Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[ICTChris]

Armenia appears to be collapsing into anarchy. Protesters have stormed Parliament and are marching towards the Prime administers residence. The Speaker of Parliament has been beaten unconscious and his whereabouts are unknown.

[welshbairn]

FFS. BTW, praise to @ICTChris for being our man on the ground in Nagorno-Karabakh. 

P.S.

 

[ICTChris]

As this is the geopolitical thread, this war is hugely significant. Azerbaijan have won thanks to the strong backing of Turkey. Armenia has no such backer and paid for it. Smaller countries facing any military threat will see this as a move towards great power politics.

In terms of the region Armenia has been devastated by this war, economically and the loss of life has been huge. There’s a big question about the survival of the government, Armenia’s first real democracy. Some parties who were removed from power in the Velvet Revolution of 2018 are calling on Pashinyan’s resignation and have met with members of the military, although from the sounds of it the army won’t be in any state to mount a coup. Also, many in Armenia fear that Azeri forces will begin to look at other territory, including that within Armenia proper. There are many people around Aliyev who have made statements that the Southern regions of Armenia should be Azeri. It’s also highly likely that the majority of the Armenians of Karabakh won’t return to their homes, given the control Azerbaijan has of lots of the region.

Aliyecv, an anti democratic authoritarian, has cemented his grip on power in Azerbaijan absolutely, he is unassailable now. Having said that, his countries independence is now dependent on Turkey and he has thousands of Russian troops in his country. I doubt anyone will care about that though, he has delivered what has been demanded for decades.

The use of drones in the war also seems to have been decisive and militaries across the world will be paying close attention and developing their anti drone technology. The use of Syrian mercenaries is also a new trend with Turkey using them as shock troops in their proxy conflicts.

[ICTChris]

One thing worth noting as well is that a reason given by the Karabakh prime minster for ending the war is that Covid had exhausted the army.

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

I've noticed that a large number of folk on gammon Twitter have added Armenia flags to their usernames. Is this purely because they have decided that Armenia = salt of the Earth white Christians and Azerbaijan = evil brown Muslamic types?

[ICTChris]

I've noticed that a large number of folk on gammon Twitter have added Armenia flags to their usernames. Is this purely because they have decided that Armenia = salt of the Earth white Christians and Azerbaijan = evil brown Muslamic types?

The only non-Armenian or Azeri people I’ve seen taking any interest in this on social media have been conflict and international affairs analysts. The conflict is nationalistic rather than religious, although the Armenian side has begun to emphasis Christianity more (Armenia is the oldest Christian country on earth).

Also, Armenians and Azeris are not different races. One of the odd things is that literal Caucasians are all fairly dark skinned. If any side has brought race into the war it’s the Azeris, whose President has pushed a strange theory that Armenians aren’t indigenous to the Caucasus but are remnants of the Russian imperial invasions.

I’ve seen two reactions about this among Armenians on social media -one is that this is the result of poor leadership for the last 25 years and is the end result of corrupt and nepotistic oligarchs. The other is that Pashinyan is a traitor who has sold out the nation and Armenian people. I don’t think he can survive as leader, what comes next will determine the future for Armenia, if one exists.

[ICTChris]

Here is a visual representation of the agreement.

 

 

All the areas within the green line were controlled by Armenian forces pre-War. Most of the Southern areas were lost in battle, the other areas were ceded in the agreement.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

 

[ICTChris]

BBC Russian service offers an analysis of the war.,  It certainly looks like the Armenian side did not prepare their defences well enough and did not plan their purchases carefully.  Azerbijan did and had a partner in Turkey who could assist them in deploying them.  Turkey also used similar tactics in Afrin in Syria.  You need to translate the page.

https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-54900906?xtor=AL-73-[partner]-[bbc.news.twitter]-[headline]-[russian]-[bizdev]-[isapi]&at_custom4=10F2A4D0-2408-11EB-9DA8-CBEB4744363C&at_custom3=BBC+Russian&at_campaign=64&at_medium=custom7&at_custom1=[post+type]&at_custom2=twitter

