Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[Detournement]

40 minutes ago, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

You're wasting your time, none of these things are real. 

If it was real China would be a crazy dystopia. It obviously isn't. 

When I was in Asia last year I was shocked by the anti Chinese racism of white European tourists, travellers and residents I spoke to. Australians as well but that was less shocking. JTS98 seems to have went down the rabbit hole. 

Edited July 23, 2020 by Detournement

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

5 minutes ago, Detournement said:

If it was real China would be a crazy dystopia. It obviously isn't. 

When I was in Asia last year I was shocked by the anti Chinese racism of white European tourists, travellers and residents I spoke to. Australians as well but that was less shocking. JTS98 seems to have went down the rabbit hole. 

Saying a government is authoritarian isn't racism mate

[Detournement]

I didn't say it was. But the hysteria of all of his posts about China certainly isn't rational. As I said it reminds me of westerners I met in SE Asia who were basically pissed off that wealthy Chinese and Koreans were eroding their privileged position.

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

I didn't say it was. But the hysteria of all of his posts about China certainly isn't rational. As I said it reminds me of westerners I met in SE Asia who were basically pissed off that wealthy Chinese and Koreans were eroding their privileged position.

What specifically of all the many examples he gave do you believe is false? You ignored that when you decided it was better to just definitely not say he was a racist, just that he reminds you of racists. You're still not answering anyone's questions or points btw.

[Merkie84]

I lived in Beijing for 3 years. 
 

Returning to Europe was like going back 5 years in time. 
 

The 21st century will be China’s in the same way the 20th was America’s.

 

 

[Detournement]

4 minutes ago, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

What specifically of all the many examples he gave do you believe is false? You ignored that when you decided it was better to just definitely not say he was a racist, just that he reminds you of racists. You're still not answering anyone's questions or points btw.

It's complete hyperbole. If the situation in China was as he claims the millions of Chinese citizens who live, study or travel abroad would be surely be complaining about it and we would hear about asylum claims and escape attempts. I would also expect to hear about it from Western people who live and work in China. 

Some parts of the rant are true about communication being monitored but that's the same everywhere and other parts are just Epoch Times nonsense like praying being banned and spies being billeted in family homes. 

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

What specifically of all the many examples he gave do you believe is false? You ignored that when you decided it was better to just definitely not say he was a racist, just that he reminds you of racists. You're still not answering anyone's questions or points btw.

This was a bit hysterical tbh, as is the article linked below. Chinese TV switched a football game on at 4.15 am to a secondary channel, and I believe an hour later on their main sports channel, the world goes mad. Meanwhile their main trading markets are being taken away one by one by the clown in Washington and his wee puppet in London.

10 hours ago, JTS98 said:

The Party in China has now, in its infinite wisdom, pulled Premier League football.

Not the first time they've pulled such a stunt. Restricting your population's access to popular sport events is definitely a good PR move and definitely a sign of a government in tune with its people and showing good decision making.

The West should be rejoicing and thanking its lucky stars that the main geopolitical rival of the age is run by complete clowns.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/china-state-tv-blacks-out-english-soccer-amid-spat-with-u-k

https://theprint.in/world/china-drags-football-into-spat-with-uk-state-tv-blacks-out-premier-league-matches/466852/

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

Just now, welshbairn said:

This was a bit hysterical tbh, as is the article linked below. Chinese TV switched a football game on at 4.15 am to a secondary channel, and I believe an hour later on their main sports channel, the world goes mad. Meanwhile their main trading markets are being taken away one by one by the clown in Washington and his wee puppet in London.

https://theprint.in/world/china-drags-football-into-spat-with-uk-state-tv-blacks-out-premier-league-matches/466852/

Aye, most of that was a fair bit over the top, I just wanted to see him actually engage with something. I do think overreacting to everything the CCP does and presenting it as a uniformly dystopian society (it isn't) is really counterproductive. It makes it a lot easier for folk who like to close their eyes to pretend that there's nothing to see here in Xinjiang (there is). 

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

1 hour ago, MixuFruit said:

But it's the worst famine ever recorded anywhere by miles and it happened the same year they found the time to invade Tibet.

Honestly there's not a fag paper between you and those weird Americans who can't condemn Nazism without also mentioning Communism on some issues.

Actually statistically the Irish Potato Famine was the most devastating in human history, killing a quarter of the population of Ireland.

[NotThePars]

In fairness asking a Brit if he wants to move to a country which airbrushes it's historical record is really funny

Edited July 23, 2020 by NotThePars

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

3 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

That isn't how statistics work. Did we not have a wee chat about this kind of thing last week? 

Yes it is 

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

13 minutes ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

Actually statistically the Irish Potato Famine was the most devastating in human history, killing a quarter of the population of Ireland.

No it didn't, combining the death toll and number who emigrated gives a total of around 25%, with a largely equal number between the two. Also, what @MixuFruit said. 

Obviously, there was subsequent emigration on the same scale that, it could pretty easily be argued, was a result of the famine. 

Edited July 23, 2020 by Genuine Hibs Fan

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

9 minutes ago, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

No it didn't, combining the death toll and number who emigrated gives a total of around 25%, with a largely equal number between the two. Also, what @MixuFruit said. 

