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On 18/09/2020 at 16:05, timeforchange said:

Ok guys as survey time comes closer let’s have a wee look at the questions 

 

will fans be allowed in ? Don’t know 

will club survive without gate money ?no

Are you allowed to use the showers  ? Don’t know 

is that a health risk in the winter months  ? Possibly yes 

can the full league season be completed ? Don’t know 

how ca  you vote yes on the unknown. Yes we all want to play and watch football . It’s our life and blood but there becomes a point that you have to close the drain. You can’t keep emptying the well . The clubs have had no financial support from the Sfa. The big clubs all got £50,000 to help we got SFA . Some big clubs gave their donation away to their charity foundations could they not have helped out the lower league clubs and gave a donation to the associations. Let’s look very closely at the situation lots of Managers and players  would like season to start they are hoping to get paid but club officials and volunteers are working their baws aff to make sure their clubs survive selling raffles getting sponsorship etc when nobody knows what’s happening unfortunately I think it’s a defo no go this season and hope everybody does the most sensible thing when the survey comes out . Don’t vote on the unknown vote on what info is available . A referee when inspecting the pitch on a wi gers morning can’t say pitch will be thawed out by 2 pm . More clubs will survive and come back a lot stronger if we wait and start next season. 

 

It’s alright saying wait until next season, but who’s to say things are going to be different by then? There may not be a vaccine until 2022/3, do we just can football and “living” until then? 

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9 hours ago, Thereisalight.. said:

It’s alright saying wait until next season, but who’s to say things are going to be different by then? There may not be a vaccine until 2022/3, do we just can football and “living” until then? 

Unless the virus miraculously disappears as quick as it arrived, there may always be cases, hopefully not in large numbers. Seeing as people don't know they've had/got the virus, you can't wrap things in cotton wool forever. Football at non league level with fans should start in October - the professional game is different,30,000 outside a ground is risky. Wear a mask, socially distance, gives the game a chance.

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38 minutes ago, Andy groundhopper said:

Unless the virus miraculously disappears as quick as it arrived, there may always be cases, ...

Once herd immunity is achieved it should slowly fade as long as it doesn't mutate into a form that people who had it previously have not built up an immune response for. So far the mutation rate has been low fortunately., so that's unlikely.

Herd immunity means there are not enough people available to be infected for R0 to be above one and for the virus to be able to keep spreading to more people. With a highly contagious virus pandemic herd immunity usually happens naturally in any population after two to three months of exponential growth rather than through lockdown and vaccination.

Optimists think we are close to herd immunity already with COVID-19 because it ultimately turned out that a large portion of the population had pre-existing cross-immunity from being exposed to other coronaviruses, so the exponential growth in cases in most western countries at the start of the year was enough to start drastically lowering the R0 making the lockdowns a bit of a waste of time.

 Pessimists ignore the evidence that has been accumulating on cross-immunity and think we are on the brink of a huge second wave of deaths and ICU admissions if restrictions are not reimposed because lockdowns were effective and we are still far away from herd immunity with no vaccine imminent.

It won't be long until there is a very clear picture on which camp is correct, because we have some countries available like Sweden, Belarus and most recently South Africa to compare what happens with fewer restrictions in place.

Governments in the UK are being very cautious right now because they want to be 100% sure the optimistic outlook is correct having already received what appears to have been misleading advice about probable peak severity from experts at the start of the year that led to the huge flap over Dyson ventilators etc.

Edited by LongTimeLurker

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Have to laugh at this let fans in campaign. 

Good intentions but totally pointless and will go nowhere. 

Do people not realise agree with it or not we are heading only one way more and more local lockdowns, and restrictions on everyday life with strong possibility of another lockdown nationwide for at least a couple of weeks.  This will play out till least the new year making any credible season impossible. 

Football is irrelevant to the decision makers and in the grand scheme of things as much as i love football it really is lowest priority in a health pandemic sooner people realise that the better. 

Edited by rncaa

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10 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Once herd immunity is achieved it should slowly fade as long as it doesn't mutate into a form that people who had it previously have not built up an immune response for. So far the mutation rate has been low fortunately., so that's unlikely.

