Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[NotThePars]

Absolutely in bits at the Oz Katerji of Pie and Bovril sincerely posting “Merriam-Webster defines x as”

[ICTChris]

There are numerous videos now appearing, usually on Azeri Telegram channels, of war crimes commited during the recent war.  One shows a group of Azeri soldiers hodling down an Armenian prisoner and decapitating him.  There are others of civilians being mutilated and killed.  The soldiers involved clearly know they are being filmed and make no attempt to hide their identity.  The Azeri department of public prosecution has said they are investigating but it seems doubtful that much will be done - during clashes in 2016 similar photographs emerged and as far as anyone can see nothing was done.  In fact, Aliyev presented soldiers who closely resembled those in the photographs with medals for their war service.

 

[dorlomin]

Its a bit of a busy graphic but what I originally came to discuss. 

 

Its a difficult topic to really capture but it does show who relies on imported calories and who produces it. While production of primary produce is not really a source of great geopolitical power in the modern era (with the exception of energy) it helps visualise who is dependent on the global trade system. If the supposed deglobalistion was to happen over the next decade then those with the greatest imports would be most vulnerable. We can also see that even if a state like China was to defeat the US in an ocean war (very unlikely for some time) the repercussions of such a war would be serious, it would take a large number of new sources of food to make up for the US. Of the potential sources Brazil, Argentina, Canada and the European states would be hard for China to reach without dominating the whole Pacific and likely the global oceans. 

This is an aspect that is not really looked at. But in the decades to come we will have the problems of declining crop productivity in the tropics and subtropics while crops in the high latitudes will increase in productivity [PNAS paper here]. This would mean those countries closer to the equator will have to see reasonable increases in productivity from technological advances just to stand still. 

This is against a rapid growing global population 

(The longer term projections post 2075 may be off)

Much of this growth is from increases in life expectancy, and the lower fertility of modern young women still leading to an expansion due to more of them from the previous decades in population growth. 

 

Japan and the ROK are already at the point of declining. Much of eastern Europe, China and even some parts of western Europe will be not too far behind. 

This will see a profound and important change in the make up of the global population with Africa and South Asia becoming the most largest components. But currently these are poor countries that cannot afford to buy many calories on the global markets.  

We seen the kind of panic that PPE for SARS-Covid 19 produced. Food in a couple of decades may be less seemly. 

Oh but I am deeply suspicious of the deglobalisation narrative. 

(edited I have a good video on the short term impacts of deglobalisation on the shipping industry, but will wait for some folk to simmer down before posting it. )

Edited December 4, 2020 by dorlomin

[dorlomin]

8 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

There are numerous videos now appearing, usually on Azeri Telegram channels, of war crimes commited during the recent war.  One shows a group of Azeri soldiers hodling down an Armenian prisoner and decapitating him.  There are others of civilians being mutilated and killed.  The soldiers involved clearly know they are being filmed and make no attempt to hide their identity.  The Azeri department of public prosecution has said they are investigating but it seems doubtful that much will be done - during clashes in 2016 similar photographs emerged and as far as anyone can see nothing was done.  In fact, Aliyev presented soldiers who closely resembled those in the photographs with medals for their war service.

 

It would either take a the AKP to fall in Ankara or outside pressure from the Hague. 

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

15 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

(edited I have a good video on the short term impacts of deglobalisation on the shipping industry, but will wait for some folk to simmer down before posting it. )

 

[Detournement]

22 hours ago, dorlomin said:

https://medium.com/@areidross/from-exile-to-dirtbag-edgelord-geopolitics-and-the-rise-of-national-bolshevism-in-the-u-s-84822021b0e8

Mark Ames, John Dolan (The War Nerd) and their magazine "eXile" have some rather interesting friends. 

No surprise to see those pulled in by stuff largely aimed at the juvenile. 

All very much part of the post truth world of the far left and far right. 

Richard Spencer, National Bolshevism  As those freaks from eXile being a bunch of out and out rape advocates was not enough of a warning to steer the f**k clear. 

 

 

How does talking to Levine, Blumenthal and presumably Chapo Trap House (CTH) discredit Ames? Where does Richard Spencer fit in?

I'd say the Salisbury posioning narrative has huge holes in it but there's not even a public timeline of events so that would be giving it too much credit. There is a reason there will never be an inquest into Dawn Sturges death. 

