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[The Ilford Drummer]

Managers group to lobby IMG  for 10th Oct start.

 Tail wagging dog.

Edited September 20, 2020 by The Ilford Drummer

[FairWeatherFan]

I see Glasgow City are moving to Broadwood temporarily as Petershill Park is unavailable. Their league season doesn't start until November, does this impact Petershill as well?

https://www.glasgowcityfc.co.uk/latest/2020/9/20/city-make-temporary-move-to-broadwood-stadium

[TFW]

10 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Once herd immunity is achieved it should slowly fade as long as it doesn't mutate into a form that people who had it previously have not built up an immune response for. So far the mutation rate has been low fortunately., so that's unlikely.

Herd immunity means there are not enough people available to be infected for R0 to be above one and for the virus to be able to keep spreading to more people. With a highly contagious virus pandemic herd immunity usually happens naturally in any population after two to three months of exponential growth rather than through lockdown and vaccination.

Optimists think we are close to herd immunity already with COVID-19 because it ultimately turned out that a large portion of the population had pre-existing cross-immunity from being exposed to other coronaviruses, so the exponential growth in cases in most western countries at the start of the year was enough to start drastically lowering the R0 making the lockdowns a bit of a waste of time.

 Pessimists ignore the evidence that has been accumulating on cross-immunity and think we are on the brink of a huge second wave of deaths and ICU admissions if restrictions are not reimposed because lockdowns were effective and we are still far away from herd immunity with no vaccine imminent.

It won't be long until there is a very clear picture on which camp is correct, because we have some countries available like Sweden, Belarus and most recently South Africa to compare what happens with fewer restrictions in place.

Governments in the UK are being very cautious right now because they want to be 100% sure the optimistic outlook is correct having already received what appears to have been misleading advice about probable peak severity from experts at the start of the year that led to the huge flap over Dyson ventilators etc.

You support Trump too?

[ibenji]

got to love all these experts virologists  commentating on a lower league football forum!

[LongTimeLurker]

2 hours ago, TFW said:

You support Trump too?

When and whether herd immunity is achieved will be determined by the science involved not by politics.

[Andy groundhopper]

My opinion is that covid19 has now become political v science, and the bog end of society will not do as advised,can just imagine another lockdown prior to Christmas Oh dear what chaos. Any news of any positive tests after the latest friendly games ? 

[iceicebaby]

Contracts kick in if they are pros as soon as the clubs ask them to start training. Would you go to your work for nothing for 6 weeks before being asked to do the job for real? An hourly rate doesn't come into it, if you are asked to attend your place of employment you are entitled to NMW whether it's in your contract or not

Couple of points.
Contracts dont kick in til real football starts, so anything agreed between club and players meantime is exactly that, an Agreement.
Never seen a contract yet that mentions hourly rate,not even sure if minimum wage applies either.
 Do some folk actually think clubs should start paying players straight away with no gate money, keep doing so for an indefinite period then just fold when nothing left.

[LongTimeLurker]

9 hours ago, Andy groundhopper said:

My opinion is that covid19 has now become political v science, and the bog end of society will not do as advised, ...

My point was mainly that people shouldn't take what someone is describing in terms of science and make assumptions about their politics. Science should be evidence based and not driven by what you want to happen.

Governments acted earlier this year on the assumption that 100% of the population had no immune system response and the fatality rate for people who became infected would be about 2%.

Under that scenario letting herd immunity unfold naturally was a complete non-starter for most people (Boris Johnson was one of the minority on that). The near complete lack of a response from Jan-Mar in the UK and other western countries was irresponsible in the extreme given that backdrop.

Since then it now looks more like 0.2% on fatality rate (closer to bad flu year territory, basically) and herd immunity kicking in after only 20% get infected because of cross-immunity rather than the 70% expected if everybody had no immune response.

There were some early indications from cruise ships that was probably going to be the case, but I doubt that information guided government policy as the panic over ventilators strongly points to them still expecting the worst case scenario back in late March and early April.

The scientific evidence is now pointing strongly towards the pandemic being largely over in western Europe and lifting restrictions and getting the economy (and by extension but not as importantly WoS) going being the sensible course of action, but the optics of pushing ahead with that while the new cases curve is heading in the wrong direction as efficient testing ramps up are not easy for the politicians.

