Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[ICTChris]

7 hours ago, DiegoDiego said:

The top three are from Shushi, the bottom is of Agdam, where to Azeri side FC Qarabag originally hailed from, it'll be interesting to see if they relocate to Stepanakert in the next few years.

I don't really want to spam this thread with my photos, but here's a few more of interest.

1. A billboard celebrating success at the world tank biathlon championships on the road from Stepanakert to Agdam.

2. Two guys working out in Shushi. Its pretty sad to think they were more likely than most to be among the casualties.

3. Statue to a military commander from the 90's conflict.

4. Shushi cathedral, from where you can shell f**k out of Stepanakert and where the newlyweds in my previous post were standing outside.

5. Well, you can't not take a photo of a football stadium, can you. Stepanakert.

6. Inside a ruined mosque, Shushi. Note the cross carved into the pillar.

7. The family I stayed with in Stepanakert. 

Brilliant photos.  One very sad aspect of the war is that the casualty rate in Karabakh has been very high, the majority of Armenian casualties were 18-21 year old conscripts.  A generation of Armenians has been devasted by this war.  There have been 2,000 KIA confirmed by the Armenian side, there's been talk that the true figure is 4-5,000, with a similar amount on the Azeri side.  

Shushi Cathedral was shelled during the conflict and was immediately vandalised by Azeri troops.  The advancing troops also vandalised civilians cars caught in the conflict with teh following

The swastikas are pretty self explanatory.  Sumgait is a reference to one of the pogroms of Armenians at the very start of the conflict - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumgait_pogrom

[NotThePars]

Yea, I mean I disagree with a lot of what Maduro says especially when it comes to dismissing what are clearly real problems in the country (no doubt what is exacerbating these and Maduro points it out) but I had to laugh at the interviewer offering this as an example of the tragedy of Venezuela - "We have met with a young cancer patient whose mother was told she had to pay for his biopsy herself, and she told us it would take two years to earn the money." Damn that sucks! Wouldn't catch any developed countries heavily involved in Venezuelan affairs having an insane outcome like that by design.

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

8 hours ago, NotThePars said:

Yea, I mean I disagree with a lot of what Maduro says especially when it comes to dismissing what are clearly real problems in the country (no doubt what is exacerbating these and Maduro points it out) but I had to laugh at the interviewer offering this as an example of the tragedy of Venezuela - "We have met with a young cancer patient whose mother was told she had to pay for his biopsy herself, and she told us it would take two years to earn the money." Damn that sucks! Wouldn't catch any developed countries heavily involved in Venezuelan affairs having an insane outcome like that by design.

This is it for me. Maduro is clearly no Chavez and likely an awful shit, but his calling out of the cruelty and ultimate futility of sanctions and refusing to be lectured by the West on social problems is great. 

[Detournement]

There's no evidence that Maduro is 'an awful shit'. Saying that is just attempting to throw in some balance in case you get judged as tankie. One country is the aggressor and one country is the victim here. He's correct that the economic problems are being driven by US sanctions and that those sanctions are in place because America can't accept Venezuela's natural resources being used to improve the lives of the poor, majority non white population.

The interview is striking because it contrasts Maduro's world view where power and class conflict are real with Guerin's BBC world view where parliamentary processes are dominant and economic trends are completely divorced from political power. 

 

 

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

Hmmmm, I mean completely denying any responsibility for the economic problems in the country just isn't true though.

The sanctions massively exacerbate them for sure, but based on the conversations I've had with Venezuelans when I lived in Spain and Colombia, where there are a lot of newly arrived Venezuelan emigres, Maduro has been a disaster and seems to have enriched himself massively, while displaying increasingly authoritarian tendencies (downplaying the protests and violence used in suppressing them is equally untrue based on descriptions I've heard and footage I've seen).

These weren't the equivalent of the right wing Cubans in Florida, btw, but for the most part firm supporters of Chavez who hated having to live in a politically right wing swamp like Colombia. 

It's just a bit more complex than you're suggesting. Yes Venezuela is the wee country being attacked here, but it's also not Chavez's Venezuela anymore. I trust the testimony of people I've spoken to who have had their lives turned upside down in the last few years.

So aye, as much as he's fighting the good fight against imperialism I'm happy to call Maduro a bit of a shit tbh. 

[Detournement]

The Venezuelans who end up in political chats with English speaking westerners are generally from the wealthier, property owning  sections of society whether or not they are outwardly right wing nutters. If you are so sure it's down to Maduro then what should he do to alleviate the sanction?

