Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[ICTChris]

2 minutes ago, coprolite said:

Do you think Azerbaijan are acting on their own initiative or is there a chance this is with US/NATO support?

No chance of US or NATO support. I think even Turkey have been relatively cool on this offensive.

[DiegoDiego]

Do you think Azerbaijan are acting on their own initiative or is there a chance this is with US/NATO support?

US support? Not a chance they'd risk upsetting the Kardashians or Lando Calrissian.

[ICTChris]

Armenia has confirmed they have requested military assistance from the CSTO. The CSTO is a Russian lead group of former Soviet states - Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are the members. Under Article 4 a member can request defence assistance when their territorial integrity is at risk.

Not sure what we can expect from that. Reports as well that Azerbijan has requested a ceasefire.

[welshbairn]

I could see Iran getting involved in a clandestine way at least if this really kicks off. Despite Azerbaijan being 85% Shia, which could make it natural allies of Iran, it's much closer to Sunni Turkey and has strong ties to Israel. Iran has much better relations with Christian Armenia. They'd love to see the Government replaced by friendlier regime but I doubt a religious Shia movement would get much backing in predominantly secular Azerbaijan.

[Fullerene]

26 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I could see Iran getting involved in a clandestine way at least if this really kicks off. Despite Azerbaijan being 85% Shia, which could make it natural allies of Iran, it's much closer to Sunni Turkey and has strong ties to Israel. Iran has much better relations with Christian Armenia. They'd love to see the Government replaced by friendlier regime but I doubt a religious Shia movement would get much backing in predominantly secular Azerbaijan.

The Iran people are 25% Azeri.  This leads to a natural tension between Iran and Azerbaijan.

[ICTChris]

No idea if this is accurate or not. Iran did build up forces on the Azeri border last year.

[DiegoDiego]

I think we're probably going to see a lot more of this sort of thing over the next couple of years now that folk realise the protection Russia was giving various states no longer/never really exists. A lot of frozen conflicts likely to thaw.

[welshbairn]

Kazakhstan and others will likely align themselves closer to China with pressure from Russia easier to discount. Russia's space industry will struggle to survive if sanctions continue, they were already losing launch contracts to the likes of much cheaper SpaceX and I'm unsure if China is able or willing to supply the parts they were reliant on Western suppliers for, so their launch sites in Kazakhstan may not be an issue in the medium to long term. It's astonishing that a fairly paranoid Putin never saw the strategic necessity of developing a domestic microelectronics industry for its defence and space capabilities, and instead relied on flogging raw materials and fuels to go shopping in the West.

Edited September 15, 2022 by welshbairn

[ICTChris]

Nancy Pelosi is to visit Armenia next week.

 

[ICTChris]

1 hour ago, DiegoDiego said:

I think we're probably going to see a lot more of this sort of thing over the next couple of years now that folk realise the protection Russia was giving various states no longer/never really exists. A lot of frozen conflicts likely to thaw.
 

I think it did exist but Russia has been overtaken. In the case of the South Caucasus in the 1990s Turkey had a far more cautious attitude towards the region and was much more stand offish in its dealings with Azerbijan. Coming out of the Soviet Union the Azeri political class were far more entwined with Russia and that increased Moscow’s influence over them. In the last 10-15 years though Erdogan has made projecting Turkeys power abroad a cornerstone of his policy with Turkish forces intervening directly in Iraq and Syria and taking a far more hands on role supporting Azerbaijan. The Azeris also used the money and influence from their oil and gas industry to purchase modern Weapons.
 

In 2016 there were clashes between Azeri and Armenian forces in Northern Karabakh with several days of fierce and brutal fighting. The Azeris managed to take a single hilltop but it’s likely they lost hundreds of men, including a high ranking officer. The reality of this seems to have dawned on Azerbijan that they could never win a war like this, so they began to use their alliance with Turkey to secure better training and intelligence support. They used their money and influence to buy Israeli technology as well. This was all combined with devastating affect in the 2020 war, where they managed to launch a surprise attack which basically secured victory in the first few days of the war. There was a Russian defence industry report into the war which estimated that in the first hour of fighting the Armenian forces in Ngorno-Karabakh lost around 50% of their artillery. That’s in a single hour, completely devastating and made holding back the Azeri advance impossible, although the Armenian army managed to inflict significant losses while taking heavy casualties themselves.

Another major factor was the Armenian lack of preparation both politically and militarily. They hadn’t adjusted to drones, they hadn’t made any real political moves towards peace, the leadership of the country just assumed that the conflict was over and they’d done it. In terms of rearmament the big spending was the purchase of a fleet of Russian fighter bombers which proved useless when the war began, they weren’t used at all due to lack of ammo and training. It will now be extremely hard to adjust to the new reality for Armenia as it’s clear they no longer hold the ability to deter Azeri force, although there are initial reports suggesting the Armenian Armed forces did a lot better in the current fighting than many expected. They are still in a very weak position though and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them try and leverage influence with Iran to curtail Azerbijan. As mentioned earlier Iran is close to Armenia and has no live for Aliyev and his regime. There has been some sabre rattling between Tehran and Baku in the past year or so but I think the idea of Iranian forces deploying in Armenia, suggested in the analysts tweet above is far fetched.

