How good are/were Scotland?

[Ian38018]

18 hours ago, Northboy said:

Overall I'd agree with you although we did get a hell of a break at Anfield to qualify for Argentina 1978.

We would have qualified for 1978 with a draw at Anfield.  So, whilst JJ's fist put us in the comfort zone, we were still qualifying before that incident.

[Ian38018]

12 hours ago, GordonS said:

Ask a Northern Irish fan if they'd swap their past for ours and I think they'd say no.

More pertinently ,ask them if they would swap their future for ours, and I think they would also say No.

[Ian38018]

15 hours ago, BigFatTabbyDave said:

I bet he still thinks he did the right thing there. We only lost 1-0, after all.

Levein is so lacking in self-awareness, I am sure the thinks every decision he made for Hearts over the past decade or so was the right one.

[RandomGuy.]

17 hours ago, ahemps said:

I think we have a mindset that we should be better than we are but we are not producing players like Eriksen or Modric semi regularly like they are. Norway can produce a Haaland or Wales can produce a Bale as a one off

Bale - Left Welsh football at 10

Eriksen - Left Danish football at 16 

Haaland - Left Norwegian football at 18

Modric - Left Croatian football at 23

Modric the outlier, but I always wonder how much credit you should really give these countries for "producing" players who leave that country before theyve even matured.

Theres zero way Wales should be credited with developing Bale, as an example.

Maybe our issue is less about Scottish coaching, and more to do with Scottish players not finding their way to bigger clubs earlier and benefiting through that process (see Billy Gilmour as an example of a player following the path of the players mentioned above)

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

5 hours ago, Ian38018 said:

More pertinently ,ask them if they would swap their future for ours, and I think they would also say No.

I don't know how anyone knows that. Ask them if they would swap their squad for ours they'd bite your hand off.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

5 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

Bale - Left Welsh football at 10

Eriksen - Left Danish football at 16 

Haaland - Left Norwegian football at 18

Modric - Left Croatian football at 23

Modric the outlier, but I always wonder how much credit you should really give these countries for "producing" players who leave that country before theyve even matured.

Theres zero way Wales should be credited with developing Bale, as an example.

Maybe our issue is less about Scottish coaching, and more to do with Scottish players not finding their way to bigger clubs earlier and benefiting through that process (see Billy Gilmour as an example of a player following the path of the players mentioned above)

Gilmour was sensational before he left Scotland,becoming the youngest player to ever play and score for Scotland u21s before his first ever training session with Chelsea. There's no hard and fast rules.

[Bully Wee Villa]

With 24 places in the Euros and, as of 2026, 16 places (plus 1 playoff place when a European nation is hosting) in the World Cup, I think Scotland should be aiming to qualify for at least half of the European Championships and one in three World Cups.

Once there, two thirds of qualifiers go through to the knockout round so that should be achievable at least once every two qualifications. Maybe with a decent run to the Quarters of a tournament once every twenty years or so.

There has been too much timidity in recent years. Trying to kid ourselves that a draw against Lithuania might not be too bad, and that we have no chance whatsoever ad midranking sides like the Czechs, so may as well start with no forwards. Start with the belief that we will beat all the teams seeded below us for starters and play with a bit of sodding confidence, for once.

Edited June 20, 2020 by Bully Wee Villa

[Ian38018]

2 hours ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

I don't know how anyone knows that. Ask them if they would swap their squad for ours they'd bite your hand off.

Fair comment, Sir.

[Guest DAVIDB69]

I think our main issue over the last 20 years is the results when it really matters when the pressure is on is our biggest downfall , we haven’t beaten many of our level or just above when it has really mattered .

[GordonS]

17 hours ago, JTS98 said:

A little bit harsh on the 80s sides there. It looks rubbish now, but you need to give it the context of the time. They were tough draws.

The Belgium side who won our 1980 group got to the final and lost narrowly to West Germany. The Austria team in that group had topped Brazil's group at the 78 World Cup and would go on to do well again in 82. They were a good team.

