The US Presidential election prediction thread

[ICTChris 11,770]

Thought I'd start a thread specifically for predictions for the US election, they are always good fun to predict.  

What are everyone's thoughts on the following

Popular vote split - 

Electoral College split - 

Specific states - 

Wild card - 

I predict Biden wins the popular vote 49% to 46% and the Electoral college 300-238.  I'll look at the specific states when I've got time.

My wild card prediction is a bit longer term but the losing candidate will die before the 2024 elections.

 

[welshbairn 19,066]

The popular vote split in 2016 was 48.2 - 46.1 in favour of Clinton, I think it will be a lot more this time. I think people are getting less excited by his Great Disrupter spiel, and the wrinklies are getting worried about their healthcare and don't like seeing one of their own, old man Biden, getting bullied. Not putting a figure on it yet.

[J_Stewart 5,507]

I don't think it's particularly "wild card" to predict that both candidates will have died before the 2024 elections, tbh. They're both pretty old, neither are in peak physical condition (Trump especially) and their brains have degraded to varying degrees of mush.

Biden will win, Trump will tantrum, and after a few clashes in the first week, the MAGA boys will get bored and everything will proceed as normal to the inauguration. Biden won't see Year 3 in his Presidency.  

[WhiteRoseKillie 5,278]

18 minutes ago, J_Stewart said:

I don't think it's particularly "wild card" to predict that both candidates will have died before the 2024 elections, tbh. They're both pretty old, neither are in peak physical condition (Trump especially) and their brains have degraded to varying degrees of mush.

Biden will win, Trump will tantrum, and after a few clashes in the first week, the MAGA boys will get bored and everything will proceed as normal to the inauguration. Biden won't see Year 3 in his Presidency.  

I would like to see Tangoman's* reaction of bitter jubilation when "sleepy Joe" throws a seven, followed by his last, final bout of apoplexy as he realises Harris is now sitting in "his" chair in the Oval Office.**

*And his cretionous "MAGA" fanboys and girls. The double-take to end them all.

** Joe better shuffle off quickly, mind - I don't reckon Trump has got long, no matter what the result.

Edited October 26, 2020 by WhiteRoseKillie

[EdinburghPar1975 124]

Popular vote split -  Biden 53% Trump 43%

Electoral College split - Biden, but it'll be a bit closer than the polls have it just now

Specific states - Trump will lose one of the biggies for the GOP like Texas or Florida

Wild card - Horrible thing to predict but i can't help but feel that if Trump loses he'll go into full meltdown and his fanatic followers will se it as a signal  to make an attempt to take out Biden. Biden won't run for a second term if he gets to 2024 if he goes full term

Edited October 26, 2020 by EdinburghPar1975
typo

[Academically Deficient 704]

Biden wins, but not by as much as the polls suggest.

Trouble on the streets of several cities.

Trump has to save face by claiming it was fixed by the establishment/media/some shitty conspiracy. And some Americans, being Americans, get violent as a result.

Harris to be President within 3 years. A lot of God fearing, gun totin good old boys won't be happy with that either.

[NotThePars 8,738]

Trump doesn’t concede on the night but the extent of his resisting the result will be a couple of days sitting in the bunker ala Brown in 2010. The maximum amount of conflict beyond a few lone MAGA nut jobs is a general having to go in and lead the big wet president out of the Oval Office.

Biden sees the full 4 years as a figurehead while the Dems do f**k all to cement their position for 2024.

My chaos prediction is that the lack of prep and some sort of hobbling of Kamala leads to Biden running by default in 2024

[Melanius Mullarkey 23,361]

Trump loses and on the night, unzips a fat suit to reveal that he's been Jim Duffy all along.

[Granny Danger 16,210]

Biden will win, good chance the Senate will be at least 50/50 too.

Not too bothered about anything else but hope Florida goes to Biden as it will be called early on due to their way of dealing with postal ballots.  An early Florida call for Biden would minimise shenanigans.

 

[carpetmonster 1,388]

Trump loses popular vote by huge margin - something like 55-42 and also loses Electoral College. Attempts to have postal votes discounted however swing states with Democrat Secretaries of State (PA, WI, NC) refuse. 
 

Trump cannot be beholden to any sort of failure and increasingly lashes out at his own side, which will depressingly give some of the GOP an out. Fox News will replay lots of footage from the 2016 primaries where they were pro-Cruz prior to Trump getting the nomination. 
 

The 500 or so Trump nutjobs who are genuinely unhinged and have trousers alongside mouth will make some sort of terrorist attack in Portland. 
 

Trump’s last media appearance will happen before the end of November and he won’t be seen after that. He will refuse to give Biden the welcome tour of the Oval Office, however will not say so publicly, it will only be relayed by the press. 
 

