Early Predictions for the New Premier

[glensmad]

I can. Your club dodged a bullet and you know it.

I don't know it, and nobody will ever know it for sure.

If you look at the league table, we were 15th, and 13th would have seen us safe.

We had 3 games in hand over Benburb in 14th place, 7 points behind them, and still to play them twice. It's extremely possible that we could have overtaken them.

We had 7 games in hand over Troon in 13th place, 10 points behind them, and still to play them at home. I'm certain we would have overtaken them.

We had 9 home games left to play and only 4 away from home. Our form had also picked up dramatically since the turn of the year, losing only one game, and that was to a last minute goal away to Auchinleck Talbot after leading for more than half of the game. Our last three results were a 2-2 draw away to league leaders Kilwinning Rangers (with one of Kilwinning's goals being a freak own goal), a thoroughly deserved win over Clydebank, and that frustrating defeat away to Auchinleck Talbot.

I and everyone else at the club were very confident of avoiding the bottom three when the games were stopped.

Yes, you can say we dodged a bullet based on the stats up to the end of 2019, but so did Rob Roy, Benburb and Troon. When you still had 43% of your season still to play, and your form was good, you're naturally optimistic of survival.

But we'll never know for sure.

[jimbaxters]

Hands up who thinks Rutherglen would have gone down! 

[Juniorfootball123]

13 minutes ago, glensmad said:

I don't know it, and nobody will ever know it for sure.

If you look at the league table, we were 15th, and 13th would have seen us safe.

We had 3 games in hand over Benburb in 14th place, 7 points behind them, and still to play them twice. It's extremely possible that we could have overtaken them.

We had 7 games in hand over Troon in 13th place, 10 points behind them, and still to play them at home. I'm certain we would have overtaken them.

We had 9 home games left to play and only 4 away from home. Our form had also picked up dramatically since the turn of the year, losing only one game, and that was to a last minute goal away to Auchinleck Talbot after leading for more than half of the game. Our last three results were a 2-2 draw away to league leaders Kilwinning Rangers (with one of Kilwinning's goals being a freak own goal), a thoroughly deserved win over Clydebank, and that frustrating defeat away to Auchinleck Talbot.

I and everyone else at the club were very confident of avoiding the bottom three when the games were stopped.

Yes, you can say we dodged a bullet based on the stats up to the end of 2019, but so did Rob Roy, Benburb and Troon. When you still had 43% of your season still to play, and your form was good, you're naturally optimistic of survival.

But we'll never know for sure.

Referencing a “freak own goal” is clutching at straws. Am sure every team can reflect on injuries, suspensions, own goals and missed chances etc.
 

Glencairn had the second lowest PPG and therefore I would of expected that trend to follow and them to finish second bottom. 

 

I am sure Troon and Benburb would of been looking down the table and thinking there is a potential 9 points when they played Glencairn too? 
 

Anyway, not having a dig just stating a fact, I admire how you defend your club with so much detail. 

[spud4]

I don't know it, and nobody will ever know it for sure.

If you look at the league table, we were 15th, and 13th would have seen us safe.

We had 3 games in hand over Benburb in 14th place, 7 points behind them, and still to play them twice. It's extremely possible that we could have overtaken them.

We had 7 games in hand over Troon in 13th place, 10 points behind them, and still to play them at home. I'm certain we would have overtaken them.

We had 9 home games left to play and only 4 away from home. Our form had also picked up dramatically since the turn of the year, losing only one game, and that was to a last minute goal away to Auchinleck Talbot after leading for more than half of the game. Our last three results were a 2-2 draw away to league leaders Kilwinning Rangers (with one of Kilwinning's goals being a freak own goal), a thoroughly deserved win over Clydebank, and that frustrating defeat away to Auchinleck Talbot.

I and everyone else at the club were very confident of avoiding the bottom three when the games were stopped.

Yes, you can say we dodged a bullet based on the stats up to the end of 2019, but so did Rob Roy, Benburb and Troon. When you still had 43% of your season still to play, and your form was good, you're naturally optimistic of survival.

But we'll never know for sure.

How can you possibly say in one sentence nobody will ever know and on the next sentence say your certain you’d overtake Troon? [emoji15] surely you can’t possibly know if you would’ve taken over Troon?

[glensmad]

How can you possibly say in one sentence nobody will ever know and on the next sentence say your certain you’d overtake Troon? [emoji15] surely you can’t possibly know if you would’ve taken over Troon? [emoji2371]

Fair point. But, given our form, with 7 games in hand (almost all of them at home) and still to play Troon at home as well, I'm as certain as I could be that we would have overcome the points difference to them. But you're right, I can't be absolutely certain, and we'll never know.

I can understand people expecting us to be relegation candidates again. Hopefully we can prove them all wrong.

[glensmad]

Hands up who thinks Rutherglen would have gone down! [emoji1672]

[emoji39]

[spud4]

Fair point. But, given our form, with 7 games in hand (almost all of them at home) and still to play Troon at home as well, I'm as certain as I could be that we would have overcome the points difference to them. But you're right, I can't be absolutely certain, and we'll never know.

I can understand people expecting us to be relegation candidates again. Hopefully we can prove them all wrong.

I think the games in hand for you were certainly your advantage. Difficult to say wether you would’ve won them or lost them for that matter! As you say nobody will ever know. Nobody deserves to be relegated if the leagues couldn’t be finished.

[FairWeatherFan]

4 hours ago, Juniorfootball123 said:

Think it’s that. 

I don't think it is. The way I remember it, the West Region used a balanced home & away version of PPG. That appears to be just PPG. If they did use H&A PPG there would be some discrepancies.

The linked source just goes to the SJFA website where they never updated the table from the last round of games.

EDIT: Some or all of the docs that were used can be found in this twitter thread.

 

Edited June 9, 2020 by FairWeatherFan

[.Stuart.]

16 hours ago, Talbot supporter said:

17 hours ago, .Stuart. said:

Michael Reilly has just signed for us.

As has Dylan Pooler.

Pooler could be good for yous , good player difficult for him to hold down a start at Talbot but could see the potential

Looking forward to seeing him in meadow jersey as is his grandpa Jack Pirrie.