Restart

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, coach said:

Reports this morning suggest won't happen until 2024.

The idea of a vaccine arriving to save the day was mainly being used in the first half of the year to give people the idea that they could somehow stay safe and would be able to avoid being exposed to the virus as that helped them from a mental health sort of angle. Anyone who understood how exponential curves work when an R0 number is well above 1 knew better, so the explanation they got for the lockdown was that the active infection numbers curve had to be flattened so ICU capacity wasn't completely overwhelmed when the first wave hit its peak. As it turned out it wasn't and the peak on fatalities was about an order of magnitude lower than originally feared.

Despite all the recent media hysteria the number of daily deaths is still a flat line close to zero, so the "second wave" is mainly a result of a lot more testing being done now on mild cases than was the case back in April. There is nothing inevitable about not having a season at WoS sort of level in other words, because the pandemic is now most likely largely over in a UK context and most people have already had their chance to play Russian roulette with it. In most cases that will be unknowingly because they were asymptomatic or had some sort of cross-immunity from earlier coronavirus infections.

The politicians still need the "second wave" to start going down now before lifting more restrictions though because a large chunk of the population doesn't understand any of that and still thinks vaccines are important in all of this because they don't realise the horse has long since galloped away for most people in terms of being exposed to the virus meaning there would be little to be gained now by bolting the stable door with a jag in the upper arm.

Edited September 15, 2020 by LongTimeLurker

[FairWeatherFan]

44 minutes ago, Crazy Feet said:

You would have to say amateur and kids football looks like it has a far greater chance of starting back at this point than the semi pros as it doesn't rely on matchday income from punters.

This could be the perfect time to just bin our current set up and look to move to summer football. A season that runs from March to September/November. Let the guys play in decent weather (for Scottish Standards) and when the pro season is finished surely you would attract more fans down if they aren't going to SPFL games? 

I think the WoSFL will end up starting the 2020-21 season. The lower leagues of the SPFL are going to have the full time clubs be vocal about starting up. The Lowland League seem willing to start hoping that fans will be there sooner than later.

Hamilton have just had a couple of players test positive. St Mirren the week before. All the precautions in the world isn't going to stop this and there's growing pressure to get back to some level of normality.

[tell_me_more]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

 

Despite all the recent media hysteria the number of daily deaths is still a flat line close to zero, so the "second wave" is mainly a result of a lot more testing being done now on mild cases than was the case back in April. There is nothing inevitable about not having a season at WoS sort of level in other words, because the pandemic is now most likely largely over in a UK context and most people have already had their chance to play Russian roulette with it. In most cases that will be unknowingly because they were asymptomatic or had some sort of cross-immunity from earlier coronavirus infections.

The politicians still need the "second wave" to start going down now before lifting more restrictions though because a large chunk of the population doesn't understand any of that and still thinks vaccines are important in all of this because they don't realise the horse has long since galloped away for most people in terms of being exposed to the virus meaning there would be little to be gained now by bolting the stable door with a jag in the upper arm.

The largest study of over 100,000 people a couple o f month back showed on average 7% of the population are carrying antibodies, where is the evidence that the pandemic is over and a second wave could not happen?

 

[gonzohiggy]

2 hours ago, Derry said:

Not the decent players at the better clubs mate they will be gone straight away 

Where are you thinking these decent players are going exactly? I am sure there are some that could go League 1 or 2, others may find a rich amateur team but there will be a significant proportion of what I would call "decent" players who wont have those options.

I would bet many of them would play for expenses and others for free just because they would rather that than not play at all.

[Derry]

3 minutes ago, gonzohiggy said:

Where are you thinking these decent players are going exactly? I am sure there are some that could go League 1 or 2, others may find a rich amateur team but there will be a significant proportion of what I would call "decent" players who wont have those options.

I would bet many of them would play for expenses and others for free just because they would rather that than not play at all.

You have just answered your own question lol 

also plenty money in lowland which will have a better chance of starting so there is four leagues at least

Edited September 15, 2020 by Derry

[LongTimeLurker]

Just now, tell_me_more said:

The largest study of over 100,000 people a couple o f month back showed on average 7% of the population are carrying antibodies, where is the evidence that the pandemic is over and a second wave could not happen?

