welshbairn Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said: Is that some sort of native rodent? I believe it's Yankee for arse nuggets, like hanging chads. Edited October 29, 2020 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 26 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said: Is that some sort of native rodent? It makes up 80% of Trump’s base. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 3 hours ago, EdinburghPar1975 said: Didn't think Trump would be in with a realistic chance till i spoke with my boss yesterday. An intelligent, hard working and really nice guy who told me he'd voted for Trump as he can't see how Biden can help the economy and deal with China. To hear someone like him say he's voting for Trump even though he doesn't like him and hates what he's done to the country in terms of diversity shows just how torn some 'sensible' people must be. Still think Biden will win and if it is comfortable then i can't see much challenge in terms of not accepting the result. The GOP has enough damage repair to try and get on with for 2024 if they get beaten without actually challenging the actual democratic process more than they already have done Nice and good are two different things. I've no doubt your boss is polite and friendly and a good boss to you. But he clearly doesn't actually give a shit about black or poor people. Half the folk in my town are very nice and friendly, but if they could they'd still sell you into slavery for the money for a new car. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 hour ago, oneteaminglasgow said: Is there any possibility of Trump could nominally “win” the electoral college, but have it swung by a couple of faithless voters going Biden instead? Think that, if possible, would be the funniest outcome. I think that would not unreasonably be called a coup d'etat. There were a lot of faithless electors last time, but they knew there was enough of a margin for it to be safe. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BawWatchin Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 17 minutes ago, GordonS said: Half the folk in my town are very nice and friendly, but if they could they'd still sell you into slavery for the money for a new car. Agreed. Although in my town, the other half are wanks who would then proceed to try and steal the car in order to pay the fee for their new slaves. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Is everyone staying up for it? I've stayed up for every US election since about 92, but I'm thinking it probably won't be worth it this time. Pennsylvania (and others) won't even start processing mail-ins until election day and have said it could take them until Friday to count. Unless the polls are wrong and Biden wins by a huge margin, by the end of the night Trump will very likely be ahead there. Trump finishing the night ahead and finishing the count behind is the kind of thing that will get the armed bams out, of course. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdinburghPar1975 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 23 minutes ago, GordonS said: Nice and good are two different things. I've no doubt your boss is polite and friendly and a good boss to you. But he clearly doesn't actually give a shit about black or poor people. He really does and was torn about voting for Trump - i'm still amazed by it to be honest but he just feels that Biden is a less capable option in his eyes and will actually cause more long term damage to the US internationally and economically that will take them a huge time to recover from. It's a bit of a blanket statement to say folks that vote for Trump don't care about either of those things...i'm sure a lot do, just not enough... He's lived in the UK for 20+ years so i'm not sure how much that alters how he see's/ believes whats going on domestically and how that influences things. From what he said a large amont of corporate folks will back Trump as for a large part of the US, economy is the main thing... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry94 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, GordonS said: Is everyone staying up for it? I've stayed up for every US election since about 92, but I'm thinking it probably won't be worth it this time. Pennsylvania (and others) won't even start processing mail-ins until election day and have said it could take them until Friday to count. Unless the polls are wrong and Biden wins by a huge margin, by the end of the night Trump will very likely be ahead there. Trump finishing the night ahead and finishing the count behind is the kind of thing that will get the armed bams out, of course. Florida could be decided very early, they are only four hours behind us, it could be a case of them getting it sorted by midnight here if there's a couple of percent in that. If Biden wins that, it's widely seen as practically impossible for Trump to get the votes he needs. If that's up in the air (they range between calling it very quickly or shitfesting) or leaning towards Trump, it might well be very interesting viewing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, harry94 said: Florida could be decided very early, they are only four hours behind us, it could be a case of them getting it sorted by midnight here if there's a couple of percent in that. If Biden wins that, it's widely seen as practically impossible for Trump to get the votes he needs. If that's up in the air (they range between calling it very quickly or shitfesting) or leaning towards Trump, it might well be very interesting viewing. Agree re Florida and I’ll be staying up to watch; taking Wednesday off work. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 30 minutes ago, EdinburghPar1975 said: He really does and was torn about voting for Trump - i'm still amazed by it to be honest but he just feels that Biden is a less capable option in his eyes and will actually cause more long term damage to the US internationally and economically that will take them a huge time to recover from. It's a bit of a blanket statement to say folks that vote for Trump don't care about either of those things...i'm sure a lot do, just not enough... He's lived in the UK for 20+ years so i'm not sure how much that alters how he see's/ believes whats going on domestically and how that influences things. From what he said a large amont of corporate folks will back Trump as for a large part of the US, economy is the main thing... His tax giveaways to the wealthy is what swings it, no matter the long term damage to the economy with spiralling debt. Thus the Dow index etc falling as Trump getting booted out seems more likely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Agree re Florida and I’ll be staying up to watch; taking Wednesday off work. Really pissed off I've got an important meeting on Wednesday morning I couldn't get out of, I love election nights. They'll just have to accept a hungover zombie I'm afraid. If the South Carolina Senate race looks tight after the exit polls I'm not sleeping in case I miss Lindsey Graham's tantrum. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Im just going to refresh twitter every 10 secs if the exit polls look terrible for trump for the rant. But im the same early start that week as im working for the middle east team that week but with the time difference it hopefully should work out nicely 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdinburghPar1975 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 i'll be working from home but will have the US news channels on the telly...might actually get some work done depending on what's happening.... Is there a few states where they are counting the ballots as they're received? Though Florida was one of them? Sure i heard that due to so many early voting and some states counting they'll have a very good idea on the night as to whether there would be any challenges or contentious counts 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMMjag Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Betfair has a few good pieces about the election and Biden's path to victory. https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-odds-and-bet-of-the-day-biden-still-good-value-for-handicap-targets-241020-171.html Quote Earlier this week, I put up Michigan and Wisconsin as Biden bankers. They provide 26 ECVs. Pennsylvania (20) is not far behind and I'll add Nebraska's second district (1). Win that quartet and our handicap requires another 41. The next batch of Biden targets are Florida (29), Arizona (11), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16). I've listed them in order of Fivethirtyeight rankings, but there isn't much to choose between them in polls. The results will likely correlate. In this path, Florida plus one could get to 320. If losing Florida, winning the other three will do it. We could also throw Iowa (6) and Maine-CD2 (1) into calculations. Biden's lowest estimate for any of these targets is 50%. In short, we have multiple paths to 320 and the chances are, if he performs to polling expectations, he'll take the lot and pass the handicap mark with ease. Given Texas is also in play which would have him looking at over 390, 320+ has been my bet of choice. Even if odds have shortened slightly it still looks decent value. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 2 hours ago, GordonS said: Is everyone staying up for it? I've stayed up for every US election since about 92, but I'm thinking it probably won't be worth it this time. Pennsylvania (and others) won't even start processing mail-ins until election day and have said it could take them until Friday to count. Unless the polls are wrong and Biden wins by a huge margin, by the end of the night Trump will very likely be ahead there. Trump finishing the night ahead and finishing the count behind is the kind of thing that will get the armed bams out, of course. I seldom stay up for UK elections never mind US ones, so the answer's "no". 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Hm. If Biden wins Florida it's game over, Trump would need Pennsylvania and Michigan plus one other, and that's never going to happen on a night he can't keep Florida. So I could watch that and relax. But if Trump wins it I'll probably start hate-watching and be up the whole night, and still not know who won. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Electoral map prediction. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kejan Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Can anyone see a Trump win? I think Biden will win, but I think it'll be a lot closer than some are thinking. Trump to win Iowa, Florida, Ohio. North Carolina, Georgia and Texas - probably tighter than usual, but think that Trump will win these three although the Dems will take some House seats. Biden should win the rust belt, but I think some will be super close e.g Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Trump needs a bit of a miracle again to win the presidency as in the 3 rust belt states he won in 16, he won by baw hair's. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 More people have now voted in Texas than voted in 2016. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322160084651266048 Hard to guess which way break, there is no point trying to divine the final result from the early votes. Its too unprecedented, though that has not stopped dozens of bad hot takes from journalists with little else to work on. Incidentally while I am here, Texas state house might flip, that Pennsylvania and a couple of others are up for grabs. 2020 is a census year, that means redistricting (I think I mentioned this over the summer). States covering something like 30% of Congressional seats have their state legislatures up for re-election this year. It was the (not at all racist) wave of anti Obama votes in 2010 that allowed the Republicans to get such a big lead in gerrymandering. A big downballot anti Trump vote would unwind much of that. If anyone is looking for someone to follow for polling information Dave Wasserman, Nate Cohn and Nate Silver are all worth a look. FWIW polling from here on in might be a bit dodgy, apparently there is a theory that big pollsters "herd" their last polls so they are not caught with a big outlier in case there is a big polling miss (that is they might have an adjustment to push them to the polling average). Though there is a bit of an argument they have stopped doing this and this year the polling is almost weird in how stable it has been. The electorate is very polarised and has made its mind up long time ago. Even Covid has barely shifted Trumps approval, his base is rock solid, just a matter if enough anti Trump voters actually turn up. Someone sure as hell is in Texas. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
O'Kelly Isley III Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 We can never relax whilst there is the sizeable religious dimension to US voting patterns. I was interested to read Democratic feedback the other day that in the crucial states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, RC's represent 25 per cent of the electorate, and of that bloc it is estimated that 25 per cent will vote purely regarding abortion. In a tight vote that could prove crucial, even given Biden's background. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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