[ICTChris]

Long read about the impact of the defeat on Armenia.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/armenia-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh.amp?__twitter_impression=true

[NotThePars]

Trying to find an appropriate piece of media that shows 5000 people hacking and slashing each other while one guy soldiers on in the centre of it all.

[ICTChris]

Trying to find an appropriate piece of media that shows 5000 people hacking and slashing each other while one guy soldiers on in the centre of it all.

[dorlomin]

Moldova has elected a new president. 

https://apnews.com/article/europe-coronavirus-pandemic-moldova-chisinau-russia-a09b50993ef2e82420dedd4553c2f652

They are far more pro western than the previous incumbent.  Though with current events regarding Poland and Hungary the EU will have much tougher standards for any applicant to meet. This means that they will be much further away from potential EU membership with reunification with Romania. Some are trying to paint this as a symptoms of an over all loss of influence for Putin. 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Incredible numbers in that General Strike in India which received very little coverage. 250 million, 1 in every 30 people on this planet went on strike.

[dorlomin]

25 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Please this is a serious forum

Excellent. Thank you for finally acknowledging this. 

Quote

 with reunification with Romania. 

I do apologise for my error. 

Quote

 with reunification with Romania being their most likely route. 

I do apologise to anyone who has struggle with my clear error. I am sure all comments have been in good faith.

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

@dorlomin what do you know about the various conflicts in central africa of the last 25(ish) years? You seem very knowledgeable and I've just watched this great documentary called "Kony 2012" (happy to provide a link if you would like to see it) and would love to learn more!

[D Angelo Barksdale]

GTA: Middle East looks good.

[NotThePars]

[ICTChris]

Moldova has elected a new president. 
https://apnews.com/article/europe-coronavirus-pandemic-moldova-chisinau-russia-a09b50993ef2e82420dedd4553c2f652
They are far more pro western than the previous incumbent.  Though with current events regarding Poland and Hungary the EU will have much tougher standards for any applicant to meet. This means that they will be much further away from potential EU membership with reunification with Romania. Some are trying to paint this as a symptoms of an over all loss of influence for Putin. 

A few years ago there was a gigantic fraud in Moldova when a bunch of politician/crooks stole the equivalent of an eighth of the countries GDP in a banking fraud. The Moldovan investigators published a report that implicated Scottish companies in laundering the proceeds. Addresses in Leith and Pilton in Edinburgh and the Ferry in Inverness were used to register limited companies used to dispose of the funds. One of the properties used was owned by John Hein, who ran as a candidate for the old Liberal Party in Leith in the 2010election.

One of the organisations linked to the fraud was also linked to Scottish companies. OGF, an NGO linked to lobbying on behalf of sanctioned oligarchs, ran campaigns for human rights while allegedly slushing funds from the fraud. In a great example of the bipartisanship sadly lacking in modern Scottish politics Tommy Sheppard and Lord Foulkes both appeared at events organised by the NGO, although there’s no suggestion either knew that the hugely wealthy Moldovan NGO whose events they attended was in any way less than 100% on the level.

[ICTChris]

This article from a few years ago says the SNP want to scrap them (I believe they were used in a Ukrainian example too) but no idea what happened with the review mentioned there. Im sure David Leask reported on one Lithuanian national living in Edinburgh being named as director on dozens of these things, like those folk in the Caymans. Presumably it's  reserved issue?
https://www.accountancydaily.co/snp-reiterates-calls-action-scottish-limited-partnerships-manifesto

this is the article I read about it, it is reserved.

https://www.ianfraser.org/the-moldovan-connection/

Incidentally, John Hein, Liberal candidate and head of hundreds of Completely Legitimate Companies, was a member of Paedophile Information Exchange, the notorious paedophile advocacy group.

https://www.pressreader.com/uk/scottish-daily-mail/20140621/281681137957838

[D Angelo Barksdale]

 

[NotThePars]

lol if this is legit

[Detournement]

On 05/12/2020 at 17:01, MixuFruit said:

This article from a few years ago says the SNP want to scrap them (I believe they were used in a Ukrainian example too) but no idea what happened with the review mentioned there. Im sure David Leask reported on one Lithuanian national living in Edinburgh being named as director on dozens of these things, like those folk in the Caymans. Presumably it's  reserved issue?

https://www.accountancydaily.co/snp-reiterates-calls-action-scottish-limited-partnerships-manifesto

The Tories voted it down.

I watched the debate, Alison Thewliss and Annaliese Dodds were very prominent in speaking against  Scottish Limited Partnerships.