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Geopolitics in the 2020s.


dorlomin

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Anyone watched the BBC documentary about the mole that goes undercover in North Korea, joins some friends of Korea group, infiltrates the hierarchy and him and his fake billionaire mate manage to plan to build weapons factories in Uganda with North Koreans? Mental stuff. 

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43 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

Anyone watched the BBC documentary about the mole that goes undercover in North Korea, joins some friends of Korea group, infiltrates the hierarchy and him and his fake billionaire mate manage to plan to build weapons factories in Uganda with North Koreans? Mental stuff. 

Incredible stuff, difficult to think it might not have been a spoof. If it's real I wouldn't be optimistic for the life expectancy of most of the participants. I don't think the weapons factory got further than the fancy drawings btw.

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Just now, welshbairn said:

Incredible stuff, difficult to think it might not have been a spoof. If it's real I wouldn't be optimistic for the life expectancy of most of the participants. I don't think the weapons factory got further than the fancy drawings btw.

Yeah of course, half way through I was expecting them to realise they were also dealing with chancers. That Alejandro guy was sum boi, the part with the mic bug had me so anxious for the mole. I know the factory wasnt built but it was frightening how they're meeting government officials and telling the locals they're building a hospital (that part would've been so grim)

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17 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

Yeah of course, half way through I was expecting them to realise they were also dealing with chancers. That Alejandro guy was sum boi, the part with the mic bug had me so anxious for the mole. I know the factory wasnt built but it was frightening how they're meeting government officials and telling the locals they're building a hospital (that part would've been so grim)

The bit when the ex Foreign Legion guy asked the Koreans for their list of Syrian contacts in the Beijing hotel, so he could arrange to smuggle them arms, was my wtf moment. The look he got was chilling.

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10 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

Massive pinch of salt needed, but Vlad may be on his way out. He's had a good innings tbf, 20 years, 2nd only to Uncle Joe.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13122054/vladamir-putin-resign-next-year-health/

 

Quote

And informed analysts claimed that the Russian president’s glamorous ex-gymnast lover Alina Kabaeva, 37 - once dubbed 'Russia's most flexible woman' - is begging him to release his grip on power.

Poor Vlad..

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42 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The bit when the ex Foreign Legion guy asked the Koreans for their list of Syrian contacts in the Beijing hotel, so he could arrange to smuggle them arms, was my wtf moment. The look he got was chilling.

Oh aye, I was beyond amazed they went to Beijing in the first place. 

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The war in Karabakh continues, with the Azeri forces pushing for the symbolic and strategic town of Shushi. The gains appear to have slowed probably due to a number of factors. One, most of the flat terrain in the South has already been taken leaving mountains and forests which are harder to capture; two, weather is more favourable to the defenders with cloud cover stopping Turkish drones from being as effective, allowing the use of armour and tanks in open field; three, Azeri forces were stretched in terms of supplies and communications as well as sustaining relatively high casualties (recent Armenian ambushes have killed reserve units operating on the front line).

The Armenians are still at a disadvantage though. While they are holding off attacks to the North and West they cannot redeploy forces to protect Shushi. They have also lost a lot of armour and tanks to drone strikes and both these factors mean it will be hard for the defenders to amount any counter attacks to try and push the Azeris back. There are some suggestions that Armenians are having more success in shooting down drones, with alleged assistance from Russian forces, and they have now started operating their own UAVs, posting a video of a strike against Azeri troops massing South of Shushi earlier this week. It’s highly likely these UAVs have been bought from Russia and likely won’t be as powerful as the Turkish and Israeli models used by Azerbaijan.

Diplomatic efforts apparently continue but it seems like the game’s a bogey on that front. Ceasefires haven’t held for ten minutes and no major power appears willing to do anything concrete to stop the fighting. Iran’s foreign minister visited each side recently to try and move talks forward but got nowhere. The Iranians have moved troops and air power to their borders with Azerbaijan as a precaution - a number of missiles and UAVs have hit Iranian territory during the war.

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10 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

I wrote a big post about the Syrian Civil War in this thread last night but my iPad ran out of battery and I can’t be bothered posting it again.

I'll summarise for you. Anyone who thinks there are goodies and baddies to side with is a fucking idiot, even the cuddly PR expert Kurds.

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6 hours ago, welshbairn said:

I'll summarise for you. Anyone who thinks there are goodies and baddies to side with is a fucking idiot, even the cuddly PR expert Kurds.

There's a few Kurds running a shop round the corner from me

Great bunch of lads, stock the best Feta cheese in Edinburgh

 

Possibly not a big enough sample to extrapolate significant findings from though.

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On 07/11/2020 at 11:14, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

Massive pinch of salt needed, but Vlad may be on his way out. He's had a good innings tbf, 20 years, 2nd only to Uncle Joe.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13122054/vladamir-putin-resign-next-year-health/

 

GIven that they are heads of state of different countries i'm not sure what point The Sun are trying to make there. Koba wasn't even Russian!

If it's just absolute legends that have increased the standing of Russia for a long time they are both well behind Ivan The Terrible,  Peter The Great and Nicholas 1.

Putin probably realises he has met his match in Joe Biden and is preparing to leave the stage...

 

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The Azeri MOD have announced they've captured Shushi, the Armenians are saying the battles are ongoing.  This is fairly typical for the whole war but it seems likely that most of what remains of the town will be captured by Azeri forces.  All the population has fled and it's likely just going to be a pile of rubble.

There are also persistent rumours that a deal has been worked out between Russia and Turkey for a settlement and the deployment for peacekeepers, Russian for Armenian areas and Turkish for Azeri.  It remains to be seen if this will go the same way as the other ceasefires but talk of peacekeeping troops is new and suggests that it's a bit more serious.  

There are also consistent reports of war crimes from the Azeri troops - civilian executions, houses and property being burned and summary executions of prisoners are all reported.

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The helicopter was accompanying a Russian military convoy that was reinforcing positions on the Armenian border. Since the break up of the Soviet Union Russian troops have manned Armenian borders. It used to be one of the most militarised borders in the world, the only direct border between the USSR and a NATO country.

 

It’ll be interesting to see the Russian response. I don’t think they’ll weigh in in any meaningful way, one thing this conflict has shown is that the Eurasian Economic Union (the alternative to the EU that Putin wanted Ukraine to join prior to the overthrow of their government) and the CSTO (a post soviet security alliance) really aren’t worth the paper their treaters are signed on. EEU and CSTO countries have continued to sell military equipment during the war to Azerbaijan, despite Armenia being a member and Azerbaijan not.

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A truce has been agreed. All Armenian forces are to withdraw from regions outside Karabakh itself. Azerbaijan keeps the territory it has seized. 1900 Russian peacekeepers deployed. A corridor between Armenia proper and Karabakh to be set up and policed by Russians.

 

If this does end the war then it’s clearly a victory for Azerbaijan. They have reclaimed the non Karabakh regions and some of Karabakh itself. The Armenians have lost their buffer zone and some of the territory of Karabakh itself but the enclave hasn’t been stormed and completely lost.

 

Apparently protesters in Armenia itself have stormed government buildings in protest at the agreement.

 

 

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