DeeTillEhDeh Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 We can never relax whilst there is the sizeable religious dimension to US voting patterns. I was interested to read Democratic feedback the other day that in the crucial states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, RC's represent 25 per cent of the electorate, and of that bloc it is estimated that 25 per cent will vote purely regarding abortion. In a tight vote that could prove crucial, even given Biden's background.I thought RCs traditionally voted Democrat because the Republicans were seen as the home of the WASPs? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
O'Kelly Isley III Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 I thought RCs traditionally voted Democrat because the Republicans were seen as the home of the WASPs? Indeed they did and many still do, but what we are talking about here is a growing middle class which can be extremely socially conservative and who prioritise church ideology over the poverty and injustice their forebears experienced (my words). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, O'Kelly Isley III said: We can never relax whilst there is the sizeable religious dimension to US voting patterns. I was interested to read Democratic feedback the other day that in the crucial states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, RC's represent 25 per cent of the electorate, and of that bloc it is estimated that 25 per cent will vote purely regarding abortion. In a tight vote that could prove crucial, even given Biden's background. If read a couple of sources claiming Evangelical Christians comprise 25% of the electorate. Far higher than I thought but obviously includes the less showy lot. Still a huge and influential demographic. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Bet if Biden wins the GOP will revert straight back to fiscal conservatism and blame Trump's gobsmacking $3 trillion current account deficit on Biden while trying to block any reversal of Trump's tax giveaway to the wealthy. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 On 29/10/2020 at 09:22, harry94 said: Definitely, if one of the candidates wins by a narrow victory, there's potential for something like that to cause an absolute shitfest and cause a constitutional crisis that would very likely see the election flipped. There were 10 in 2016 and cases still going through the court system at the current moment, there's obviously not that kind of time and a $1k fine isn't going to be a huge deterrent in itself. I think in 2016 those Faithless Electors voted in the knowledge that it wouldn't make any difference. That is different to the pressure of voting when it could decide the election. It is technically possible, but I suspect that if it happened the culprits might not survive to see the inauguration. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, MixuFruit said: presumably they're concentrated in the bible belt though? They walk amongst us.. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Florentine_Pogen Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, dorlomin said: More people have now voted in Texas than voted in 2016. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322160084651266048 Hard to guess which way break, there is no point trying to divine the final result from the early votes. Its too unprecedented, though that has not stopped dozens of bad hot takes from journalists with little else to work on. Incidentally while I am here, Texas state house might flip, that Pennsylvania and a couple of others are up for grabs. 2020 is a census year, that means redistricting (I think I mentioned this over the summer). States covering something like 30% of Congressional seats have their state legislatures up for re-election this year. It was the (not at all racist) wave of anti Obama votes in 2010 that allowed the Republicans to get such a big lead in gerrymandering. A big downballot anti Trump vote would unwind much of that. If anyone is looking for someone to follow for polling information Dave Wasserman, Nate Cohn and Nate Silver are all worth a look. FWIW polling from here on in might be a bit dodgy, apparently there is a theory that big pollsters "herd" their last polls so they are not caught with a big outlier in case there is a big polling miss (that is they might have an adjustment to push them to the polling average). Though there is a bit of an argument they have stopped doing this and this year the polling is almost weird in how stable it has been. The electorate is very polarised and has made its mind up long time ago. Even Covid has barely shifted Trumps approval, his base is rock solid, just a matter if enough anti Trump voters actually turn up. Someone sure as hell is in Texas. