Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[Salt n Vinegar]

Got it. How to turf the Tories (Gories?) out of office for years. 

Point out that the Tories' lack of control over the effects of energy prices will result in school closures (as schools aren't getting any extra loot to pay their bills) and to cap it all, it is reported that up to 50% OF PUBS WILL SHUT as their energy costs make business unworkable. 

Pensioners' problems? Well, errr.. that's life.

School closures, well, not great, maybe something should be done...

WHAT? THE PUBS ARE SHUTTING? Pitchforks and burning torches time! 

(edit... Damn, probably the wrong thread....) 

Edited August 30, 2022 by Salt n Vinegar

[Detournement]

 

Lol 

The Poles are obviously pissed at all the money piling into Kiev.

 

[welshbairn]

Probably nothing.

 

[ICTChris]

there’s been a major diplomatic incident due to a cyber attack on Albania. The Albanian government has blamed Iran and cut off diplomatic relations with Iran.

Saw this blog about the attack 

https://grugq.substack.com/p/albanian-cyber-war

[vikingTON]

Would never have happened under Enver Hoxha's watch. 

[Booker-T]

As Russian actions in Zaporizhzhia are a direct threat to Poland, Romania and Turkey, why aren’t NATO treating this an article 5 trigger? 

[welshbairn]

4 hours ago, Booker-T said:

As Russian actions in Zaporizhzhia are a direct threat to Poland, Romania and Turkey, why aren’t NATO treating this an article 5 trigger? 

They want to avoid a nuclear war probably.

[Booker-T]

20 hours ago, welshbairn said:

They want to avoid a nuclear war probably.

That power plant and its multiple reactors explode is a nuclear goodbye to several NATO states

[welshbairn]

8 hours ago, Booker-T said:

That power plant and its multiple reactors explode is a nuclear goodbye to several NATO states

A meltdown of a nuclear reactor is nothing compared to an exchange of nuclear missiles. The deaths at Chernobyl were nearly all confined to the fire fighters and workers trying to contain it, about 30. The long term effects were much milder than feared. The nuclear weapons available to both sides are many times more destructive than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. To create a nuclear chain reaction you need highly enriched bomb grade lumps of uranium or plutonium squashed together, it would be impossible for that to happen to a nuclear reactor. They've shut down all the reactors anyway, so a meltdown and major leaks of radioactive dust is less likely to happen. 

[ICTChris]

Azerbijan is currently attacking Armenia along the border. This is different to the clashes on Karabakh, it is taking place in the internationally recognised borders. It’s a major escalation. Armenia’s main, really their only, ally is Russia and clearly they aren’t in a position to do anything  about Azerbijan.

The question is why Azerbijan are doing this - it’s likely to pressure Armenia to concede more in Karabakh, there are ongoing discussions about building new roads to link various parts of Azerbijan. 

The question is what Armenia are able to do about it. Given the losses taken in Karabakh, are they able to fight back at all?

[ICTChris]

More reports that there is a ceasefire agreed but also that attacks on Armenia continue.

Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan has said that 49 Armenian soldiers have been killed.  There are no figures for Azeri casualties but there are reports that they have taken losses also.

[ICTChris]

This thread gives a good rundown of the motivations for Azeri attacks.

 

[welshbairn]

The Russian media like Tass and Isvestia are full of this, it's taken the Ukrainian clusterfuck off the front page. 

[TxRover]

53 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The Russian media like Tass and Isvestia are full of this, it's taken the Ukrainian clusterfuck off the front page. 

Worth asking if the Russians somehow engineered this for exactly this purposeL

[Booker-T]

On 11/09/2022 at 23:26, welshbairn said:

A meltdown of a nuclear reactor is nothing compared to an exchange of nuclear missiles. The deaths at Chernobyl were nearly all confined to the fire fighters and workers trying to contain it, about 30. The long term effects were much milder than feared. The nuclear weapons available to both sides are many times more destructive than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. To create a nuclear chain reaction you need highly enriched bomb grade lumps of uranium or plutonium squashed together, it would be impossible for that to happen to a nuclear reactor. They've shut down all the reactors anyway, so a meltdown and major leaks of radioactive dust is less likely to happen. 

This will make Chernobyl look like nothing. Russia’s presence in the area should be treated as a nuclear attack on Poland, Romania and Turkey. 

