Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Terry_Tibbs

Scotland's 15.1 Billion Defecit

Recommended Posts

The likes of Terry and his multiple aliases over the years are going to get to see 1st hand how it will be dealt with in the not too distant future by the looks of it. Will they hang around to find out or hop over the border to their depleted but beloved UK which by then with be descending into a Xenephobic, racist, isolated outcrop ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Terry_Tibbs said:

There is no plan for one. If Scotland becomes independent in the next 5 years there will be no independent currency in place upon becoming independent.

Do you think the SNP would remain in power for eternity and no one else would come in with different ideas that could be put across?

Wouldn't a sensible approach be Sterlingisation initially, while floating an independent currency and move gradually from one to the other to manage issues with change, rather than an immediate overnight change from one to the other, which you seem to suggest is the alternative to the current set up?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Ross. said:

Even at that, given a significant portion of the debit is pretty much owed to ourselves, the interest that is paid down is partially paid back to us.

Would the SNP remain in power forever?

Once they start borrowing in a foreign currency during Sterlingisation it's a difficult hole to get out for any future governments. 

You also have to consider that if Sterlingisation is implemented it then becomes the primary political dividing line and a rallying point for unionists and right wingers who would get huge financial backing.  It might be as difficult to ditch Sterling in iScotland as it is to ditch the union just now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ross. said:

Do you think the SNP would remain in power for eternity and no one else would come in with different ideas that could be put across?

Wouldn't a sensible approach be Sterlingisation initially, while floating an independent currency and move gradually from one to the other to manage issues with change, rather than an immediate overnight change from one to the other, which you seem to suggest is the alternative to the current set up?

The SNP would certainly be the first government in a newly independent Scotland and the decision on the currency has been taken.  It would take economists at least 5 years to come up with an independent currency.

Sterlingisation means no fiscal wriggle room and therefore viscous austerity will be required to balance the budget.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Detournement said:

Once they start borrowing in a foreign currency during Sterlingisation it's a difficult hole to get out for any future governments. 

You also have to consider that if Sterlingisation is implemented it then becomes the primary political dividing line and a rallying point for unionists and right wingers who would get huge financial backing.  It might be as difficult to ditch Sterling in iScotland as it is to ditch the union just now. 

It would be in rUK's best interests to have Sterling used for as long as possible. The balance of payments will be ever more important post Brexit, particularly with the Covid deficit to be added to the figures. I think irrespective of anything, a gradual move to a newly floated currency would be the way it goes, and both sides would work together to ensure it went as smoothly as possible. There is too much to lose on both sides for posturing and game playing to take place at anything other than a superficial level.

1 minute ago, Terry_Tibbs said:

The SNP would certainly be the first government in a newly independent Scotland and the decision on the currency has been taken.  It would take economists at least 5 years to come up with an independent currency.

Sterlingisation means no fiscal wriggle room and therefore viscous austerity will be required to balance the budget.

Why would the SNP "Certainly be the first government"? Wouldn't there be an election post independence vote?

Who made the decision on currency and what statute books has it been written into?

Is 5 years too long or too short?

Why would austerity be thick?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ross. said:

It's actually an out of context quote from some SLAB mouthpiece from the run up to the last referendum. Can't remember if it was Jackie Baillie or Johan Lamont.

It was either Johann Lamont or Wee Gordon Strachan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Terry_Tibbs said:

The part wasn't aimed at you granda. You didn't downvote the question as far as i know.

I'll sneak back in three weeks and red dot it...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Ross. said:

Why wouldn't Scotland have a currency of it's own?

Reasons...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Perhaps the SG  should cull public services via proper 'Greek-style' austerity ensuring Scotland runs in the biggest surplus in the world.    The adults in the room understand that other measures like GDP per capita are better measures of the countries wealth.   

Terry I'm sure will be happy to explain why the Independent bit of the island to west of GB is vastly outperforming the bit enslaved to the UK?  

Edited by Beth Paige-Black

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone invoking...as Malky is trying to do here... the tired Unionist trope that 'independence = uncertainty and Union = certainty' is a childish fool that isn't worth listening to.

If the last 6 years have done anything, they've blown the Yoon lie out of the water that a No vote is a vote for 'the status quo'. There's no such thing.

Despite their promises before the last referendum, the No side have given us...continued austerity, diminished devolved powers, the most right-wing government in British history, incompetent Tory PM after incompetent Tory PM, Brexit, social division and a democratic deficit where Scotland's voters are ignored. 