Biden will complete 4 year term but won’t run for re-election. Marco Rubio will be GOP candidate in 2024. 

Edited October 26, 2020 by carpetmonster

[Pato 12,695]

Popular vote split - 54-46 to Biden

Electoral College split - 274-264 to Biden

Specific states - cba to do them all. I think Texas will come close but still stay red.

Wild card - McConnell finally succumbs to that zombie bite after concealing it all this time and kills the entire government.

Edited October 26, 2020 by MixuFruit

[ICTChris 11,770]

Riots will be much more likely if Trump wins than if Biden wins.  

[harry94 1,571]

Popular vote - 53%-46%

EC/States - I'll go a bit out there and say that Biden does very well, 351-187 which a lot of pollsters project. He may even take Ohio or Texas to eliminate any doubt. Some prominent Republicans who are considered to be within safe territory lose or need costy recounts/legal challenges that last weeks.

Wild Card - Trump will congratulate Biden on his victory. He might even go as inviting him to the White House. The media will start to reappraise him and very briefly present him as some patriotic maverick who was just in a little bit over his head and even speak fondly of him. Not too different to after his victory when he met Obama and everything seemed calm for a few days.

This calm will last a week before he starts shitfesting his way into the news every single day and rambling about the 'deep state'. Some Republicans will turn on him and the party will go to civil war. In this time, he'll announce his campaign for 2024 and begin taking donations. He'll create the new 'MAGA Party' and recruit some of his more outspoken supporters and announce their intent to begin competing in all elections against Republicans.

 

[welshbairn 19,066]

Gone for Biden 390-419 Electoral College votes at 7/1 with Skybet. The pollsters are all wary of predicting a landslide after 2016, 538 call it herding when pollsters are scared to go for what looks like a dramatic outlier and massage their results to keep it inline with the rest. That's what I'm betting on anyway.

[Kejan 750]

Popular vote split - Biden 51% Trump 43%

Electoral College split - 295 Biden - 243 Trump

Specific states - Trump to win Florida, Ohio and Iowa whilst Biden wins Pennsylvania ; Minnesota ; Wisconsin and Michigan. 

Wild card - North Carolina goes to Biden. Not sure if that's a wild card. Trump holds on to Arizona with a 1-2% margin of victory. Texas is closer than usual, but he still wins it outright, like wise with Georgia. Trump huffs for a bit and then starts up Trump Broadcasting or something to challenge Fox or a podcast and a world tour like Jordan Peterson did. Biden lasts the four years, but retires in 2023 and Harris will be the nominee for president in the 2024 election.

[welshbairn 19,066]

Wild card: Trump withdraws from the race on November 2nd. Absolute soap opera box office, he'll love it, especially if he thinks he's fucked. Shoots off to Mar-e-Lago and laughs at the chaos. I don't think anyone's sure what would happen.

[Michael W 2,988]

Popular vote: 52% Biden, 43% Trump

Electoral college: Biden above 320. 

Specific states: North Carolina, Wisconsin Ohio, Florida, Michigan & Pensylvania all go blue. A terrible night for Trump narrowly prevented from becoming an outright disaster as Georgia stays red by 0.75% margin. 

Wildcard: Trump's Twitter account deleted in the resulting meltdown. Joe Biden diagnosed with dementia during his tenure and is replaced by Kamala Harris before his 4 years are up. Having secured a Conservative majority on the Supreme Court for years to have, Trump moves onto the court for being part of a WITCH HUNT and 'Republicans in Name Only' when his tax returns finally make it into a court. Trump cheerleader Lindsay Graham also loses his senate seat. 

[John Lambies Doos 4,363]

Biden by a neck

[Highland Capital 1,787]

I've been predicting for a while that Biden will win and at some point early on in his presidency there's an agreement between himself and the party that he'll complete one term and then not run again with the agreement from the party that Harris will be the candidate in 2024.

Wild card - Trump loses the election but wins most of the southern and some of the middle America states (Nebraska for example).  Trump will then claim that as he won those states he's their rightful president and tells those states to declare independence from the USA and then unite to form a new country with him as president.

Edited October 26, 2020 by Highland Capital

[GordonS 5,478]

Popular vote split - Biden 50 v 45 Trump

Electoral College split - Biden 278 v 260 Trump. I'm assuming the race will narrow for no other reason than it usually does, that the polls still have a slight Dem bias and I fear  disappointment.

Specific states - Biden retakes the Midwest - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump takes all the other swing states - Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Nebraska 2, Maine 2, Iowa.

Wild card - That there won't be any craziness after all. Trump can't win without at least one of Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin, and Biden will win all three by margins too big to realistically challenge.