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dorlomin

Geopolitics in the 2020s.

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Putin talked about the origins of the war in his comments a few days ago.  During the Soviet era there were complaints from Karabakh Armenians that they were discriminated against by the government of the Azeri republic and when glasnost began they formed a group to campaign for their rights, which included unification with Armenia.  Following demonstrations phsyical clashes developed between Azeris and Armenians.  When news of these clashes spread to Baku and other areas in Azerbijan serious ethnic violence began, with Armenians in Baku and Sumgait expelled from their homes, alongside hundreds of killings.  In total around 200,000 Armenians living in Azerbiijan were expelled.  These refugees returned to Armenia or Karabakh, which resulted in increased agitation for Armenian control of the territory.  The Soviet leadership in Azerbijan moved against the Armenains during Operation Ring, where Soviet troops were used against Armenian militias in what was called the first (and only) civil war in the Soviet Union.  After the collapse of the USSR the war in Karabakh became full scale.

In a sad ironic twist, a lot of the Azeri refugees from the war went to live in Sumgait, from where many Armenians had been expelled.

Edited by ICTChris

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Just watching a thing about the Berlin Wall coming down. Sad to think we're just erecting a new one in the Channel. 

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We're really not tbh. East Germans literally couldn't travel to the West without a specific permit which is why they flooded into Hungary in a bunch of knackered Trabants to cross the border there in 1989. Travel and working between Gammonland UK and the EU is still going to be quite straightforward but less so than the previous arrangements for no valid reason.

Meanwhile on the external frontier of the EU huge amounts of money are being paid to corrupt governments and on walls/decrepit refugee camps/violent enforcement to keep immigration to a premium ever since Hungary and the other Eurogammons took hold of the agenda after the 2016 influx. When it comes to migration the UK and the bulk of Europe run similar regimes of arbitrary cruelty and privilege.

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2 hours ago, virginton said:

We're really not tbh. East Germans literally couldn't travel to the West without a specific permit which is why they flooded into Hungary in a bunch of knackered Trabants to cross the border there in 1989. Travel and working between Gammonland UK and the EU is still going to be quite straightforward but less so than the previous arrangements for no valid reason.

Meanwhile on the external frontier of the EU huge amounts of money are being paid to corrupt governments and on walls/decrepit refugee camps/violent enforcement to keep immigration to a premium ever since Hungary and the other Eurogammons took hold of the agenda after the 2016 influx. When it comes to migration the UK and the bulk of Europe run similar regimes of arbitrary cruelty and privilege.

Quite, it's all a bit depressing after watching the happy faces of badly dressed people hacking at the Berlin Wall with sledge hammers. In my case the Channel Wall will make a significant difference in that the EHIC protection will be abolished which means that affordable travel insurance for someone with pre-existing conditions will be almost impossible. I realise that my holidays aren't quite as important as the collapse of the Soviet empire and its satellites but it pisses me right off. And it annoys me that the principle of freedom of movement, even within a restricted area of countries and people, has been thrown away for no rational reason. 

Edited by welshbairn

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47 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Quite, it's all a bit depressing after watching the happy faces of badly dressed people hacking at the Berlin Wall with sledge hammers. In my case the Channel Wall will make a significant difference in that the EHIC protection will be abolished which means that affordable travel insurance for someone with pre-existing conditions will be almost impossible. I realise that my holidays aren't quite as important as the collapse of the Soviet empire and its satellites but it pisses me right off. And it annoys me that the principle of freedom of movement, even within a restricted area of countries and people, has been thrown away for no rational reason. 

"The Collapse" by Mary Elise Sarotte is an excellent book about the wall.  She indicates that it could easily have been more bloody than it was.

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Azeri troops are 5km from Shushi, one of the larger towns in Karabakh. As mentioned above it has a history of massacres and ethnic cleansing, already in this conflict the historic cathedral has been shelled.

I actually read an interesting article by a regional analyst that talked about the different courses the War could take depending on where the Azeris targeted next. https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/azerbaijans-next-move-will-make-or-break-karabakh-war/

Elsewhere in the war there has been another horrific strike on an Azeri City, with an Armenian rocket attack killing 20 civilians in Barda. There has been some chatter about the Armenian side having increased success bringing down Azeri/Turkish drones, with possible assistance from the Russian army.

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17 hours ago, Detournement said:

'International rules based order'.

That's just piracy isnt it?

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Venezuela's got the biggest oil reserves on the planet, double Iran's. I don't get it. Venezuela pays for the oil in gold bars when it gets through.

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7 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Venezuela's got the biggest oil reserves on the planet, double Iran's. I don't get it. Venezuela pays for the oil in gold bars when it gets through.

They don't have any refineries.

That's how neocolonialism works. America and Europe take the raw materials from the poor countries at a cheap price then sell it back to them as expensive products.  

 

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23 minutes ago, Detournement said:

They don't have any refineries.

That's how neocolonialism works. America and Europe take the raw materials from the poor countries at a cheap price then sell it back to them as expensive products.  

 

Someone's played the trade game!

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I read The Open Veins of Latin America which goes into a lot of detail about trade. This is a good wee summary 

 

Screenshot_20201101_175007.jpg

Liberals want people to believe this is down to the hidden hand of the market but it's actually due to richer countries sponsoring coups and bankrolling governments which act against their own economic interests and agree to destructive trade deals. 

Edited by Detournement

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56 minutes ago, Detournement said:

They don't have any refineries.

That's how neocolonialism works. America and Europe take the raw materials from the poor countries at a cheap price then sell it back to them as expensive products.  

 

You forgot to mention Japan.

It always seemed strange to me.  The countries that had natural resources did not necessarily get rich as a result but the countries that turned those natural resources into something useful did.

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I still don't get why Venezuela didn't put some of their oil revenues aside to build a refinery, given the massive value added it would provide. They've been an independent country for over 200 years, whether ruled by feudalists, capitalists or communists. You would have thought at least the capitalists and communists would have got it sorted. Castro would have.

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34 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I still don't get why Venezuela didn't put some of their oil revenues aside to build a refinery, given the massive value added it would provide. They've been an independent country for over 200 years, whether ruled by feudalists, capitalists or communists. You would have thought at least the capitalists and communists would have got it sorted. Castro would have.

They've only been led by socialists for 20 years and have been under sanctions for most of the time. They had a refinery but it mysteriously blew up in 2013.....

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/05/hashim-thaci-kosovos-president-resigns-to-face-war-crimes-charges-in-the-hague

Not something you see every day: a statesman supposedly going to The Hague instead of just fobbing it off and fleeing to northern Cyprus or somewhere 0.2 seconds after leaving office.

Edited by vikingTON

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Organ harvesting from prisoners is a bit naughty if true. It sounds like a thing baddies are accused of in Hollywood films to make the audience want revenge, rather than something that's a pragmatic way of making money for a guerrilla army. The trial will be interesting.

https://balkaninsight.com/2011/01/21/the-drenica-group/

 

 

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