ayrmad Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Back into 5/2. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: The House has to ratify a trade deal; they won’t if the GFI is jeopardised. True. I hope that they stand fast 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Too many people were losing sight of the possibility that there was a strong pro-Biden bias in large portions of the US media that was likely to blind people to the possibility that the polling numbers they were reporting were not being weighted properly to fully quantify shy Trump support. Fingers crossed it still works out OK for the Democrats in the end, but not surprised this has turned into a nailbiter. If you are being cynical being a big front runner conveniently justified Biden barely campaigning or doing media appearances. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RossBFaeDundee Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Well for what it's worth The Young Turks is quite funny right now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Those who put a lot of store by the bookies odds - does the fact that Biden has gone from 1/2 to 7/2 and back to 2/1 now not tell you something? Odds are not probabilities. I'd still bet on Biden from here but I'm not an idiot, I'm not risking money I don't have. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Much McConnell looks like a man that was an embryo stuck in a suit and put on a ballot paper. We are honestly 10 years from pro life campaigners trying to stop folk wanking to save the lives of sperm 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry94 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 A Trump win goes down as probably the biggest polling fail in political history. 2016 was one thing, but that would surely render a host of specky nerds redundant. Nonetheless I don't see much reason yet to completely lose hope in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, not to mention current signs that Arizona is leaning in Biden's favour.I still think Biden is the favourite. A lot has been made of the south but NC and Georgia were always the very upper end of the predictions on what he could take and Florida was tricky ground in the mid terms. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, harry94 said: I still think Biden is the favourite. A lot has been made of the south but NC and Georgia were always the very upper end of the predictions on what he could take and Florida was tricky ground in the mid terms. If you give the two parties all the states they're sure to win or have been called, then give Florida, Georgia and North Carolina to Trump, and Arizona to Biden, the 538 model gives Trump a 9% chance of winning, 85% for Biden and 6% chance of a tie. In that model it gives Trump an 87% chance of winning Ohio and 96% in Texas. But it gives Biden a 76% chance in Pennsylvania. I don't see a reason to disagree with that yet. If you give Arizona to Trump his chances go up to 46% to Biden's 54%. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 BBC are showing the potential for a 269 tie. If that happens the newly elected House vote it with each state delegation having one vote. The Vice President would be voted for by the Senate. There is then the possibilty for Trump-Harris Whitehouse. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Detournement said: BBC are showing the potential for a 269 tie. If that happens the newly elected House vote it with each state delegation having one vote. The Vice President would be voted for by the Senate. There is then the possibilty for Trump-Harris Whitehouse. A tie would be excellent 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralstonite Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Ach, I got three hours' sleep. Now I'm in this until morning. What've I missed? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFCDannyFTH Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Detournement said: BBC are showing the potential for a 269 tie. If that happens the newly elected House vote it with each state delegation having one vote. The Vice President would be voted for by the Senate. There is then the possibilty for Trump-Harris Whitehouse. That would be 2020 in a fucking nutshell. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Detournement said: BBC are showing the potential for a 269 tie. If that happens the newly elected House vote it with each state delegation having one vote. The Vice President would be voted for by the Senate. There is then the possibilty for Trump-Harris Whitehouse. They don't have to pick one of the VP candidates. It could be Trump-Biden. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ralstonite said: Ach, I got three hours' sleep. Now I'm in this until morning. What've I missed? An excellent tie And the likelihood of a tie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Ach, I got three hours' sleep. Now I'm in this until morning. What've I missed?Sleep by the sound of it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, GordonS said: If you give the two parties all the states they're sure to win or have been called, then give Florida, Georgia and North Carolina to Trump, and Arizona to Biden, the 538 model gives Trump a 9% chance of winning, 85% for Biden and 6% chance of a tie. In that model it gives Trump an 87% chance of winning Ohio and 96% in Texas. But it gives Biden a 76% chance in Pennsylvania. I don't see a reason to disagree with that yet. If you give Arizona to Trump his chances go up to 46% to Biden's 54%. That's just an opinion like the odds are, if I believed a 3.50 shot should be 1.18 I'd be robbing my granny for her cash to stick on. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, GordonS said: They don't have to pick one of the VP candidates. It could be Trump-Biden. That would just be cruel to Joe. Trump calling him Sleepy Joe every day and banning Hunter from the White House. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Arizona right now... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 33 minutes ago, ayrmad said: That's just an opinion like the odds are, if I believed a 3.50 shot should be 1.18 I'd be robbing my granny for her cash to stick on. I never gamble like that. I put a fiver on the Champions League final being very low scoring and I rolled the winnings of that into Ulster to beat Edinburgh in the Pro14 semi final, with a good new customer deal with SportsNation. That got me to £125, which I put on Biden. I put another £50 on tonight, but I won't gamble heavier than that. I'm a family guy and it's not just my money. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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