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/30/is-america-a-democracy-us-election-fight-to-vote "Last month, Texas’s governor, Greg Abbott, a Republican, abruptly issued an order that limited each county in the state to offer one ballot drop box. The move meant that Democratic-friendly Harris county, which stretches more than 2,000 miles and is home to 2.4 million registered voters, could only offer one place for voters to return their ballots. The state of Rhode Island, which is smaller than Harris county, will have more drop-off locations this year." Mrs. FP was speaking to one of her Trump voting, slightly redneckish siblings last night. He's pretty confident that everything will change bigly on Tuesday when the Trump base come out in their droves. Ohio, by the way. Edited October 30, 2020 by Florentine_Pogen 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 5 hours ago, Kejan said: Can anyone see a Trump win? I think Biden will win, but I think it'll be a lot closer than some are thinking. Trump to win Iowa, Florida, Ohio. North Carolina, Georgia and Texas - probably tighter than usual, but think that Trump will win these three although the Dems will take some House seats. Biden should win the rust belt, but I think some will be super close e.g Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Trump needs a bit of a miracle again to win the presidency as in the 3 rust belt states he won in 16, he won by baw hair's. It's not likely but of course it's possible. He's only a pretty normal polling error off in Pennsylvania. He needs to win everywhere that he's currently polling behind by about 5.5 points, which is entirely possible. But he needs to win all of them. Unless Trump takes a hammering in Pennsylvania he'll very likely finish the night ahead, with postal votes being counted for a while longer. If they can get the Supreme Court to stop the count, then Trump wins. There's no way that a truckload of the highest paid lawyers in the world haven't thoroughly gamed out how to do just that. If Florida comes in for Biden none of that will matter though. Anything between a narrow Trump win and a historic Biden landslide is still on the table. If the result ends up at one of those extremes it will be a defining moment for the US. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 It's not likely but of course it's possible. He's only a pretty normal polling error off in Pennsylvania. He needs to win everywhere that he's currently polling behind by about 5.5 points, which is entirely possible. But he needs to win all of them. Unless Trump takes a hammering in Pennsylvania he'll very likely finish the night ahead, with postal votes being counted for a while longer. If they can get the Supreme Court to stop the count, then Trump wins. There's no way that a truckload of the highest paid lawyers in the world haven't thoroughly gamed out how to do just that. If Florida comes in for Biden none of that will matter though. Anything between a narrow Trump win and a historic Biden landslide is still on the table. If the result ends up at one of those extremes it will be a defining moment for the US.If really needs to be a landslide or ckear win to put the manchild and his lunatic supporters back in their box. Any narrow win for Biden will be an absolute nightmare - worse than the whole hanging Chad's affair. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Florentine_Pogen said: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/30/is-america-a-democracy-us-election-fight-to-vote "Last month, Texas’s governor, Greg Abbott, a Republican, abruptly issued an order that limited each county in the state to offer one ballot drop box. The move meant that Democratic-friendly Harris county, which stretches more than 2,000 miles and is home to 2.4 million registered voters, could only offer one place for voters to return their ballots. The state of Rhode Island, which is smaller than Harris county, will have more drop-off locations this year." Mrs. FP was speaking to one of her Trump voting, slightly redneckish siblings last night. He's pretty confident that everything will change bigly on Tuesday when the Trump base come out in their droves. Ohio, by the way. Might not be working so well in Harris County.. https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/election-2020/2020/10/29/385142/harris-county-surpasses-2016-voting-numbers-setting-new-turnout-record/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 May already have been posted, but if not, found this quite useful 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 13 hours ago, welshbairn said: Might not be working so well in Harris County.. https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/election-2020/2020/10/29/385142/harris-county-surpasses-2016-voting-numbers-setting-new-turnout-record/ Needless to say, this is just terrible for Trump if his strategy is to discount late balloting through the courts. Early voting is much more likely to be for Biden. If the vote rate is up like this across the country, it could be a blow out. If Texas is remotely in play for the Democrats (as opposed to in 2028/32 when AOC runs and will take the state) now, Trump’s in serious bother. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike rankine Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Is that column that says 2020 early vote as % of total 2016 saying that in Texas the 2020 early vote is 95% of ALL the votes in Texas in 2016?That's my reading of it. An analyst on Radio Scotland just now said more people have currently voted in Texas 2020 than the total for 2016. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 (edited) On 29/10/2020 at 11:55, EdinburghPar1975 said: Is there a few states where they are counting the ballots as they're received? Though Florida was one of them? Sure i heard that due to so many early voting and some states counting they'll have a very good idea on the night as to whether there would be any challenges or contentious counts Texas and Florida should release their early vote tally on close of polls. They machine tabulate them and its switch of a button. It could give someone an aneurism. On Texas specifically, it has under gone a huge economic boom that has brought in a lot of younger workers to the state. This, rather than Hispanics, has been the cause of its big shift. Hispanics are very diverse as a group but broadly those in southern states tend to be more conservative and vote Republican those in western states (Arizona, New Mexico, California) tend to be more Democrat and some say more liberal. In Florida is a whole mess of complexity, but a lot of older Cubans tend to be very hostile to anything faintly leftish (not unusual with people who got out of communist dictatorships, you can see a similar pattern in eastern Europe) but the younger decedents of Cubans are now drifting towards the Democrats. The whole state is a mad mix of demographics and cultures that weirdly tend to drop it as a swing state in most elections. The big hope for the Democrats here is older white voters being turned off Trump and onto the Bidens soft speaking new england tone. There are a load of older midwesterners down there in addition from the rest of the country. Biden has being trying to sound like a senator from the 80s, polite and open to bipartisanship. But its Florida. Its almost another planet. Arizona is another key swing state that will come out very early. He has a giant John McCain shaped hole in his popularity in a state with a large air force presence. Its usually a pretty Republican state but there has been a lot of unhappiness at him over his long term feud with McCain and relatively big name Republicans have been calling to vote Biden at the top and Republican downballot. So in early results we would (generally) expect the sunbelt states (south and west) to lean much heavier Democrat than they will on the full count due to Democrats being far more motivated to vote early, but the midwest battle ground states have a much more Republican tinge due to small rural counties getting their in person votes counted first and the postal\drop of votes that will lean Democrat only starting later. Its going to be a shitstorm. Wall to wall meltdowns from Democrat and Republicans across twitter in full 3D technicolour. Edited October 31, 2020 by dorlomin new england 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted October 31, 2020 Author Share Posted October 31, 2020 I saw a couple of snippets on social media.Significantly higher early voting has been seen among 18-29year olds, 2.5 times the levels in 2016. That will probably be good for Biden, who has leads among the youth vote. One method of tracking voting in Florida is the early voting turnout among registered voters. In 2016 the Dems lead this by 33,000. In 2020they lead by 116,000. Trump won Florida by 113,000votes in 2016. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 15 hours ago, Savage Henry said: Needless to say, this is just terrible for Trump if his strategy is to discount late balloting through the courts. Early voting is much more likely to be for Biden. If the vote rate is up like this across the country, it could be a blow out. If Texas is remotely in play for the Democrats (as opposed to in 2028/32 when AOC runs and will take the state) now, Trump’s in serious bother. They've already trying to discount votes in Harris County (mentioned above). https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/texas-drive-through-voting-throw-out-ballots.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 17 hours ago, MixuFruit said: Is that column that says 2020 early vote as % of total 2016 saying that in Texas the 2020 early vote is 95% of ALL the votes in Texas in 2016? Yeah, as Mike says, far more people have already voted in Texas than voted in the 2016 election there altogether. 1.5 million in Harris County alone. There's absolutely no way of looking at the data that isn't truly terrible for Trump. His only hope is that it's all systemically wrong, and that everyone who voted for him in 2016 comes out in person on Tuesday, plus a few more. It's still plausible, though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Florentine_Pogen Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 This is one reason not to discount Orange Hitler until all the votes are in. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/31/sheldson-adelson-trump-republicans-election 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 9 hours ago, welshbairn said: They've already trying to discount votes in Harris County (mentioned above). https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/texas-drive-through-voting-throw-out-ballots.html It seems pointless taking it to court, that guy says they're not going to win (about half a dozen times).... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 On 28/10/2020 at 11:18, Day of the Lords said: On 28/10/2020 at 09:43, Granny Danger said: What sort of sad, pathetic nut job joins a forum purely to post pro-Trump shite? It’s a sad indictment of the downside of social media. I'm guessing it's Swampy again. We have another one. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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