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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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Just now, Slacker said:

Looks to me like Biden is going to edge WIsconsin and Michigan, meaning he'll need only one of Pennsylvania (unlikely?)/Georgia (quite likely?). Is that fair to say?

I may be delirious now but I thought I heard that if he got Arizona he only needed two of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. 

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2 minutes ago, Slacker said:

Looks to me like Biden is going to edge WIsconsin and Michigan, meaning he'll need only one of Pennsylvania (unlikely?)/Georgia (quite likely?). Is that fair to say?

If he’s still holding NV then yeah, he only needs one of those two. 

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All three of the rust states will be going into the heavily Biden heavy postal votes, so all Pennsylvania looks like the least likely, but Michigan and WI are looking good.

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3 minutes ago, Comrie said:

All three of the rust states will be going into the heavily Biden heavy postal votes, so all Pennsylvania looks like the least likely, but Michigan and WI are looking good.

He might well end up sneaking this by the slimmest of margins.  And there’s no way Trump will stand for that.  Tears and snotters all over the place either way. 

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18 minutes ago, Gaz said:

So what states are likely to declare today?

Gilead.

Seriously, the result may be known in all but Pennsylvania and Michigan and media will call them, but states won't declare until they've crossed the i's and dotted the t's, which could be a day or so.

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16 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

Betfair a better guide, exchange has it just Trump 1.94, 2.02

 

 

A better guide to what exactly? Live political betting markets only exist so that the Anthony C Picks of this world can lose money based on their wild hot takes.

Edited by vikingTON
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7 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

Lads if you want to start prepping your “Bernie would’ve scooshed this” for deployment then now’s the time.

I dunno tbh.

I mean, I like Bernie and his politics, as do many Americans. But I can't shake the feeling that the same idiots who have learned f**k all from 2016 and are on the verge of one of the biggest minters in history would have absolutely ratfucked his campaign similar to Labour 2017-2019.

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1 minute ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

I dunno tbh.

I mean, I like Bernie and his politics, as do many Americans. But I can't shake the feeling that the same idiots who have learned f**k all from 2016 and are on the verge of one of the biggest minters in history would have absolutely ratfucked his campaign similar to Labour 2017-2019.

There have been various studies both here / in the USA that show if you show a voter a Sanders / Labour policy people will agree with it and think it is A Good Idea, but then as soon as you tell them that it's a Sanders / Labour policy it becomes A Very Bad Thing.

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Guest Bob Mahelp

Biden will win. The only question is if he takes Pennsylvania and Georgia in the process.

It would be handy if he did, it will effectively negate Trump's legal challenge. 

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2 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

Biden now moving to slight favourite in the exchanges. 1.73 vs Trumps 2.38

This is moving as fast as anything, given Trump was 1/3 earlier, so shows no-one has a scoob!

Think I'll stick to live betting next election, it's where the money is if you time it right.

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