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Colt team proposal


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Posted this in the other thread but nae harm in a cross post. Put it in spoilers tho' as it's a bit TL;DR (short version - colt teams do not work better than loans)

The autist in me just absolutely loves a spreadsheet and analysing data (no idea why I don't look into doing it as a job tbh). So I figured we needed some kind of objective barometer to see what produced the better quality player: loan deals, colt deals or players coming through the lower leagues.



So first I had to decide what constituted a good quality player. I decided the Guardian's list of 100 best players in the world produced every year is a decent barometer. Ex players, journos, coaches, etc from around the world. Should be a decent split. So I looked at these players careers before they made an international debut when they could still be classed as a young or up-and-coming player.

First of all 35 of the players came through at top flight teams without a single game on loan or at a colt club. Basically if yer good enough ye'll get yer game anyway. But that's still only about a third. Here's the rest:

(NB: there is some cross over. Frenkie De Jong, for instance, started playing in the lower leagues for Willem II, signed for Ajax, then started playing for Jong Ajax. So, although he played in the same division for both clubs, only the games for Willem II count as lower league games and his games for Jong Ajax are colt team games)

TOP 100:
29 players came through via Colt teams playing a total of 668 appearances. 15 played more than 20 games for Colt teams
25 players came through after loan spells away playing a total of 978 appearances. Only 15 of them played more than 20+ games away on loan.
28 players came through after playing in the lower leagues playing nearly 1,400 games between them. 24 of them manages more than 20+ games

So it seems that Colt teams aren't any better than the other two systems. They also give young players less games than the other two on average.

TOP 50:
18 players came through via Colt teams playing 407 games. 9 played more than 20 games.
9 players came through via loan spells playing 381 games. 6 played more than 20 games
14 came through lower leagues playing 768 games. 12 played more than 20 games.

TOP 25:
9 colt players, 191 appearances, 4 with 20+ games
3 loan players, 87 appearances, 1 with 20+ games
8 lower league players, 273 appearances, 6 with 20+

TOP 10:
4 colt players 92 appearances, 2 with 20+ games
0 loan players
3 lower league players, 83 appearances, 2 with 20+ games

The higher you get to the absolute legends then it's more likely that clubs aren't gonna be loaning them out. I guess Messi, Mbappe and Ronaldo were always too valuable to spend a season getting "toughened up" in the diddy leagues. Also less likely for these guys to spend time in the lower leagues as these guys would all have been marked out as worldies from a young age so the big clubs would have hovered them up in no time. But, in general, there isn't much difference between the three and, if anything, the best thing to get more players is to have them playing first team football for clubs as early as possible. Not on loan and not via colt teams. Just have big clubs stop snatching all the best players before their baws drap fully.

If you break it down further, by country, you see this entirely based on where players come from. Germany and Spain have B teams so the majority of their players have spent some time in the B teams. Belgium and Brazil have a big drop in quality down the leagues with no B teams so players from there get flung straight into the first team. England and Italy love giving their players game via loan deals so a lot of players from there get games in the lower leagues on loan.

Honestly. I don't think it makes a blind bit of difference for the most part but would say players coming through at lower league teams is possibly preferable to being loaned down to them.

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53 minutes ago, G_H said:

I see that Gordon Smith is the source of the article.  Is having zero credibility a pre-requisite before the Daily Record interviews someone?

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1 hour ago, stuartcraig said:

I see that Gordon Smith is the source of the article.  Is having zero credibility a pre-requisite before the Daily Record interviews someone?

They've been pulling out every contact on their list trying to get any kind of positive sentiment for the colt teams idea over the past few days, seems they have gotten as far as S so far on their contacts list, so it will go for another couple of days I suppose.

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21 minutes ago, G_H said:

They've been pulling out every contact on their list trying to get any kind of positive sentiment for the colt teams idea over the past few days, seems they have gotten as far as S so far on their contacts list, so it will go for another couple of days I suppose.

At some point they'll get their way.  That's the way life works for the rich and powerful.  They can afford to wait until a weakness they can exploit presents itself.

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On 09/06/2020 at 17:02, The Moonster said:

There has been a significant fall in attendances at just about every game involving colt teams. You are utterly deluded if you think this wouldn't affect the game. Utter pish that most fans aren't interested in who they play.

Would it be the same if the games were League games with promotion/relegation on the line? 

 

One of the things that's not on Wikipedia is when Scotland went Full Reserves with the old third division, circa 1949.  Two divisions with teams like Raith B playing half-a-dozen clubs that were seemingly being driven into extinction by the arrangement (Montrose, Brechin &c), and it did for Edinburgh City and Leith Athletic.  Promotion was allowed for non-B teams, but only Brechin made it, because the reserve sides were so strong.  But eventually it was abandoned and the existing senior teams were re-integrated.