It will only take a few more weeks for this to be resolved one way or the other, because deaths will have either risen exponentially then peaked in an April to June sort of way or not by that point. The local lockdown measures that are being imposed appear to be about being seen to do something without really reversing most of what has already been opened up again.

If the powers that be thought we were in for a huge problem the new restrictions would be much more stringent. We are unlucky that in a Scottish context that the reopening hadn't included lower level football crowds yet unlike in England, but hang in there a few more weeks and good things should start happening by the looks of things.

[tell_me_more]

4 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

My point was mainly that people shouldn't take what someone is describing in terms of science and make assumptions about their politics. Science should be evidence based and not driven by what you want to happen.

Governments acted earlier this year on the assumption that 100% of the population had no immune system response and the fatality rate for people who became infected would be about 2%.

Under that scenario letting herd immunity unfold naturally was a complete non-starter for most people (Boris Johnson was one of the minority on that). The near complete lack of a response from Jan-Mar in the UK and other western countries was irresponsible in the extreme given that backdrop.

Since then it now looks more like 0.2% on fatality rate (closer to bad flu year territory, basically) and herd immunity kicking in after only 20% get infected because of cross-immunity rather than the 70% expected if everybody had no immune response.

There were some early indications from cruise ships that was probably going to be the case, but I doubt that information guided government policy as the panic over ventilators strongly points to them still expecting the worst case scenario back in late March and early April.

The scientific evidence is now pointing strongly towards the pandemic being largely over in western Europe and lifting restrictions and getting the economy (and by extension but not as importantly WoS) going being the sensible course of action, but the optics of pushing ahead with that while the new cases curve is heading in the wrong direction as efficient testing ramps up are not easy for the politicians.

It will only take a few more weeks for this to be resolved one way or the other, because deaths will have either risen exponentially then peaked in an April to June sort of way or not by that point. The local lockdown measures that are being imposed appear to be about being seen to do something without really reversing most of what has already been opened up again.

If the powers that be thought we were in for a huge problem the new restrictions would be much more stringent. We are unlucky that in a Scottish context that the reopening hadn't included lower level football crowds yet unlike in England, but hang in there a few more weeks and good things should start happening by the looks of things.

Where is the scientific information that it is over in Western Europe? Cases are escalating in many countries look at France 15k plus per day. Today the chief scientific adviser warned of a potential 50k cases per day in the UK with 200 plus deaths daily a month down the line. ( Thats 0.4% mortalty). Where is the evidence you talk about of this immunity I would be interested to read it as the biggest study shows 7% with antibodies a long way off herd immunity.

 

[imcvicar]

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/media-resources/science-in-5/episode-1

WHO on herd immunity 

 

Edited September 21, 2020 by imcvicar

[LongTimeLurker]

2 hours ago, tell_me_more said:

Where is the scientific information that it is over in Western Europe? ...

Google it and beyond that what I wrote was "largely over" not "over". I am well aware that the "second wave" is unfolding right now. We'll know very soon in the space of a few weeks what the story is going to be on that because the data on deaths and ICU admissions will provide the answer on the way forward on this. The point of my post was that people should not listen to the doomsayers that are saying the season has no chance of happening and leagues should just give up on having one.

Edited September 21, 2020 by LongTimeLurker

[peasy23]

I would expect contact sports could be prohibited, it's certainly on the list of options that was leaked earlier.

BBC News - Covid in Scotland: Tighter restrictions expected 'within days'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54235608

[TFW]

I think it's a racing certainty peasy.

Much as I want to see the game take off and flourish again up here I only want it to do so if and when it's safe. I realise that's a pessimistic outlook to some - I prefer to call it pragmatic - but football at any cost is a no starter for me. Think there will be serious talks about cancelling the season in the not too distant future if it does get cancelled again?

[LongTimeLurker]

Nobody's forced to participate, if they prefer not to take any risks. If pubs and restaurants are open and people can fly overseas on holiday, the idea that having spectators socially distanced outside at WoS football games makes a critical difference either way in the larger scheme of things at this point is entering the realm of mass hysteria. 