Left wing governments are held to an impossible standard. They have to deal with consequences of centuries of oligarchy and are attacked by sanctions and sabotage yet are also expected to deal with social issues far more effectively than anyone demands of Western nations. If the BBC film someone eating out a bin Caracas it's down to corrupt left governance, if you see someone eating out a bin in London just look away. 

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

7 minutes ago, Detournement said:

The Venezuelans who end up in political chats with English speaking westerners are generally from the wealthier, property owning  sections of society whether or not they are outwardly right wing nutters. If you are so sure it's down to Maduro then what should he do to alleviate the sanction?

Left wing governments are held to an impossible standard. They have to deal with consequences of centuries of oligarchy and are attacked by sanctions and sabotage yet are also expected to deal with social issues far more effectively than anyone demands of Western nations. If the BBC film someone eating out a bin Caracas it's down to corrupt left governance, if you see someone eating out a bin in London just look away. 

Lol these were conversations in spanish with people sending home part of the pittance they earned working in bars/shops/informal nightlife to give their family a better chance of affording daft things like food and medicine. The city I lived in in Colombia is in one of the least visited places in the country by foreigners and had at most a couple hundred gringos in a population of about 300,000. It's called Villavicencio if you would like to look it up. But you just keep assuming away.

I'm quite happy with left wing governments being held to higher standards than right wing governments, and "the US forced me to do a brutal crackdown on protestors" doesn't cut the mustard for me I'm afraid.

What do you mean by sabotage btw? I mind now you posted about the oil refinery explosion in venezuela and very subtly hinted it was sabotage. Did you mean the one in 2012, when the union revealed that the state owned oil company had refused to listen to calls for higher safety standards in advance? Or the one in the last year or so when Maduro was calling everything a plot by spies?

 

[Detournement]

13 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Fairly sure you used the 'I've talked to folk from there and they say it's fine' line when you were challenged on your view of China not so long ago detournement.

There is a difference between describing conditions and attributing responsibility. No one would deny there are bleak conditions in Venezuela but understanding why requires a level of political engagement the vast majority people don't undertake. 

The crackpot claims about China were fantastical and disproven by basic observation. 

[Detournement]

On the subject of the power blackouts there's lots of evidence that they were orchestrated from the USA. I'd say it's very naive to say that they are unrelated to the massive attempt at a coup to install Guadio as President which was going on simultaneously.

If you want to give Elliot Abrams the benefit of the doubt that is up to you. 

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

I'm getting a heavy "it's different when it suits my views" type vibe again in regards reliability of sources.

I don't see how blame for the authoritarian actions of the government can be attributed to anyone other than the government tbh. And I don't think I agree that it requires an especially rare level of political engagement for those who have lived in a country to say "both x and y have contributed to our country's economy tanking, and we are angry at both of these things."

The "naive" thing is what you fall back to whenever you're just assuming something, and I'd say taking the word of an under pressure government with a history of mismanaging their refinery infrastructure is at least equally naive. You've not even clarified which of the refinery incidents in the last 10 years (I count at least 3) you're referring to. 

[NotThePars]

I don't see how blame for the authoritarian actions of the government can be attributed to anyone other than the government tbh.

It’s difficult because I do think the context of the situation is important and a lot of bad-faith critics will compare leaders and movements in situations of crisis unfavourably with those who aren’t and use that as an excuse to denounce them as specifically evil or monstrous but at the same time I just haven’t read much in the way of positivity about Maduro even from sources who were fully behind Chavez and Chavismo.

I read, and supported, those who said that critiques of Maduro during the Guaido crisis had no utility beyond providing cover for the US-backed coup but that’s different from saying there’s no problems that aren’t at least partially to be laid at the door of the Venezuelan government.

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

12 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

 

It’s difficult because I do think the context of the situation is important and a lot of bad-faith critics will compare leaders and movements in situations of crisis unfavourably with those who aren’t and use that as an excuse to denounce them as specifically evil or monstrous but at the same time I just haven’t read much in the way of positivity about Maduro even from sources who were fully behind Chavez and Chavismo.

I read, and supported, those who said that critiques of Maduro during the Guaido crisis had no utility beyond providing cover for the US-backed coup but that’s different from saying there’s no problems that aren’t at least partially to be laid at the door of the Venezuelan government.

 

Exactly, my issue is with people who celebrate his being so strong and forthright when being interviewed but say that he's powerless to do anything about Chavismo's gains being reversed and that it's all the oil price falling (which it's stupid to depend on anyway) or sanctions. 

