have been obvious.

[Gaz]

Just now, Hedgecutter said:

YOU'RE NOT WRONG!

(I forget what that's from)

I can mind Zoe Ball using it on Live and Kicking

[Suspect Device]

25 minutes ago, Arthur Symington said:

You presume wrong. Thanks for playing, champ.

Hopefully you don't have kids.

 

I'm sure I'm not alone in reading those words and immediately thinking what an utter fucking fanny.