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Geopolitics in the 2020s.


dorlomin

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3 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Looked like it was to deter Nazarbayev from mounting a coup, if needs must.. And it was before Russia showed how it's prepared to treat another neighbour.

Lol wut

The Kazakh leadership used their sovereign right to request assistance from their security partners - above all. Russia - to put down an entirely domestic uprising last year. It was the exact opposite of a Hungary 1956 scenario. You simply do not do that if you're concerned about a hostile takeover of your state by the Kremlin. 

Russians are responsible for propping up the same regime that China has now pledged to defend: clearly the sign of an imminent Russo-Chinese rift then!

The only correct point is that China's hand is immeasurably strengthened compared to Russia because of the war. But that doesn't actually mean conflict between those two powers because they can always find more than enough common ground in opposing Lance's home country and its latest, dotard leader. And China's hand has also been immeasurably strengthened in comparison to western Europe by the events of the past 12 months. 

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1 minute ago, virginton said:

The Kazakh leadership used their sovereign right to request assistance from their security partners - above all. Russia - to put down an entirely domestic uprising last year. It was the exact opposite of a Hungary 1956 scenario. You simply do not do that if you're concerned about a hostile takeover of your state by the Kremlin. 

I think it was touch and go whether Putin would his back his old pal Nazarbayev or new boy Tokayev, he probably thought he had enough going on with invading Ukraine the next month to give Nazarbayev and the Kazakh military a no means no telt. Given their display of military might in Ukraine I doubt Russia has that quaking in the shoes because of a raised eyebrow power anymore. And China are offering an awful lot more investment than Russia could.

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On 13/09/2022 at 09:38, ICTChris said:

More reports that there is a ceasefire agreed but also that attacks on Armenia continue.

Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan has said that 49 Armenian soldiers have been killed.  There are no figures for Azeri casualties but there are reports that they have taken losses also.

Has Armenia not been invaded though?

 

 

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Kyrgyzstan TB2s being used in the fighting.

There have been dozens, maybe 100, soldiers killed on the Kyrgyzstan side. Over 100,000 people have been displaced by the fighting. I can’t really work out why this has started now, the border is highly disputed and there has been fighting before. Unsure what each sides goals are - it appears the Tajikistani side attacked first and have occupied some Kyrgyz territory but not confirmed if they want to seize it.

Both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are members of the CSTO, an organisation whose days are surely numbered.

In Armenia the ceasefire appears to hold. Some Armenian bodies have been returned, with at least one more instance of a female Armenian soldier being mutilated by Azeri troops.  US Speaker Nancy Pelosi is in the country now with a US delegation, the most senior US official to ever visit the country. 

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34 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:
1 hour ago, jagfox said:
 
 

Of course the world ignores those conflicts compared to Russia-Ukraine. There are obvious and fair reasons for that to be the case.

I found it quite an interesting thread with how it outlines who Russia really supports and their lack of support for Armenia part of the CSTO is an eye opener for me at least.

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I found it quite an interesting thread with how it outlines who Russia really supports and their lack of support for Armenia part of the CSTO is an eye opener for me at least.
Aye, much of the actual thread is interesting enough, just the somewhat attention seeking opening post irked me. Tough day at work for me though, perhaps I should cut him some slack.
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36 minutes ago, jagfox said:

 

Sounds like bollocks, maybe started by this tweet, later recanted, by a Falun Gong exile in the US.

A few high up security officials have been sentenced to life imprisonment and suspended death sentences for corruption and conspiracy, maybe the rumours came out of that.

China Security Official Gets Life Imprisonment as Xi Crushes ‘Political Clique’

Edited by welshbairn
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