It's not that simple because tests of the type you are referring to only deal with one of several possible immune system responses. The most important evidence that the pandemic is largely over is that deaths and ICU admissions are still largely flatlining despite significantly relaxed and often routinely ignored restrictions. 

[gonzohiggy]

1 minute ago, Derry said:

You have just answered your own question lol

I haven't. The original poster suggest a high proportion of players would play for free. You said not the decent players at the better clubs as they would be off.

If you are talking about a small percentage of players ie some of the boys at Darvel or the odd player at Talbot or Pollok then fine but they are exceptional players as far as this grade goes.

I think of players like Frize, Docherty or Tiny at Beith, all good players at this level but I would think they would all struggle to just move somewhere else at the drop of a hat in the current climate.

[Derry]

If they are good enough no player and I mean no player will be playing for free especially now no shower pissing down travelling everywhere themselves then running the risk of injury or illness then missing there own work or putting there own family at risk all for free not a hope in hell  

[NUMBER 7]

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=327451401858999

400 Crowd at Leek Town FA Cup tie last Saturday, can't see a problem Most of League ,1 League 2, Lowland League getting going with folks allowed in. 

[Derry]

3 minutes ago, NUMBER 7 said:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=327451401858999

400 Crowd at Leek Town FA Cup tie last Saturday, can't see a problem Most of League ,1 League 2, Lowland League getting going with folks allowed in. 

That’s my hope mate then if that goes well west etc should get to start with fans a little later fingers crossed but I won’t hold my breath 

[GordonS]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

As it turned out it wasn't and the peak on fatalities was about an order of magnitude lower than originally feared.

This idea really needs to be put to bed.

The predicted peak - you're right, about 10 times what we've had - was in the event that there was no mitigation. The reason it didn't reach that level is *because* we had lockdown. Even then, it was still 10 times worse than the best case scenario.

If we lifted restrictions now we would probably still hit that peak.

Quote

Despite all the recent media hysteria the number of daily deaths is still a flat line close to zero, so the "second wave" is mainly a result of a lot more testing being done now on mild cases than was the case back in April. There is nothing inevitable about not having a season at WoS sort of level in other words, because the pandemic is now most likely largely over in a UK context and most people have already had their chance to play Russian roulette with it. In most cases that will be unknowingly because they were asymptomatic or had some sort of cross-immunity from earlier coronavirus infections.

Maybe, and maybe even probably. But there is insufficient evidence to be confident of that and the cost of getting it wrong would be horrendous. In the US deaths continued to decline for 4 weeks after infections started to rise again, and they almost reached the level of the first peak again. We need to wait a bit longer.

Quote

The politicians still need the "second wave" to start going down now before lifting more restrictions though because a large chunk of the population doesn't understand any of that and still thinks vaccines are important in all of this because they don't realise the horse has long since galloped away for most people in terms of being exposed to the virus meaning there would be little to be gained now by bolting the stable door with a jag in the upper arm.

And you'll be in possession of millions of antibody test results, yes? Otherwise, how could you know? Don't say common sense.

Come on, you're flying theories - good ones, but still theories - while the people in charge have to worry about actual people dying or being left with life-limiting health problems.

[tell_me_more]

32 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

It's not that simple because tests of the type you are referring to only deal with one of several possible immune system responses. The most important evidence that the pandemic is largely over is that deaths and ICU admissions are still largely flatlining despite significantly relaxed and often routinely ignored restrictions. 

The tests seemed pretty detailed but time will tell, hopefully you are correct. but personally I don't think for one minute UK is anywhere near here immunity look at how the cases are rising throughout Europe why would we be any different from the likes of France? Unfortunately the weaker frailer members of society will bear the brunt and the mortality stats will rise .
https://www.imperial.nhs.uk/about-us/news/largest-home-antibody-testing-publishes-results

[Derry]

When was the last death from Covid in Scotland aside from the one yesterday ? 
 Could only see this 

Edited September 15, 2020 by Derry

[jimbaxters]

33 minutes ago, NUMBER 7 said:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=327451401858999

400 Crowd at Leek Town FA Cup tie last Saturday, can't see a problem Most of League ,1 League 2, Lowland League getting going with folks allowed in. 

This post gets to the root of the problem.

