Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[LongTimeLurker]

On 28/07/2021 at 21:47, ICTChris said:

When I was in holiday in Croatia a few years ago there was what I presume was a memorial to WW2 just up the hill from our villa.  It was completely rundown and had been vandalised with 'U' graffiti, which I understand is the symbol for the Ustase.

That sort of thing happened right across Croatia and Croatian areas in Bosnia in the early 1990s. Croatian politics is still basically split down the middle between ethnic nationalists with overt Ustase sympathies very much on display on the wilder fringes vs moderate people who can be viewed as the legacy of the Partizan side in WWII.

Croatia took a more violent swing towards the former camp than it needed to initially because Tito had fallen out with a large portion of active Croatian communists in the late 60s and early 70s and purged them en masse in a process comparable to the aftermath of the Prague spring. That meant a lot of moderate liberal reformers voted for no hope third parties rather than the former communists in the first free elections in 1990 in a FPTP type format allowing the ethnic nationalists in on a minority of the vote.

After that competing ethnic nationalisms fed off each other, the Knin Serbs had their log revolution and...

Edited August 1, 2021 by LongTimeLurker

[ICTChris]

25 years ago today, the Battle of Grozny took place part of the first Chechen war.  The war had begun in 1994 when Russian troops intervened in the breakaway Caucausian republic of Chechnya.  Chechnya had declared independence in 1991 but the Russian government had essentially taken an arms length approach in dealing with the rebellious Chechens, until increasing tension broke into open conflict and the Russians attacked in December 1994.  Initial expectations were for a swift victory but Russian forces ended up taking heavy casualties and suffering demoralising losses.  After retaking the capital Grozny in 1995 Russian forces faced a guerrila war with highly mobile effective Chechen units.

On the 6th of August 1996 however, 1500 Chechen fighters infiltrated the city and launched a co-ordinated attack on the occupying Russian troops, who numbered 12,000.  Rather than try to hold the city outright, the rebels isolated the RUssian outposts and waited them out, with many pockets surrendering over the next few days.  Russian forces threatened to launch ballistic missiles and begin an aerial bombardment but the political leadership intervened to stop this and a peace treaty between the Checehns and Russia was signed, with Chechnya effectively being given independence.

It's a bit obscure but I think the First Chechen War is one of the pivotal events in modern European history.  It was a humilitation for Russia as they were overwhelmingly beaten in a conflict with rebels who they had expected to run scared from modern armour and tanks.  The Russian army was revealed to be outdated, with poor leadership and equipment.  The defence minister Pavel Grchev got drunk on New Years Day 1995, his brithday, and ordered troops to attack during the celebrations - estimates vary into how many died in that attack, 1500-4000 is usually cited.  Grachev had the job mainly because he'd supported Yeltsin in the early 90s and was fired shortly after the election in 1996.

The human cost was immense - thousands of Russian soldiers died, many of them conscripted into the army without proper leadership or training.  The civilian cost to Chechnya will likely never be known but at least 2000 civilians are thought to have died in the battle with the total killed in the first war probably reaching 50,000. 

The war was part of the national humiliation and collapse that Russia suffered in the 1990s.  Economically, the country was thrown into poverty with many people forced to sell their possessions to survive.  Politically the domination by Yeltsin and the oligarchs around him was an era of huge corruption and hoarding of wealth.  Socially the country saw life expectacny fall, epidemics of alcoholism and drug addiction ravage it.  I don't think people can really understand Russia and the support that Putin enjoys without understanding the calamity of the 1990s for most Russians.

Of course, after the victory of 1996 Chechnya fell into effective anarchy, became a haven for jihadists who launched an attack on Dagestan that caused an intervention by Russian forces in 1999.  This time, led by Putin, the Russians were far more ruthless and, alongside their Chechen loyalist allies, they eventually won the initial conflict and over the course of the 2000s brutally stamped out the insurgency that followed.  The deaths in that war are again impossible to know but probably exceeded 100,000.

 

[ICTChris]

If you want an idea of what it was like to fight in the first Chechen war, here is a recording of Russian troops under fire, I think in the first battle of Grozny.  Their superiors effectively tell them there's nothing they can do, suggest they capture some civilians as human shields and then try and run away.

 

[SANTAN]

"Stop whining" 

[ICTChris]

Interesting news from Lebanon, where villagers appear to have disrupted a Hezbollah rocket launch against Israel.

There are also reports that the Lebanese Army intervened to confiscate the rockets, which would be unprecedented. Still unclear if that happened though.

 

[ICTChris]

This thread has some more videos and details in it.

 

Looks like Druze villagers twigged that Hezbollah were moving rockets through their village and stopped the truck and seized the weapons.  The Lebanese Army attended, confiscated the weapons and arrested four people moving them, presumably Hezbollah fighters.

I can't pretend to keep up with the mechanations of Lebanese politics but I think the Druze political party are opposed to Hezbollah. 