[welshbairn]

29 minutes ago, Booker-T said:

This will make Chernobyl look like nothing. Russia’s presence in the area should be treated as a nuclear attack on Poland, Romania and Turkey. 

You do realise that if that happened we'd probably all be dead after a week or so?

[ICTChris]

After a lull in the fighting overnight it seems that the shelling of Armenia has continued.  Azerbijan has said they have lost 50 troops, Armenia has confirmed 49 killed.  In all liklehood the death toll will be much higher so it's the most serious clash since the full scale war in 2020.  There have been videos of Armenians taken prisoner and of Azeri troops in a captured Armenian Army base.  There are videos of TB2 strikes on Armenian positions, who astonishingly appear to be unprepared for drone threats after the 2020 war.

One thing that's important to note, and that has been missed by some of the coverage, is that this is not taking place in the disputed regions of Ngorno-Karabakh, it's taking place within Armenia itself, within internationally recognised borders.  A number of Azeri politicians have called for the establishment of a buffer zone between Armenia and Azeribijan, it could be that this is what this fighting is about, more likely is that the Azeris are looking to pressure Armenia in the negotiation process post 2020.

There's a lot of talk about Russia and their influence or lack of on this.  I don't think it's outlandish to say that the war in Ukraine has benefitted Azerbijan in this situation - Russia can't reinforce their peacekeeping mission and have had to withdraw professioal soldiers from their bases in Armenia to send to Ukraine.  However, it's not as simple as Russia backing Armenia - Russia has sold billions of dollars worth of weapons to Azerbijan and signed a formal alliance with the Azeris back in February, just after they invaded Ukraine.  It's in Russia's interests for the conflict to 'freeze' in the post-Soviet style but they probably can't do that now.  Whether they were in alliance with Russia or not Armenia will always be in a precarious position, sandwiched between hostile countries.  Pre-2020 the Armenians were confident they had the military advantage but the circumstances moved against this and they were defeated.  

[welshbairn]

Don't know how reliable this source, claims to be Russian.

[coprolite]

4 hours ago, ICTChris said:

After a lull in the fighting overnight it seems that the shelling of Armenia has continued.  Azerbijan has said they have lost 50 troops, Armenia has confirmed 49 killed.  In all liklehood the death toll will be much higher so it's the most serious clash since the full scale war in 2020.  There have been videos of Armenians taken prisoner and of Azeri troops in a captured Armenian Army base.  There are videos of TB2 strikes on Armenian positions, who astonishingly appear to be unprepared for drone threats after the 2020 war.

One thing that's important to note, and that has been missed by some of the coverage, is that this is not taking place in the disputed regions of Ngorno-Karabakh, it's taking place within Armenia itself, within internationally recognised borders.  A number of Azeri politicians have called for the establishment of a buffer zone between Armenia and Azeribijan, it could be that this is what this fighting is about, more likely is that the Azeris are looking to pressure Armenia in the negotiation process post 2020.

There's a lot of talk about Russia and their influence or lack of on this.  I don't think it's outlandish to say that the war in Ukraine has benefitted Azerbijan in this situation - Russia can't reinforce their peacekeeping mission and have had to withdraw professioal soldiers from their bases in Armenia to send to Ukraine.  However, it's not as simple as Russia backing Armenia - Russia has sold billions of dollars worth of weapons to Azerbijan and signed a formal alliance with the Azeris back in February, just after they invaded Ukraine.  It's in Russia's interests for the conflict to 'freeze' in the post-Soviet style but they probably can't do that now.  Whether they were in alliance with Russia or not Armenia will always be in a precarious position, sandwiched between hostile countries.  Pre-2020 the Armenians were confident they had the military advantage but the circumstances moved against this and they were defeated.  

Do you think Azerbaijan are acting on their own initiative or is there a chance this is with US/NATO support?

[ICTChris]

War Gonzo is a Russian war propagandist. He reported on the 2020 war though so likely has contacts in the area.

There are photographs of a Russian border or military post having been hit with artillery. Armenia effectively outsources its border controls to Russia, a legacy of the Soviet era when the Armenia-Turkey border was the only direct USSR-NATO border and was heavily militarised.

Its hard to confirm. There are also reports of Russian border guards abandoning their posts and withdrawing.