Scotland's 15.1 Billion Defecit

[Terry_Tibbs]

How would an independent Scotland bridge the gap without austerity?

By deficit i refer to gap between what we'd be receiving in tax and what we're currently spending. Not the overall debt.

Edited August 26, 2020 by Terry_Tibbs

[oneteaminglasgow]

f**k off, Malky.

[Terry_Tibbs]

Just now, oneteaminglasgow said:

f**k off, Malky.

Did i fry your one brain cell?

[Ross.]

17 minutes ago, Terry_Tibbs said:

How would an independent Scotland bridge the gap without austerity?

By deficit i refer to gap between what we'd be receiving in tax and what we're currently spending. Not the overall debt.

The Scottish government was given a block grant of circa £30bn. It spent circa £30bn. Where is the deficit?

[Terry_Tibbs]

1 minute ago, Ross. said:

The Scottish government was given a block grant of circa £30bn. It spent circa £30bn. Where is the deficit?

We're talking about the deficit we'd inherit if we became independent and how that gap would be bridged.

See the latest Government Expenditure and Revenue report for more information.

[Ross.]

Just now, Terry_Tibbs said:

We're talking about the deficit we'd inherit if we became independent and how that gap would be bridged.

See the latest Government Expenditure and Revenue report for more information.

How does the UK as a whole currently "bridge the gap"?

[tamthebam]

Have a proper tax regime where companies like Amazon pay what they owe and we don't have tax avoidance schemes for the rich? You know, like proper countries. 

Or Scotland could refuse to pay it's share of the Iraq War costs on the grounds that it was illegal..... 

[Beth Paige-Black]

“We are not genetically programmed in Scotland to make political decisions.”

[Bairnardo]

This is great news for Indy and post Indy Scotland.

Those of us so inclined can continue to ignore GERS, and place out Yes vote when the time arrives. Those less inclined to ignore it, and vote No, now know that there is a happy and prosperous rUK they can go and live in if they want to be 1600 theoretical notes better off each year.

Not often a win win situation arrives in politics but here we are with everyone happy.

[scottmcleanscontacts]

“We are not genetically programmed in Scotland to make political decisions.”

This seems to be a trope amongst many who fall on the side of the Union.

It's clearly utterly ridiculous and frankly, rubbish, however.

What we are in this country is programmed to believe that leaving a political union which serves little to no purpose to us would be some kind of catastrophic event.

The brainwashed are gradually becoming less and less though, and through the advent of,in no particular order, Holyrood and the internet, people can begin to look at the alternative way.

[Ross.]

Just now, scottmcleanscontacts said:

This seems to be a trope amongst many who fall on the side of the Union.

It's clearly utterly ridiculous and frankly, rubbish, however.

What we are in this country is programmed to believe that leaving a political union which serves little to no purpose to us would be some kind of catastrophic event.

The brainwashed are gradually becoming less and less though, and through the advent of,in no particular order, Holyrood and the internet, people can begin to look at the alternative way.

It's actually an out of context quote from some SLAB mouthpiece from the run up to the last referendum. Can't remember if it was Jackie Baillie or Johan Lamont.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

I fail to understand how a theoretical defecit as part of the Union, in any shape or form signifies how Scotland would perform economically when we're independent. 

[Paco]

I’d really like a sensible discussion about the GERS figures with people who know what they’re talking about. I’m well aware of many of their limitations, e.g. applying a population share of defence spending to Scotland (~£4bn) that a) doesn’t take into account how much it benefits Scotland or b) whether a hypothetical indy Scotland would even touch such sums. Similar arguments for foreign office spending, foreign aid, etc. And I’m also aware Scotland is assigned a share of certain projects that really do have little to do with Scotland, e.g. I noticed HS2 in the raw data published alongside the report, with a pro-rata share deducted and included in the reported deficit. However a similar infrastructure project in Scotland such as the Queensferry Crossing or the Rail Electrification Project would come out of the Scottish Parliament budget and not show in rUK figures proving an inequity. There are more than 4000 lines in the raw data but most are pretty vague so hard to pin down what they relate to specifically.