[FairWeatherFan]

There's already been a couple of teams down in the English non-league taking the year out. Merthyr Town looks to be the latest. Which seems to be in part due to the difference between how the Welsh & English governments are handling things.

Plus games are being cancelled for those still trying to get the season done. The games are starting to add up for this midweek alone

https://www.nonleaguematters.co.uk/forums/index.php?threads/games-off-monday-21st-september-to-friday-25th-september.2641/#post-48289

In Scotland I imagine there will be those clubs that carry on and get some sort of season completed, but there's going to be more than just Buckie Rovers sitting out the season.

 

[Andy groundhopper]

Correct, mass hysteria, panic stations. 50k cases a day is idiotic to say the least. Personally I want football back at non league level because I feel we are being victimised, the pubs and shops can carry on regardless. The virus is airborne, like flu, so you're probably unlucky if you get it.  So long as the clubs want to play, let's get it going. I'm almost 59 and happily attend games, being sensible.

[TFW]

It's not mass hysteria just because folk disagree with what's going on, so let's knock that on the head straight away.

You feel "victimised" for not being able to see a game of football? You can though, as long as you don't cross the border. I've seen a game at Penrith, and two at Carlisle City in the last week. However, have now taken the decision to stay at home having done my own risk assessment of things as the situation gets that much worse.

You can be careful all you like, it's the others around you who may not share your concerns where the danger lies. The guys playing the game can't take any such precautions, and I don't want any of the players in the team I support suffering unduly because they've played a contact sport.

How long before we get the first QANon conspiracy theorists on here?

[LongTimeLurker]

49 minutes ago, TFW said:

... You feel "victimised" for not being able to see a game of football? ...

Why put a word in quotes I never used? The reason I see mass hysteria setting in is that the numbers for today so far for the UK appear to be 4368 new cases and 11 deaths on the worldometers page I normally check to see what is happening in various countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Back in April if you check the data plots at that url there would have been up to around 100 times as many deaths as that corresonding to that sort of number of new cases. Any trend on the latter number should have only a 7 to 10 day lag on the former based on what happened previously, so there is nothing so far with this "second wave" to suggest that there is a major problem that really merits a massive U-turn on the process of re-opening that has been underway in recent months. I predicted this issue was coming on here though. Here's what I had to say on this subject just over a month ago:

On 18/08/2020 at 16:18, LongTimeLurker said:

Meanwhile in Wuhan...

If the season doesn't happen it will probably be because Nicola Sturgeon has well and truly lost the plot where the SNP's nanny state tendencies are concerned, but I seriously doubt that will happen. Pandemics usually run out of enough people to infect that don't have immunity built up from a prior infection to keep the R₀ number above 1. Evidence is growing that with COVID-19 that can be from other coronaviruses where a large portion of the population is concerned, which is why the number of people needing a ventilator at peak was a lot less drastic than anticipated.

Suspect it could easily be January rather than October though. The October 17th timeline looks on the optimistic side, because the strict lockdowns mean there could still be enough people that have not been exposed to the virus to generate a significant second wave when the politicians initially try to get back to full normality. Nicola S has a track record of playing it very safe.

[Jack Burton]

Correct, mass hysteria, panic stations. 50k cases a day is idiotic to say the least. Personally I want football back at non league level because I feel we are being victimised, the pubs and shops can carry on regardless. The virus is airborne, like flu, so you're probably unlucky if you get it.  So long as the clubs want to play, let's get it going. I'm almost 59 and happily attend games, being sensible.

It's mass hysteria to call yourself a victim of a pandemic simply because you can't get to a football match.

I'm as keen as anyone to get back to the football but that isn't going to happen when cases are doubling every 7 or 8 days. You might be able to social distance and be outside at the game but the government isn't going to be encouraging thousands of people to travel around the country in cars, buses and trains just to attend a football match. Most people won't be going directly to the game and back again the majority will stop at petrol stations, restaurants, pubs etc.

[LongTimeLurker]

Just now, Ball-foot-score said:

Hate to break it to you but you can’t get herd immunity when all the studies are showing very few people are building any lasting immunity

Many experts on the subject do not share that assessment. Use google and read up on the subject and educate yourself. Who is correct on this will be clear in the not too distant future, because ever more data is accumulating that will provide the definitive answer.