Due to Brexit, the No vote will deliver, in the years to come, economic hardship for millions, a growing gap between the haves and have nots, astonishing job losses, more social division, and price increases well above wage increases. 

That's what a No vote brought us in 2014. Remember their lies well, because they'll try to use them again in the 2nd referendum .

The questions is not, and never will be, 'can Scotland afford to be independent'. It will always be 'can Scotland afford NOT to be independent' ?

Time to get out of this rancid UK, before we're bankrupted completely by Westminster. 

Edited by Bob Mahelp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
How would an independent Scotland bridge the gap without austerity?
By deficit i refer to gap between what we'd be receiving in tax and what we're currently spending. Not the overall debt.
Same way as UK deals with a figure much higher than that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, welshbairn said:

^^^Thick

Vicious austerity is part of the GC. 

Whatever level of austerity we have at independence the SNP intend to inflict more. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Detournement said:

Vicious austerity is part of the GC. 

Whatever level of austerity we have at independence the SNP intend to inflict more. 

I don't recall the SNP saying they intend to inflict more austerity. Can you share the link?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Would the SNP remain in power forever?
The SNP would cease to exist in the event of an Independent Scotland. Their work would be done.

Whether they would come back as a rebranded 'Scottish Labour Democratic Socialist Liberal Party'* remains to be seen but that's what my money would be on.

*Obviously that's a silly name, but that's something like what they'd be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I’d really like a sensible discussion about the GERS figures with people who know what they’re talking about. I’m well aware of many of their limitations, e.g. applying a population share of defence spending to Scotland (~£4bn) that a) doesn’t take into account how much it benefits Scotland or b) whether a hypothetical indy Scotland would even touch such sums. Similar arguments for foreign office spending, foreign aid, etc. And I’m also aware Scotland is assigned a share of certain projects that really do have little to do with Scotland, e.g. I noticed HS2 in the raw data published alongside the report, with a pro-rata share deducted and included in the reported deficit. However a similar infrastructure project in Scotland such as the Queensferry Crossing or the Rail Electrification Project would come out of the Scottish Parliament budget and not show in rUK figures proving an inequity. There are more than 4000 lines in the raw data but most are pretty vague so hard to pin down what they relate to specifically.

Nonetheless the report does show a deficit - as do similar figures for everywhere in the UK except London, the South East and I think the East of England. Is this a mere accounting anomaly, with company headquarters in London therefore seeing London ‘assigned’ things like corporation tax income? Or is that built in to the workings? I’ve read the report and it doesn’t really mention anything about that.

£15bn is a lot to make up and I’d like some actual answers, rather than politicised guesswork. Probably the wrong place, if it’s even possible to answer given the purpose of the exercise isn’t to show what an independent Scotland’s finances would look like.
It's an accounting exercise that bears no relation to reality.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Billy Jean King said:

The likes of Terry and his multiple aliases over the years are going to get to see 1st hand how it will be dealt with in the not too distant future by the looks of it. Will they hang around to find out or hop over the border to their depleted but beloved UK which by then with be descending into a Xenephobic, racist, isolated outcrop ?

What aliases would these be? I've only ever had one account on P&B and have never had a reason to use an alias.

But keep throwing mud since answering a straightforward question is beyond your limited capacity.

27 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

Anyone invoking...as Malky is trying to do here... the tired Unionist trope that 'independence = uncertainty and Union = certainty' is a childish fool that isn't worth listening to.

Same applies to you old bean.

A halfwit is someone who assumes that because the status quo is perfect we should ditch it without so much as a sketch of a plan.

I've repeatedly asked what the plan is. The fact that no one dares to address the question is telling.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's many parts of GERS that can be tidied up by even a simple google search.   

Fuel Duties total £28 Billion pound per year.   8% of this is attributed to Scotland =  £2.24 billion.  

But Scots drive more miles that the UK average.   

'Department for Transport, shows that cars travelled an average of 7,134 miles in 2017'

According to the MOT data, analysed by the pay-per-mile insurance company 
By Miles, cars in Scotland are driven furthest. Vehicles tested in Scotland topped the table at 8,202 miles a year, while cars in south-west London notched up the least, travelling 5,345 miles a year on average.

If Scots are driving around 15% more miles we need another 0.2-0.3 billion additional fuel duties allocated to GERS.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't know the answer to many of those questions, but the last paragraph is incorrect in that even if the figures were accurate, £15b would not have to be made up. Based on GDP of circa 66b a manageable deficit would be considered to be around 3.5b, going by conventional wisdom on the subject. 11.5b would still be a big hole to fill, all the same.
Scotland's GDP is larger than 66 billion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...