There's no shame in drawing with the 82 USSR side, which was goal difference away from the semi-finals and lost only to Brazil at that tournament. What knocked us out was going to sleep for a few minutes against New Zealand.

We lost narrowly to Denmark in 1986, but they also put 6 past Uruguay and beat eventual finalists West Germany. Two years previously they had lost the Euro semi-final on penalties and two years later they would qualify for the 8-team Euros again and be put on the back foot by a shocking offside decision against Spain. They were a serious outfit.

The other team that beat us (narrowly) in that group was the West Germany side that got to the final of that tournament. It's not a disgraceful showing.

Of course, not beating Uruguay is a bad one given they played about 90 minutes with ten men. But it was an era where teams could, and did, kick each other off the park.

Fine, but all those countries around our size who went on to achieve things, at some point they won a sequence of big games and beat good teams. You list a few good examples with Austria, Belgium and Denmark. Not once in our entire history have we ever done that. 

[GordonS]

15 hours ago, Ian38018 said:

More pertinently ,ask them if they would swap their future for ours, and I think they would also say No.

Maybe, I'm not sure about that. I don't think that's a more pertinent question though, the thread is about what Scotland ought to have achieved at major tournaments.

[John Lambies Doos]

Really is astonishing what we had at our disposal for world cup 82. Leaders everywhere.... But alas we shot ourselves in the foot again......

 

The Scotland squad for the 1982 World Cup was the most internationally adept the nation had ever assembled.

 

Ten European Cup winners' medals between them from the previous five years, three Uefa Cup winners and four European Super Cups. Within another two seasons, they'd have amassed another two European Cups, two more Uefa Cups, four Cup Winners' Cup winners and five more Super Cups.

 

Throw in a collective 63 domestic honours and 503 caps and a legendary European Cup-winning manager in Jock Stein.

 

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/52969661

 

 

[Guest JTS98]

11 hours ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

With 24 places in the Euros and, as of 2026, 16 places (plus 1 playoff place when a European nation is hosting) in the World Cup, I think Scotland should be aiming to qualify for at least half of the European Championships and one in three World Cups.

Once there, two thirds of qualifiers go through to the knockout round so that should be achievable at least once every two qualifications. Maybe with a decent run to the Quarters of a tournament once every twenty years or so.

There has been too much timidity in recent years. Trying to kid ourselves that a draw against Lithuania might not be too bad, and that we have no chance whatsoever ad midranking sides like the Czechs, so may as well start with no forwards. Start with the belief that we will beat all the teams seeded below us for starters and play with a bit of sodding confidence, for once.

To their credit that is one thing Ireland are miles ahead of us in. When I see them pay games like Georgia away etc they seem miles more assertive than we are and seem to start from the assumption that they can win.

There's definitely a timidity about our showings in these games. We get what we expect to get.

I'm not saying that it's as simple as believing you can win, but the gameplan and mentality between our approach and theirs are markedly different.

[John Lambies Doos]

To their credit that is one thing Ireland are miles ahead of us in. When I see them pay games like Georgia away etc they seem miles more assertive than we are and seem to start from the assumption that they can win.
There's definitely a timidity about our showings in these games. We get what we expect to get.
I'm not saying that it's as simple as believing you can win, but the gameplan and mentality between our approach and theirs are markedly different.

Cultural thing

[ahemps]

On 21/06/2020 at 01:41, John Lambies Doos said:

Really is astonishing what we had at our disposal for world cup 82. Leaders everywhere.... But alas we shot ourselves in the foot again......

The Scotland squad for the 1982 World Cup was the most internationally adept the nation had ever assembled.

Ten European Cup winners' medals between them from the previous five years, three Uefa Cup winners and four European Super Cups. Within another two seasons, they'd have amassed another two European Cups, two more Uefa Cups, four Cup Winners' Cup winners and five more Super Cups.

Throw in a collective 63 domestic honours and 503 caps and a legendary European Cup-winning manager in Jock Stein.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/52969661

 

I was watching 'I believe in miracles' on BT sport about Notts Forest winning the European cup. John McGovern captained that side but never even received a Scotland call-up. A double winning European cup captain not even making the squad???