Obviously, there was subsequent emigration on the same scale that, it could pretty easily be argued, was a result of the famine. 

1st line - wind, 2nd line - pish

[O'Kelly Isley III]

If it was real China would be a crazy dystopia. It obviously isn't. 
When I was in Asia last year I was shocked by the anti Chinese racism of white European tourists, travellers and residents I spoke to. Australians as well but that was less shocking. JTS98 seems to have went down the rabbit hole. 

Funny that, you always strike me as someone who is unshockable due to your doctrinaire approach on most things. FWIW, I do business with the Chinese and have visited the country; most folk I meet are pretty damned ordinary by normal standards but you are never in any doubt that you are in an authoritarian society. Lifting people out of poverty isn't as grand as it sounds if it is in the confines of a dystopian society.

Sent from my MotoG3 using Pie and Bovril mobile app

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

16 minutes ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

1st line - wind, 2nd line - pish

I mean it's a pretty established fact. About 1 million people died as a result of the famine, and about 1 million more emigrated more or less as refugees. The population prior to this was around 8 million. Those are pretty basic numbers to convert into percentages. I'd love you to show me where you read that 25% of the population died. Obviously it was horrific, but it's ok to admit you got the numbers wrong

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

14 minutes ago, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

I mean it's a pretty established fact. About 1 million people died as a result of the famine, and about 1 million more emigrated more or less as refugees. The population prior to this was around 8 million. Those are pretty basic numbers to convert into percentages. I'd love you to show me where you read that 25% of the population died. Obviously it was horrific, but it's ok to admit you got the numbers wrong

So why don't you then

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

1 minute ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

So why don't you then

Kill 25% of the population of Ireland? Probably a bit beyond my scrapping abilities pal. 

Let's try it again. How do you express 1/8 as a percentage?

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

3 minutes ago, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

Kill 25% of the population of Ireland? Probably a bit beyond my scrapping abilities pal. 

Let's try it again. How do you express 1/8 as a percentage?

Hunners

[dorlomin]

https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_pcap_cd&idim=country:JPN:CHN:KOR&hl=en&dl=en

 

Taiwan, Japan and RoK did the whole "lifting out of poverty" decades earlier and far more effectively. 

And while atrocities are not some kind of competitive event, the Great Famine of 1315-1317 may have killed as many as 33% of the population of Western Europe. This had an impact on the Scottish Wars of Independence affecting the Bruce's campains in Ireland for example (led by one of his brothers but I am not wasting my time digging out the details) . The great famine in the Baltics in the 1690s may also have killed a similar amount. Famines in the early medieval or ancient world may have been more devastating. 

Chinese racism was a big issue in Africa in April May. 

https://www.france24.com/en/20200413-african-ambassadors-write-letter-of-complaint-to-china-over-discrimination

Nothing to do with "Black Lives Matter".  This is an issue that affected geopolitics, albeit in a minor way. It has seriously hurt Chinas standing in parts of Africa, but they may not have much room to complain. 

The more interesting stories are the forced closing of the consulate in Houston, the alleged burning of documents (perhaps one time encryption pads) and an alleged industrial spy ending up in the San Francisco consulate. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53510260

Out side of that Russia has had a go at an anti satellite weapon. 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53518238

This launched from a conventional launch vehicle that will cost $10 million and take months to prepare.

In the 80s the US tested an antisatellite weapon launched from an F 15. That means it could be deployed in hours against a satellite.

In the late 2000s they shot down a low orbiting satellite from a Ticonderoga class warship using the Standard 3 anti aircraft missile.

US company SpaceX is launching a constellation of 10 000s of satellites.

This technology from Russia does not really appear to be all that advanced or much of a threat to many satellite systems given they have active collision avoidance. Its interesting but I would not get too worked up about it compared to what some others could potentially do.

Russia is also in a lot of long term deep water. Oil is at $40 and its economy has been in deep recession before this. 

https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:RUS:DEU:ITA&hl=en&dl=en

Many countries are planning on phasing out ICEs (internal combustion engines) in the coming years. So the whole petro economy model is going to be in for a rough ride. Currently a large number are having major budget short falls. This will seriously crimp Irans expansionist aspirations. They had serious problems with major anti government demonstrations before all this kicked off now less money to buy of the populace and the true believers in the revolution. Also in Lebanon there have been major demonstrations that have targeted the whole regime including Iran's proxies, Hezb'allah. The only regional oil power with the depth to ride this out is everyones favourite 7th century AD LARPers, Saudi. 

A lot is going to happen in the next 12 months. Covid is going to have a much bigger impact than people realise. 

Hell I have not mentioned Turkey, its economic crisis and the problems that will cause Italy. 

 

Edited July 23, 2020 by dorlomin
A low IQ buffoon had a moment of relevance.

[welshbairn]

My first critique of this post is the usage of ICU and then explaining that it's an acronym for internal combustion engine, which it isn't, and then not using the acronym again, which made it redundant. I don't condemn the probable typo, but the acronym was a total waste of digital ink, and I suspect a ruse to make you sound ITK (in the know).