If I could be arsed I'd do the two doges meme but where both are Maduro in the minds of those who won't allow him to be criticised

[Detournement]

10 minutes ago, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

Exactly, my issue is with people who celebrate his being so strong and forthright when being interviewed but say that he's powerless to do anything about Chavismo's gains being reversed and that it's all the oil price falling (which it's stupid to depend on anyway) or sanctions. 

If I could be arsed I'd do the two doges meme but where both are Maduro in the minds of those who won't allow him to be criticised

It's infinitely easier to get the BBC telt verbally than to overcome sanctions. I posted earlier in the thread about the USA hijacking ships with vital supplies, selling them on and keeping the proceeds. There is very little Maduro can do about that. 

I doubt the Venezuelan security forces act perfectly but the level of racist violence by Gusano protestors is extremely brutal. A black man was burned to death in the street. Metal wire strung across roads is used to kill moped drivers in poor areas. The government obviously has to crack down on those acts. America is doing exactly to Venezuela what it did to Chile under Allende with economic sanctions, sabotage and violence. 

Look at the reports today of the Colombian army executing thousands of innocent men and read up on the 300 plus murders of activists and community leaders if you want to see the real deal of violent authoritarianism. Then ask yourself why there are no sanctions on Colombia. 

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

3 hours ago, Detournement said:

It's infinitely easier to get the BBC telt verbally than to overcome sanctions. I posted earlier in the thread about the USA hijacking ships with vital supplies, selling them on and keeping the proceeds. There is very little Maduro can do about that. 

I doubt the Venezuelan security forces act perfectly but the level of racist violence by Gusano protestors is extremely brutal. A black man was burned to death in the street. Metal wire strung across roads is used to kill moped drivers in poor areas. The government obviously has to crack down on those acts. America is doing exactly to Venezuela what it did to Chile under Allende with economic sanctions, sabotage and violence. 

Look at the reports today of the Colombian army executing thousands of innocent men and read up on the 300 plus murders of activists and community leaders if you want to see the real deal of violent authoritarianism. Then ask yourself why there are no sanctions on Colombia. 

Ach I think we're arguing different things here and agree on much more than we disagree on. The sanctions are absolutely economic warfare and you're right, there's limited if any options in terms of alleviating the harms they cause. I'd say the crisis started prior to the real tightening of sanctions, and from what I've read there's been plenty of oligarching and mismanagement, but there were other external factors as well. 

I get that at some point you have to take a stand and both sidesing these types of things isn't productive, but maybe I feel a wee bit personally about it given the people I met and the way they talked about the authoritarianism there. I don't think we'll agree as there's too many competing narratives and comparisons to make but it's grim.

As for Colombia it's an absolute basket case, obviously. The stories you mention are sadly unremarkable. Santos and Uribe, the two most recent former presidents, are both implicated in the practice of soldiers collecting bounties by shooting street kids and calling them FARC, the right wing paramilitaries are still everywhere and indigenous leaders/journalists/activists are at as much risk now as they ever have been. 

As an aside the gringos in Villavicencio were split in two - those teaching English in various education/propaganda programs, and a handful of US military advisors at the big air force base outside of town, who you sometimes saw but never met. It's the closest city to the Llanos, which connects to Venezuela and is where most of Colombia's oil is, and also the closest to the forests where FARC were at their strongest.

Their job was to coordinate bombing the shit out of the jungle and turn a blind eye to farmers who refused to sell to the oil companies being harassed by aircraft. So aye, it's pretty obvious why there's no sanctions on Colombia. There were rumours they also used to take the odd helicopter trip over the border, but with the distances involved I'd doubt it, although I'm sure they were from other points. 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Absolutely fucking grim stuff here as are brave Bruces and Sheilas have been caught doing war crimes.

No wonder the UK government are battering through the 'war crimes are good actually bill 2020', a rare bit of foresight from the tories given that witnesses in Oz have already told the inquiry that both us and the Yanks have been up to similar and worse.

 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

19 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Are there going to be any trials based on this?

Perhaps. The inquiry has recommended that the polis investigate and prosecute if there's enough evidence.

[ICTChris]

I'm sure there's an ongoing case into UK Special forces soldiers doing pretty much the same in Afghanistan.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Centerism still a gateway drug that leads to fascism

[Detournement]

Macron is moving to the right before the elections. in 2022. Completely cynical.

It's also worth noting that he was doing this before the recent murders.

[NotThePars]

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/ap-exclusive-letter-venezuelan-jail-give-freedom-74420152