Ken McNaught who won the European cup with Villa also didn't get a cap.

 

[AsimButtHitsASix]

Some quick maths regarding whether it's easier to qualify now or not (this isn't taking the quality of teams into account)

World Cups

1986 (last year before beginning of break up of Eastern European nations) had 12.5 qualifiers out of 32 entrants so there was a 39% chance of qualifying
1990 (qualifying campaign during the break up of Eastern European nations) had 13 qualifiers of 32 so there was a 41% chance of qualifying
1998 (last year we qualified) it was 15 spots out of 50 so there was a 30% chance of qualifying
2018 (most recent) is 13 out of 54 so a 24% chance of qualifying
2026 (expanded world cup) will be 16 out of 55* which brings it back up to 29%
*depending on who the host is and presuming no new countries join UEFA

Euros

1988 (last year before break up of Eastern European nations) had 7 qualifiers out of 32 and a 22% chance of qualifying
1996 (last year we qualified) had 15 out of 47 with a 32% chance of qualifying
2012 (last year before expansion) it was down to 14 out of 51 with a 27% chance of qualifying
2016 (most recent) has went to 23 out of 53 so there's a 43% chance of qualifying.

It's a lot harder to qualify for the World Cup and it's only going to get slightly easier. We only ever managed to qualify for the Euros when it expanded in the early 90s but missing out in 2016 is shameful. Yer practically admitting to be worse than half the other nations in Europe.

[BFTD]

9 hours ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

Another way of looking at it. Since we last qualified for a tournament, how many impressive results have we had, where we've gone out and beat a good team? Beating England at Wembley in the playoffs, beating Holland in the playoffs, France home and away, Ukraine at home, Croatia home and away, Ireland at home, I looked on Wikipedia and saw we beat Norway away 2-1 in one of the campaigns. Are there any/many others? Roughly 10 good results in 20 years and about 3 in the last decade isn't great is it. 

If you wanted to be a miseryguts about it...England were shite when we beat them in the Euro 2000 playoff, being in the middle of Kevin Keegan's disastrous reign, and were roundly cuffed at the finals, except for a win against possibly the worst German side in living memory. Berti Vogts' side did well to manage a 1-0 win against the Netherlands, but I was convinced at the time that the Dutch were expecting to play a halfway decent side of the Craig Brown vintage, so sat off us and figured they'd get the win in the second leg. That was evidenced by the fact that we received the worst beating in modern history; I was genuinely worried that was going to end up at double figures, and might have if they hadn't shown mercy in the last half hour. Ukraine also weren't that good a team, despite having some world-class club players; they essentially had got a free run to the World Cup quarter-finals before that, and almost made a c**t of it in the process. I wouldn't list wins against mediocre Ireland and Norway sides as being particularly impressive either.

...but as I say, only it you want to be glass-half-empty about it  

[DA Baracus]

15 hours ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

In the last 25 years - how long I've been watching Scotland, more or less - I'm not convinced we've ever been good, in the sense I don't think we've ever been a team where a side traditionally slightly better than us would be likely to think "hmm, that might be a tricky away trip". As has been discussed, practically every other country in Europe has been that team at some point. 

The one exception to that might be in the France/Italy/Ukraine qualifying group - but even then how good were we? Not to downplay the wins vs France, but they were excellent shitfests won by the odd goal - nothing more nothing less. The 3-1 Ukraine game is the only one where we convincingly beat 'superior' opposition. 

Another way of looking at it. Since we last qualified for a tournament, how many impressive results have we had, where we've gone out and beat a good team? Beating England at Wembley in the playoffs, beating Holland in the playoffs, France home and away, Ukraine at home, Croatia home and away, Ireland at home, I looked on Wikipedia and saw we beat Norway away 2-1 in one of the campaigns. Are there any/many others? Roughly 10 good results in 20 years and about 3 in the last decade isn't great is it. 

And when we did get such great results we either later negated them by shitting it and having a horror result or had already done the negating/shitting and were under no pressure.