[ICTChris]

Saw some more Chechen war related stuff.  Arthur Naifonov won bronze for Russo in the 67kg freestyle wrestling division. When he was seven his school in Beslan was attacked by terrorists and he was taken hostage. His mother tried to rescue him but was killed.  

Zaurbek Sidakov won gold in the 74kg division for Russia and wasn’t in school on the day of the attack. He said prior to the Olympics "I decided then that if I ever achieve a great victory, I will dedicate it to all of them who suffered in Beslan”.

The Beslan attack must be the most pitiless and evil terrorist attack I can recall. 32 armed men, most Chechens, Ingush and other Russians but some foreign fighters as well (I think one British passport holder was involved) seized a primary school on the first day of term, when traditionally Russian children have parades and give gifts to teachers. They held hundreds of children hostage in the gym for several days and then detonated explosives before or during an assault by Russian troops, killing over 300 children. Absolute savagery. There’s a documentary about it that I remember from the time, Chikdren of Beslan, that really brings home the horror of it.

[welshbairn]

On 06/08/2021 at 15:17, ICTChris said:

This thread has some more videos and details in it.

 

Looks like Druze villagers twigged that Hezbollah were moving rockets through their village and stopped the truck and seized the weapons.  The Lebanese Army attended, confiscated the weapons and arrested four people moving them, presumably Hezbollah fighters.

I can't pretend to keep up with the mechanations of Lebanese politics but I think the Druze political party are opposed to Hezbollah. 

The Druze are a separate ethnoreligious group, the Swiss of the Levantine, adept at keeping out of internecine squabbles even managing to thrive in Israeli territory. They're also tough when it's needed.

Edited August 7, 2021 by welshbairn

[ICTChris]

I got this from the Twitter account of a freelance journalist based in Armenian and Georgia, @NeilPHauer. Well worth a follow on Caucasus issues.

[DiegoDiego]

The war between Tigray and Amhara rumbles on, nine months later. Tigray seem to have the edge, having made gains as far south as Lalibela.

[ICTChris]

On 15/07/2021 at 13:59, ICTChris said:

South Africa continues to experience very large scale civil conflict following the imprisonment of ex President Jacob Zuma. 25,000troops have now been deployed. Private citizens have been arming themselves with guns and machetes against the rioters.

Significant impact also being seen to the economy, already ravaged by Covid.

News report from Vice on the violence in South Africa, which seems to have abated in recent weeks.

 

I have relatives in South Africa, their house was burgled a few weeks ago, thankfully they were unharmed.  I can't really imagine living in an environment like that.

[DiegoDiego]

A lot of people rave about South Africa, but it's certainly not somewhere I'd like to live medium-term. The HIV stats alone are terrifying.

[Salt n Vinegar]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

News report from Vice on the violence in South Africa, which seems to have abated in recent weeks.

 

I have relatives in South Africa, their house was burgled a few weeks ago, thankfully they were unharmed.  I can't really imagine living in an environment like that.

Our house in Fife was burgled in the 1980s.... dreadful place....

[welshbairn]

Surprised the Taliban have taken Kunduz, they didn't use to have local support up there.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/09/asia/taliban-spokesperson-us-warning-intl-hnk/index.html

Edited August 9, 2021 by welshbairn

[DiegoDiego]

Surprised the Taliban have taken Kunduz, they didn't use to have local support up there.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/09/asia/taliban-spokesperson-us-warning-intl-hnk/index.html

Local support in Afghanistan is generally decided on a pragmatic "What can you do for us?" basis. Ideology doesn't much come into it. Provide the right incentives and you'll get the support you need.

[Detournement]

10 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Surprised the Taliban have taken Kunduz, they didn't use to have local support up there.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/09/asia/taliban-spokesperson-us-warning-intl-hnk/index.html

ITV News showed loads of videos of destroyed buildings without mentioning that it was the US Air Force bombing f**k out the city that did all the damage. 

[Boo Khaki]

14 hours ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

Our house in Fife was burgled in the 1980s.... dreadful place....

Fife in the 1980's?

Presumably the thieves made off with your penny farthings, pre-Luddite looms, and Father's leeches and bleeding bowls?

[Theroadlesstravelled]

21 hours ago, ICTChris said:

News report from Vice on the violence in South Africa, which seems to have abated in recent weeks.

 

I have relatives in South Africa, their house was burgled a few weeks ago, thankfully they were unharmed.  I can't really imagine living in an environment like that.

That video is something else. 

[SANTAN]

Chyna back at it again. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58141758

[Salt n Vinegar]

6 hours ago, Boo Khaki said:

Fife in the 1980's?

Presumably the thieves made off with your penny farthings, pre-Luddite looms, and Father's leeches and bleeding bowls?

You can mock, but I've never been able to adequately replace my collection of quill pens. Still, the tarot cards led us to the miscreants, who were promptly put in the village square stocks and pelted to death with cabbages. A grand sight and a fine day out for all the family.