Herd immunity means there are not enough people available to be infected for R0 to be above one and for the virus to be able to keep spreading to more people. With a highly contagious virus pandemic herd immunity usually happens naturally in any population after two to three months of exponential growth rather than through lockdown and vaccination.

Optimists think we are close to herd immunity already with COVID-19 because it ultimately turned out that a large portion of the population had pre-existing cross-immunity from being exposed to other coronaviruses, so the exponential growth in cases in most western countries at the start of the year was enough to start drastically lowering the R0 making the lockdowns a bit of a waste of time.

 Pessimists ignore the evidence that has been accumulating on cross-immunity and think we are on the brink of a huge second wave of deaths and ICU admissions if restrictions are not reimposed because lockdowns were effective and we are still far away from herd immunity with no vaccine imminent.

It won't be long until there is a very clear picture on which camp is correct, because we have some countries available like Sweden, Belarus and most recently South Africa to compare what happens with fewer restrictions in place.

Governments in the UK are being very cautious right now because they want to be 100% sure the optimistic outlook is correct having already received what appears to have been misleading advice about probable peak severity from experts at the start of the year that led to the huge flap over Dyson ventilators etc.

You support Trump too?

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2 hours ago, TFW said:

You support Trump too?

When and whether herd immunity is achieved will be determined by the science involved not by politics.

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My opinion is that covid19 has now become political v science, and the bog end of society will not do as advised,can just imagine another lockdown prior to Christmas Oh dear what chaos. Any news of any positive tests after the latest friendly games ? 

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Contracts kick in if they are pros as soon as the clubs ask them to start training. Would you go to your work for nothing for 6 weeks before being asked to do the job for real? An hourly rate doesn't come into it, if you are asked to attend your place of employment you are entitled to NMW whether it's in your contract or not

Couple of points.
Contracts dont kick in til real football starts, so anything agreed between club and players meantime is exactly that, an Agreement.
Never seen a contract yet that mentions hourly rate,not even sure if minimum wage applies either.
 Do some folk actually think clubs should start paying players straight away with no gate money, keep doing so for an indefinite period then just fold when nothing left.

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9 hours ago, Andy groundhopper said:

My opinion is that covid19 has now become political v science, and the bog end of society will not do as advised, ...

My point was mainly that people shouldn't take what someone is describing in terms of science and make assumptions about their politics. Science should be evidence based and not driven by what you want to happen.

Governments acted earlier this year on the assumption that 100% of the population had no immune system response and the fatality rate for people who became infected would be about 2%.

Under that scenario letting herd immunity unfold naturally was a complete non-starter for most people (Boris Johnson was one of the minority on that). The near complete lack of a response from Jan-Mar in the UK and other western countries was irresponsible in the extreme given that backdrop.

Since then it now looks more like 0.2% on fatality rate (closer to bad flu year territory, basically) and herd immunity kicking in after only 20% get infected because of cross-immunity rather than the 70% expected if everybody had no immune response.

There were some early indications from cruise ships that was probably going to be the case, but I doubt that information guided government policy as the panic over ventilators strongly points to them still expecting the worst case scenario back in late March and early April.

The scientific evidence is now pointing strongly towards the pandemic being largely over in western Europe and lifting restrictions and getting the economy (and by extension but not as importantly WoS) going being the sensible course of action, but the optics of pushing ahead with that while the new cases curve is heading in the wrong direction as efficient testing ramps up are not easy for the politicians.

It will only take a few more weeks for this to be resolved one way or the other, because deaths will have either risen exponentially then peaked in an April to June sort of way or not by that point. The local lockdown measures that are being imposed appear to be about being seen to do something without really reversing most of what has already been opened up again.

If the powers that be thought we were in for a huge problem the new restrictions would be much more stringent. We are unlucky that in a Scottish context that the reopening hadn't included lower level football crowds yet unlike in England, but hang in there a few more weeks and good things should start happening by the looks of things.