[Uncle Scan]

1974 Unlucky

1978 Should have done better. Bad planning,loyal to  players out of form. Played our strongest team too late

1982 Again should have done better but too negative and gave teams too much respect

1986 Fecked up before we got there over Hansen. Dalglish spat the dummy and never went because of it. Weren't unlucky as we had a chance playing against 10 men for a full match and never looked like scoring

1990 No complaints just weren't good enough

1998 Same as above

I thought we suffered a real hangover from 78 and affected the 82 team where we had a really good squad just Rough not the required standard

[DAFC.]

Looking back at squads in the 70s and 80s, we severely underachieved. We had European Cup winners and players playing at the highest level left, right and centre. We were a match for most teams. I wasn't alive during all this, but the one in particular that my Dad told me that stuck out was the 74 World Cup. He genuinely still believes we could have won that. Maybe we could have. We had a fucking incredible team with genuine world class players all over the pitch. 

The only tournament I can remember far back is World Cup 98, which funnily enough is the last major tournament we were at. Can remember watching the Morrocco game and thought "Wow, we are absolutely crap". We were total horeshit that tournament. We could have maybe done a bit better. I think we should have been beating Norway with the team we had, but I can just remember us being totally outclassed by the Moroccans. We had a few decent players in there but nothing that should be threatening anyone in all honesty. 

Since then, all I have known, bar the 2014 World Cup qualifiers, is glorious failure. Last minute goals, beating big teams whilst losing against the wee ones, conceding contentious goals, missing absolute sitters etc etc. We seem to have terrible luck since the break of the millennium whilst also shooting ourselves in the foot when presented with excellent opportunities. We seem to be able to come up with big results yet let ourselves down against teams we should be beating. There's way too many examples to list and I'd be here all day typing them up. 

Those squads since 2000 haven't been all that impressive tbh. The 2008 qualifiers we had a brilliant management that could get the best out a group of players, sprinkled with players like Alan Hutton, who was absolutely unplayable at times and James McFadden that could come up with magic moments at the right time. Kris Boyd and Kenny Miller were banging in goals for fun in the Premiership, playing regularly in the Champions League and formed an excellent partnership. The other regulars weren't world-beaters, but they knew and played a system that worked and got every ounce of talent out of the them. But, again, we shot ourselves in the foot with that disastrous away defeat to Georgia and were let down with shocking refereeing decisions to allow a last minute sickener against Italy. 

In the 2016 qualifiers we did everything right in the group stage I felt, apart from that bloody Georgia again! It didnt help that Ireland got shock results against Germany as well. That's 4 points they gained that they were never expected to get, ultimately enabling them to clinch the play-off place. Lose both them as expected, then we would have got the play-off place.

2018 World Cup we were very poor to begin with. Very, very poor and it looked like all hope was lost. We drew, at home, against a terrible Lithuania team (that we comfortably smashed in 3-0 in Vilnius later on). The 3-0 game away against Slovakia was shocking. Although we were probably not favourites, I don't think Slovakia had a better team than us in all honesty and we never bothered to turn up. The game against England at Wembley was a total white-wash, and a game we never bothered turning up for either. At that point everyone probably thought Strachan was a goner but they continued with him. The next game we ground out a win against Slovenia where we hit the bar, post and forced their keeper in to incredible saves on several occasions. It just didn't go for us until a last minute winner saved us. There was some hope, but the next game against England wasn't going to be easy. I don't need to explain what happened there. Fucking Stuart Armstrong. Down to the last game against Slovenia, notably tough to come away from there with all 3 points, but we had something to play for and they didn't. First half I thought we controlled the game and looked good. We go in 1-0 up and decide to start the 2nd half as if we'd had our legs tied together with rope. 2-1 down we went and thoroughly deserved hee-haw with that display until we got a last minute consolation. Pumped oot a play-off place. Again, all we would have to have done was beat a garbage Lithuania team, at home by the way, and we would have got the play-off place.

Jesus, that was depressing. Here's to a brighter future and Billy Gilmour saving us. 

Edited June 24, 2020 by DAFC.