[Antlion]

Any word on when Dame Helen Mirren will be playing Charlie in the inevitable TV drama of his accession?

[welshbairn]

16 hours ago, DiegoDiego said:

I think we're probably going to see a lot more of this sort of thing over the next couple of years now that folk realise the protection Russia was giving various states no longer/never really exists. A lot of frozen conflicts likely to thaw.
 

Quote

Kyrgyzstan’s border guard service has said that Tajik forces once again opened fire on several of its outposts, an escalation of tension between the Russian allies after a brief confrontation earlier this week, Reuters reports.

Kyrgyz border guards were returning fire as clashes took place along the whole length of the border, the service said, adding that Tajik forces were using tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and mortars.

In turn, Tajikistan accused Kyrgyz forces of shelling one of its outposts and seven villages with “heavy weaponry”. A civilian was killed and three injured, authorities in the Tajik city of Isfara said.

The governors of Kyrgyz and Tajik provinces adjacent to the border were set to meet at a border crossing point and try to defuse the situation, Kyrgyz border guards set.

Clashes over the poorly demarcated border between the two former Soviet republics are frequent, but usually de-escalate quickly, although last year they almost led to an all-out war.

Both host Russian military bases and have close ties with Moscow, which urged a cession of hostilities this week.

 

[welshbairn]

Quote

        Russia and China have potentially conflicting interests in central Asia, where some former Soviet republics have been unnerved by Putin’s adventurism in Ukraine and are developing closer economic ties with China.

Xi first travelled on Wednesday to Kazakhstan, his first visit to a foreign country since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in January 2020. Without mentioning Russia specifically, he told his Kazakh counterpart, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, that China would “resolutely support [Kazakhstan’s] independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity . . . and strongly oppose interference by any forces in the domestic affairs of your country”.

“The Ukraine war has turned Kazakhstan from Russia,” said Lance Gore, a China politics expert at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute. “If Putin can do that to Ukraine, he can do that to Kazakhstan. That’s a big wedge between Kazakhstan and Russia that will enhance China’s position in central Asia.”
 

https://www.ft.com/content/d932adab-9b96-4142-b741-5a53a1d797c1

Edited September 16, 2022 by welshbairn

[ICTChris]

The US seems to be diplomatically backing Armenia in the latest dispute.  Whether that has any impact is an open question.

Footage from the latest fighting has included Azeri soldiers mutilating the body of a female Armenian soldier, cutting off her fingers and forcing them into her mouth.  This has been widely shared - all the Azeri soldiers in the footage are laughing.  In every conflict between the countries in recent years Azeri troops have commited crimes like this - beheadings of prisoners and mutilation of corpses are particularly prevelant.

The Armenians are far from innocent in this conflict (Khojaly massacre the most egregious example) but in all the recent conflicts Azeri hatred has lead to these outcome.

Edited September 16, 2022 by ICTChris

[ICTChris]

4 hours ago, welshbairn said:

 

 

 

 

[DiegoDiego]

In every conflict between the countries in recent years Azeri troops have commited crimes like this

Not just in recent years, they cut the tongue out of the Bishop of Shushi a hundred years ago.

[welshbairn]

Eritrea have ordered all reservists between 18 and 55 to report to their HQs immediately, which could mean bad news for the Tigrayans.

[Detournement]

On 14/09/2022 at 13:19, ICTChris said:

No chance of US or NATO support. I think even Turkey have been relatively cool on this offensive.

Aye right. 

It's all about getting gas from Azerbaijan to Turkey. 

When you don't hear a peep from all the professional foreign policy ghouls despite the horrific video then you know it's got Yankee blessing. 

[vikingTON]

8 hours ago, welshbairn said:

https://www.ft.com/content/d932adab-9b96-4142-b741-5a53a1d797c1

A truly laughable analysis considering that the Kazakh leadership just recently called in Russian troops to crush its domestic opposition. So Russia (despite some flailing) and China are fundamentally on the same page. 

Xi and Putin are not the totalitarian hivemind of some Westerners' nightmares, but 'Lance' and the gang are just engaging in a different brand of fantasism. 

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

A truly laughable analysis considering that the Kazakh leadership just recently called in Russian troops to crush its domestic opposition

Looked like it was to deter Nazarbayev from mounting a coup, if needs must.. And it was before Russia showed how it's prepared to treat another neighbour.

Edited September 16, 2022 by welshbairn