There are certainly big questions about what Armenia has been doing for the 25 years since the last war.  They appear to have been relying on old weapons and when they were new they were unsuitable.  They didn't respond to what Azerbijan were doing and didn't set up their defences to allow them to properly resist attacks.  Politically, there has been a huge failure from Armenian leaders.  The President resigned in 1998 over a proposed deal which would have returned the 'buffer' regions to Azeri control but the long term plan seems to have been just to hope the status quo held.  Nobody seems to have been strong enough to say "eventually we can't justify holding these regions, we need to trade land for peace".  A deal where the returned regions were demilitarised or had Russian peacekeepers could have been worked out but there were no direct talks for 20 years, while successive Armenian governments ransacked the country through graft and corruption in the classic post-Soviet style.

The actions of the government post-2018 Velvet Revolution also need examined.  They don't seem to have improved defence spending or preparation and their political decisions have been very suspect.  Pashinyan made statements about uniting Artsakh with Armenia which were taken as evidence that the Armenian side weren't intrested in negotiations.  The Karabakh authorities also stopped referring to the buffer zones as such and incorporated them into their Republic, a move that wouldn't convince anyone of a non-military solution.  I saw one analyst saying that this has be treated as a new beginning for the whole country, like Germany post-WW2.  

[Detournement]

I've noticed what certainly be appears to be a coordinated media campaign to frame the lack of a NATO war on Damascus as a humanitarian failure. Neocon ghouls are also starting to talk about R2P again. 

I would not be surprised to see a 'chemical attack' in Idlib around February/March time. 

[ICTChris]

This article has been shared a few times by Armenians I follow. Pretty stark statement about reality in a region like the South Caucasus.

https://unherd.com/thepost/armenia-another-country-abandoned-to-its-fate/

As the article mentions, Armenians are withdrawing from their homes in areas to be handed over to Azeri forces. Azeri state media has already begun erasing Armenian history in the region claiming that monasteries like Davidank are “Caucasian Albanian”. No doubt the petrodollars will finance the building of Potemkin villages around them.

[DiegoDiego]

A few photos I took of Karabakh in happier times.

[ICTChris]

I remember you posting here before about going. Are those photos in Stepanakert?

[NotThePars]

Caught up on the War Nerd breakdown of the war and the big conclusions seem to be “great advert for drone supremacy with questions about who will possess them and where they’re going to be deployed in the future. Also big win for Turkey.”

[DiegoDiego]

I remember you posting here before about going. Are those photos in Stepanakert?

The top three are from Shushi, the bottom is of Agdam, where to Azeri side FC Qarabag originally hailed from, it'll be interesting to see if they relocate to Stepanakert in the next few years.

I don't really want to spam this thread with my photos, but here's a few more of interest.

1. A billboard celebrating success at the world tank biathlon championships on the road from Stepanakert to Agdam.

2. Two guys working out in Shushi. Its pretty sad to think they were more likely than most to be among the casualties.

3. Statue to a military commander from the 90's conflict.

4. Shushi cathedral, from where you can shell f**k out of Stepanakert and where the newlyweds in my previous post were standing outside.

5. Well, you can't not take a photo of a football stadium, can you. Stepanakert.

6. Inside a ruined mosque, Shushi. Note the cross carved into the pillar.

7. The family I stayed with in Stepanakert.

[Detournement]

Evo is the man.

And speaking of Gringo, imperialist capitalists....

 

 

Edited November 18, 2020 by Detournement

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Big Nic trolling Guaido.

 

[Detournement]

Legend. The interview where he schooled the BBC stooge was class.

[NotThePars]

17 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Legend. The interview where he schooled the BBC stooge was class.

The one where he says "you are not a journalist"?

[Detournement]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-latin-america-47211509

He doesn't say your not a journalist but he calls her out for having a world view dictated by USA policy. I don't think the interview went quite how the BBC planned, the only part they promoted on TV was when he called Trump a white supremacist. The link between sanctions war and white supremacy was not broadcast. 

Edited November 18, 2020 by Detournement