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Would it be the same if the games were League games with promotion/relegation on the line? 
 
One of the things that's not on Wikipedia is when Scotland went Full Reserves with the old third division, circa 1949.  Two divisions with teams like Raith B playing half-a-dozen clubs that were seemingly being driven into extinction by the arrangement (Montrose, Brechin &c), and it did for Edinburgh City and Leith Athletic.  Promotion was allowed for non-B teams, but only Brechin made it, because the reserve sides were so strong.  But eventually it was abandoned and the existing senior teams were re-integrated.
Yes, nobody is interested in watching their team play a bunch of kids.

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1 hour ago, bluearmyfaction said:

Would it be the same if the games were League games with promotion/relegation on the line? 

Promotion/relegation isn't on the line for the colts. Fans want to watch competition, colt teams don't provide that.

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8 minutes ago, The Moonster said:

Promotion/relegation isn't on the line for the colts. Fans want to watch competition, colt teams don't provide that.

For me the issue is the fact that some Premiership clubs, not content with the way that successive changes have increased their influence / privilege, want to go a step further.  

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From the BBC Football website:-

Scottish clubs have been asked if they would be in favour of a 14-10-10-10 league set-up after plans by Hearts and Rangers failed to get enough support.

When Hearts were relegated after the Premiership was curtailed, owner Ann Budge proposed the current 12-10-10-10 set-up be changed to three leagues of 14 teams for next season.

Rangers suggested they and Celtic field 'B' teams in the bottom tier of a 14-14-18 format, but an expanded top flight is now the only option after clubs gave their views to the SPFL.

If implemented, Hearts, Partick Thistle and Stranraer would be spared relegation and Kelty Hearts and Brora Rangers - the champions of the Lowland and Highland League respectively - would be admitted to League Two.

Inverness Caledonian Thistle, who finished second in the Championship, would join the top flight and Falkirk would replace them in the second tier with Edinburgh City then moving up to League One.

All 42 clubs have been asked to inform the SPFL by 10:00 BST on Monday if they would support the change, which is expected to be permanent.

If there is enough consensus then a formal vote would have to take place at an extraordinary general meeting.

At that stage, 17 of the 22 clubs in the Premiership and Championship would need to vote in favour for the plans to pass, and 32 from all four divisions combined.

The Premiership season is due to start on the 1 August with clubs free to return to training from Thursday.

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29 minutes ago, WALMOT said:

From the BBC Football website:-

Scottish clubs have been asked if they would be in favour of a 14-10-10-10 league set-up after plans by Hearts and Rangers failed to get enough support.

When Hearts were relegated after the Premiership was curtailed, owner Ann Budge proposed the current 12-10-10-10 set-up be changed to three leagues of 14 teams for next season.

Rangers suggested they and Celtic field 'B' teams in the bottom tier of a 14-14-18 format, but an expanded top flight is now the only option after clubs gave their views to the SPFL.

If implemented, Hearts, Partick Thistle and Stranraer would be spared relegation and Kelty Hearts and Brora Rangers - the champions of the Lowland and Highland League respectively - would be admitted to League Two.

Inverness Caledonian Thistle, who finished second in the Championship, would join the top flight and Falkirk would replace them in the second tier with Edinburgh City then moving up to League One.

All 42 clubs have been asked to inform the SPFL by 10:00 BST on Monday if they would support the change, which is expected to be permanent.

If there is enough consensus then a formal vote would have to take place at an extraordinary general meeting.

At that stage, 17 of the 22 clubs in the Premiership and Championship would need to vote in favour for the plans to pass, and 32 from all four divisions combined.

The Premiership season is due to start on the 1 August with clubs free to return to training from Thursday.

Any suggestions how this benefits Scottish football in general?

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2 hours ago, The Moonster said:

Promotion/relegation isn't on the line for the colts. Fans want to watch competition, colt teams don't provide that.

It sounds like they could get into the middle division.  And if they fill the top two spaces in that, would they go down to 3rd and below for promotion and playoff?

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8 hours ago, bluearmyfaction said:

It sounds like they could get into the middle division.  And if they fill the top two spaces in that, would they go down to 3rd and below for promotion and playoff?

I've no idea what the middle division is but it's irrelevant, nobody wants colts and debating their validity disgusts me.

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10 hours ago, stuartcraig said:

For me the issue is the fact that some Premiership clubs, not content with the way that successive changes have increased their influence / privilege, want to go a step further.  

Disgustingly, St Johnstone are one of those.

Steve Brown wants a fifth division added, filled with Premiership Colt/B sides, and the HL/LL champions, with only promotion available to Colts from that level.

It makes absolutely zero sense, and is utterly fucking stupid, and I'm frankly embarrassed hes part of the club I support, no matter what good things hes done in the past.

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