Nonetheless the report does show a deficit - as do similar figures for everywhere in the UK except London, the South East and I think the East of England. Is this a mere accounting anomaly, with company headquarters in London therefore seeing London ‘assigned’ things like corporation tax income? Or is that built in to the workings? I’ve read the report and it doesn’t really mention anything about that.

£15bn is a lot to make up and I’d like some actual answers, rather than politicised guesswork. Probably the wrong place, if it’s even possible to answer given the purpose of the exercise isn’t to show what an independent Scotland’s finances would look like.

[scottmcleanscontacts]

It's actually an out of context quote from some SLAB mouthpiece from the run up to the last referendum. Can't remember if it was Jackie Baillie or Johan Lamont.

Aye, now that you mention it I have a distant memory of something like that being slavered. Lamont fits the bill, certainly.

[welshbairn]

11 minutes ago, Ross. said:

It's actually an out of context quote from some SLAB mouthpiece from the run up to the last referendum. Can't remember if it was Jackie Baillie or Johan Lamont.

 

[Ross.]

8 minutes ago, Paco said:

I’d really like a sensible discussion about the GERS figures with people who know what they’re talking about. I’m well aware of many of their limitations, e.g. applying a population share of defence spending to Scotland (~£4bn) that a) doesn’t take into account how much it benefits Scotland or b) whether a hypothetical indy Scotland would even touch such sums. Similar arguments for foreign office spending, foreign aid, etc. And I’m also aware Scotland is assigned a share of certain projects that really do have little to do with Scotland, e.g. I noticed HS2 in the raw data published alongside the report, with a pro-rata share deducted and included in the reported deficit. However a similar infrastructure project in Scotland such as the Queensferry Crossing or the Rail Electrification Project would come out of the Scottish Parliament budget and not show in rUK figures proving an inequity. There are more than 4000 lines in the raw data but most are pretty vague so hard to pin down what they relate to specifically.

Nonetheless the report does show a deficit - as do similar figures for everywhere in the UK except London, the South East and I think the East of England. Is this a mere accounting anomaly, with company headquarters in London therefore seeing London ‘assigned’ things like corporation tax income? Or is that built in to the workings? I’ve read the report and it doesn’t really mention anything about that.

£15bn is a lot to make up and I’d like some actual answers, rather than politicised guesswork. Probably the wrong place, if it’s even possible to answer given the purpose of the exercise isn’t to show what an independent Scotland’s finances would look like.

I don't know the answer to many of those questions, but the last paragraph is incorrect in that even if the figures were accurate, £15b would not have to be made up. Based on GDP of circa 66b a manageable deficit would be considered to be around 3.5b, going by conventional wisdom on the subject. 11.5b would still be a big hole to fill, all the same.

[Ross.]

11 minutes ago, scottmcleanscontacts said:

Aye, now that you mention it I have a distant memory of something like that being slavered. Lamont fits the bill, certainly.

Turns out it was Lamont. Her point, when looked at in full, is correct. There is no guarantee that an independent Scotland would automatically make better political decisions than rUK. The way she worded it however invited the merciless abuse she deservedly got.

[scottmcleanscontacts]

Turns out it was Lamont. Her point, when looked at in full, is correct. There is no guarantee that an independent Scotland would automatically make better political decisions than rUK. The way she worded it however invited the merciless abuse she deservedly got.

I suppose it's the case with anything though.

I'm a supporter of an Independent Scotland, let's get that out the way, but I'm neither naive or daft enough to realise that it may not be plain sailing should it happen.

The alternative is probably scarier though.....

[Beth Paige-Black]

I've every confidence income streams will increase when we run fiscal policies to suit Scotand, not London.  

[Jacksgranda]

1 hour ago, Terry_Tibbs said:

How would an independent Scotland bridge the gap without austerity?

By deficit i refer to gap between what we'd be receiving in tax and what we're currently spending. Not the overall debt.

I don't know. Would there be a deficit in an independent Scotland?