Edited September 15, 2020 by jimbaxters

[gonzohiggy]

42 minutes ago, Derry said:

If they are good enough no player and I mean no player will be playing for free especially now no shower pissing down travelling everywhere themselves then running the risk of injury or illness then missing there own work or putting there own family at risk all for free not a hope in hell  

Do you think getting paid £50-£150 per week (or more for the "exceptions" I mentioned earlier) is going to stop the risk of injury / illness / missing work / putting family at risk? Of course it won't.

I am sure there will be players who will choose not to play for the reasons you note but that wasn't your point.

If supporters are not allowed in, there will be many players in the WOS premier who will choose to play for expenses / free rather than not at all.

Not sure why you think there are going to be queues of part time clubs able and willing to take on all these "decent" WOS players when they click their fingers.

Edited September 15, 2020 by gonzohiggy

[Derry]

4 minutes ago, gonzohiggy said:

Do you think getting paid £50-£150 per week (or more for the "exceptions" I mentioned earlier) is going to stop the risk of injury / illness / missing work / putting family at risk? Of course it won't.

I am sure there will be players who will choose not to play for the reasons you note but that wasn't your point.

If supporters are not allowed in, there will be many players in the WOS premier who will choose to play for expenses / free rather than not at all.

Not sure why you think there are going to be queues of part time clubs able and willing to take on all these "decent" WOS players when they click their fingers.

U are so naive lol will u travel to work which this is for most of them as they rely on that money same as u or me would so would u travel and cost of your own 3 times a week all over to work for free ?? 

 

the full argument is irrelevant as if this virus doesn’t decrease then most of these lads probably won’t play again so hopefully there is a opportunity for lads to play whether paid or not which looks unlikely this season 

Edited September 15, 2020 by Derry

[gonzohiggy]

1 minute ago, Derry said:

U are so naive lol will u travel to work which this is for most of them as they really on that money same as u or me would so would u travel and cost of your own 3 times a week all over to work for free ?? 

Mate if any of these guys is treating this is a job I think they should get a new career as the pay is crap!!

They are not professional footballers. 

If they have a choice of football for free or no football, many of them would play for free. 

The majority of decent players would not find it easy to just leave and go and play somewhere else. And I am naive  

[LongTimeLurker]

15 minutes ago, GordonS said:

This idea really needs to be put to bed.

The predicted peak - you're right, about 10 times what we've had - was in the event that there was no mitigation...

It's actually highly questionable whether there was any effective mitigation in a Scottish context. Check out what Taiwan or South Korea did for what would have needed to be done to stop the outbreak in its tracks. Get in early with large scale testing and track and trace with the first cases and have stringent lockdown measures well before the pandemic was even noticeable for most people. Nothing like that was happening in most European countries, because of the massive backlash there would have been from a civil liberties angle. Instead of that, the exponential curve on deaths and ICU admissions was already starting to rocket up when the UK finally took some action by imposing a lockdown and that's way too late in the day to make much difference, if you understand how an exponential curve works.

[Derry]

5 minutes ago, gonzohiggy said:

Mate if any of these guys is treating this is a job I think they should get a new career as the pay is crap!!

They are not professional footballers. 

If they have a choice of football for free or no football, many of them would play for free. 

The majority of decent players would not find it easy to just leave and go and play somewhere else. And I am naive  

No but plenty of them will be paying there mortgage at least off this money
 

let me make it simple u sign a player u say here this is ur wage I expect u to travel here for training and games etc we will pay u this amount then u ask same player to do the same but with no money at all and all the travel to games and training come out here own pocket the most won’t do it we will have to agree to disagree on this I’m not saying they won’t play football but they will just pick a club near home with there mates or so 

Edited September 15, 2020 by Derry

[HuttonDressedAsLahm]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

It's not that simple because tests of the type you are referring to only deal with one of several possible immune system responses. The most important evidence that the pandemic is largely over is that deaths and ICU admissions are still largely flatlining despite significantly relaxed and often routinely ignored restrictions. 

That's not correct.

This journal, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913?query=featured_coronavirus states that although more work is required, that lower incidences of hospitalisation and serious cases are due the *ongoing* implementation of social distancing and other mitigation strategies - namely masks.

Implicit in that report is that removing these barriers would simply result in a return towards the horrendous situation we saw April to June in Europe and elsewhere.  The only way to keep it contained, is to continue with barriers.  

We don't stop wearing seatbelts because road accident fatalities are down.  You don't stop preventative measures because ICUs are quieter.