jimbaxters Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, glensmad said: 28 minutes ago, Edgar81 said: Sorry, I don't understand you're question (Apologies, English is not my first language). When a team plays at home - the rating is increased by 70 points before computing the points exchanged. Update after yesterday's matches: 77.769% - Auchinleck Talbot 22.22% - Darvel 0.011% - Pollok I've absolutely no idea what this is about. I feel like I'm having my cyber pants taken down. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edgar81 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 I used to own this blog - that's where I started running simulations for various competitions. Based on a list of 41292 Scottish results and Roonba's club ranking (Mark has a problem with the certificate of the website) I determined a function using polynomial regression that allows me to compute the expected goals scored between 2 teams knowing their ratings. The program generates a random number and based on that value it determines the score of a match. I do this for the remaining matches in HL/LL playoff, EoS, WoS. This is repeated 100000 times. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanner Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Edgar81 said: I used to own this blog - that's where I started running simulations for various competitions. Based on a list of 41292 Scottish results and Roonba's club ranking (Mark has a problem with the certificate of the website) I determined a function using polynomial regression that allows me to compute the expected goals scored between 2 teams knowing their ratings. The program generates a random number and based on that value it determines the score of a match. I do this for the remaining matches in HL/LL playoff, EoS, WoS. This is repeated 100000 times. Was thinking it was probably something like that. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glensmad Posted April 21, 2022 Author Share Posted April 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, Edgar81 said: I used to own this blog - that's where I started running simulations for various competitions. Based on a list of 41292 Scottish results and Roonba's club ranking (Mark has a problem with the certificate of the website) I determined a function using polynomial regression that allows me to compute the expected goals scored between 2 teams knowing their ratings. The program generates a random number and based on that value it determines the score of a match. I do this for the remaining matches in HL/LL playoff, EoS, WoS. This is repeated 100000 times. Of course, I should have remembered the old polynomial regression thing, silly me. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornOffside Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 1 hour ago, glensmad said: 1 hour ago, Edgar81 said: Sorry, I don't understand you're question (Apologies, English is not my first language). When a team plays at home - the rating is increased by 70 points before computing the points exchanged. Update after yesterday's matches: 77.769% - Auchinleck Talbot 22.22% - Darvel 0.011% - Pollok I've absolutely no idea what this is about. Chance of winning the league, i think. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theesel1994 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Edgar81 said: I used to own this blog - that's where I started running simulations for various competitions. Based on a list of 41292 Scottish results and Roonba's club ranking (Mark has a problem with the certificate of the website) I determined a function using polynomial regression that allows me to compute the expected goals scored between 2 teams knowing their ratings. The program generates a random number and based on that value it determines the score of a match. I do this for the remaining matches in HL/LL playoff, EoS, WoS. This is repeated 100000 times. Did it predict Largs beating Beith 8-1 ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edgar81 Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 In 100000 runs, this 8-1 happened only 21 times. I never said it predicted the future The program generates scores randomly based on formula explained earlier. Most probable results were: 9.297% - 1-1 8.532% - 2-1 7.528% - 1-2 7.111% - 2-2 5.522% - 1-0 5.272% - 3-1 5.142% - 2-0 5.04% - 0-1 4.435% - 3-2 4.185% - 1-3 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbaxters Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 26 minutes ago, Edgar81 said: In 100000 runs, this 8-1 happened only 21 times. I never said it predicted the future The program generates scores randomly based on formula explained earlier. Most probable results were: 9.297% - 1-1 8.532% - 2-1 7.528% - 1-2 7.111% - 2-2 5.522% - 1-0 5.272% - 3-1 5.142% - 2-0 5.04% - 0-1 4.435% - 3-2 4.185% - 1-3 Ergo a load of dung 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeedsPhil Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 Fixtures for Saturday 14th May and for Saturday 21st May have Cumbernauld United and Kirky Rob Roy both at home at the same time. 21st is showing KRR borrowing Duncansfield. 14th says both at Guys Meadow, but I'm guessing KRR will have to use Kilsyth that day too (?) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurcer Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 (edited) 9 hours ago, Edgar81 said: I used to own this blog - that's where I started running simulations for various competitions. Based on a list of 41292 Scottish results and Roonba's club ranking (Mark has a problem with the certificate of the website) I determined a function using polynomial regression that allows me to compute the expected goals scored between 2 teams knowing their ratings. The program generates a random number and based on that value it determines the score of a match. I do this for the remaining matches in HL/LL playoff, EoS, WoS. This is repeated 100000 times. As someone whose first language is English, I would love this explained to me. Edited April 21, 2022 by Lurcer 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AsimButtHitsASix Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Lurcer said: As someone whose first language is English, I would love this explained to me. Basically the Elo club ranking used by Roonba looks at the relative strength of each team. It looks at previous results between other clubs of similar strengths and other various attributes of the clubs to predict the likliehood of each outcome and selects an outcome based on that. The user then repeats this 100,000 times to get the likelihood of each outcome. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurcer Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 16 minutes ago, AsimButtHitsASix said: Basically the Elo club ranking used by Roonba looks at the relative strength of each team. It looks at previous results between other clubs of similar strengths and other various attributes of the clubs to predict the likliehood of each outcome and selects an outcome based on that. The user then repeats this 100,000 times to get the likelihood of each outcome. Thank you very much for that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GNU_Linux Posted April 23, 2022 Share Posted April 23, 2022 Blantyre vs Cumnock aff due to unforseen circumstances. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanner Posted April 23, 2022 Share Posted April 23, 2022 Darvels league to lose now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darvel legend Posted April 23, 2022 Share Posted April 23, 2022 Comfortable first half for us today and deserved 2 goal lead at half time but second half would have got football stopped , but be all and end all when it’s bumpy parks is to get 3 points and at this time Of the season it’s greatly appreciated , still twists and turns to come 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GNU_Linux Posted April 23, 2022 Share Posted April 23, 2022 Advantage Darvel at the top. Important wins for Glenafton, Rob Roy, Largs & Glencairn with the first three being surprise results. Ladeside confirmed as doon. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rutherglen glencairn Posted April 23, 2022 Share Posted April 23, 2022 Highlights of Glencairn v Kilbirnie https://youtu.be/1aZkqDCszhI 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_Pride Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 Any indication on when Season 2022-2023 will kick off? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig fae the Vale Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, South_Pride said: Any indication on when Season 2022-2023 will kick off? Scheduled for Saturday 30th July. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glenconner Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 On 31/03/2022 at 08:55, Sancho Panza said: He may have a point but let's not forget it was his threat of legal action that forced the increase to 20 teams hence 38 game season. PS £12k would buy a couple of decent drains Interesting 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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