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4 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

My point was mainly that people shouldn't take what someone is describing in terms of science and make assumptions about their politics. Science should be evidence based and not driven by what you want to happen.

Governments acted earlier this year on the assumption that 100% of the population had no immune system response and the fatality rate for people who became infected would be about 2%.

Under that scenario letting herd immunity unfold naturally was a complete non-starter for most people (Boris Johnson was one of the minority on that). The near complete lack of a response from Jan-Mar in the UK and other western countries was irresponsible in the extreme given that backdrop.

Since then it now looks more like 0.2% on fatality rate (closer to bad flu year territory, basically) and herd immunity kicking in after only 20% get infected because of cross-immunity rather than the 70% expected if everybody had no immune response.

There were some early indications from cruise ships that was probably going to be the case, but I doubt that information guided government policy as the panic over ventilators strongly points to them still expecting the worst case scenario back in late March and early April.

The scientific evidence is now pointing strongly towards the pandemic being largely over in western Europe and lifting restrictions and getting the economy (and by extension but not as importantly WoS) going being the sensible course of action, but the optics of pushing ahead with that while the new cases curve is heading in the wrong direction as efficient testing ramps up are not easy for the politicians.

It will only take a few more weeks for this to be resolved one way or the other, because deaths will have either risen exponentially then peaked in an April to June sort of way or not by that point. The local lockdown measures that are being imposed appear to be about being seen to do something without really reversing most of what has already been opened up again.

If the powers that be thought we were in for a huge problem the new restrictions would be much more stringent. We are unlucky that in a Scottish context that the reopening hadn't included lower level football crowds yet unlike in England, but hang in there a few more weeks and good things should start happening by the looks of things.

Where is the scientific information that it is over in Western Europe? Cases are escalating in many countries look at France 15k plus per day. Today the chief scientific adviser warned of a potential 50k cases per day in the UK with 200 plus deaths daily a month down the line. ( Thats 0.4% mortalty). Where is the evidence you talk about of this immunity I would be interested to read it as the biggest study shows 7% with antibodies a long way off herd immunity.

 

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2 hours ago, tell_me_more said:

Where is the scientific information that it is over in Western Europe? ...

Google it and beyond that what I wrote was "largely over" not "over". I am well aware that the "second wave" is unfolding right now. We'll know very soon in the space of a few weeks what the story is going to be on that because the data on deaths and ICU admissions will provide the answer on the way forward on this. The point of my post was that people should not listen to the doomsayers that are saying the season has no chance of happening and leagues should just give up on having one.

Edited by LongTimeLurker

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I think it's a racing certainty peasy.

Much as I want to see the game take off and flourish again up here I only want it to do so if and when it's safe. I realise that's a pessimistic outlook to some - I prefer to call it pragmatic - but football at any cost is a no starter for me. Think there will be serious talks about cancelling the season in the not too distant future if it does get cancelled again?

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Nobody's forced to participate, if they prefer not to take any risks. If pubs and restaurants are open and people can fly overseas on holiday, the idea that having spectators socially distanced outside at WoS football games makes a critical difference either way in the larger scheme of things at this point is entering the realm of mass hysteria. 

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There's already been a couple of teams down in the English non-league taking the year out. Merthyr Town looks to be the latest. Which seems to be in part due to the difference between how the Welsh & English governments are handling things.

Plus games are being cancelled for those still trying to get the season done. The games are starting to add up for this midweek alone

https://www.nonleaguematters.co.uk/forums/index.php?threads/games-off-monday-21st-september-to-friday-25th-september.2641/#post-48289

In Scotland I imagine there will be those clubs that carry on and get some sort of season completed, but there's going to be more than just Buckie Rovers sitting out the season.

 

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Correct, mass hysteria, panic stations. 50k cases a day is idiotic to say the least. Personally I want football back at non league level because I feel we are being victimised, the pubs and shops can carry on regardless. The virus is airborne, like flu, so you're probably unlucky if you get it.  So long as the clubs want to play, let's get it going. I'm almost 59 and happily attend games, being sensible.

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