Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[Detournement]

31 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Bolivia election: exit polls suggest thumping win for Evo Morales' party

Is Bolivia poised to swing back towards socialism? A year after the country’s first indigenous president was controversially ousted, his party is well placed to win a rerun presidential election

The first link there appeared after my post. Someone must have woken up in Washington.

The second one is the only story they published in the build up.

[welshbairn]

6 minutes ago, Detournement said:

 

The second one is the only story they published in the build up.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/11/bolivia-justice-system-evo-morales-allies-human-rights-watch-report

[Detournement]

6 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/11/bolivia-justice-system-evo-morales-allies-human-rights-watch-report

Nearly 6 weeks ago!

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

Nearly 6 weeks ago!

You're a hard man to satisfy! There have been some other things going on in the world in the meantime, Bolivia isn't on top of everyone's radar.

[BawWatchin]

4 hours ago, ICTChris said:

 

 

"Biden wants to launch a socialist takeover of health"

He says it like it's a bad thing.

[Detournement]

This feels like the first day there has been any good news at all since Obama knifed Bernie.

Edited October 19, 2020 by Detournement

[Detournement]

It was pretty obvious that the coup made the MAS much stronger but it also appears to have widened their appeal as well. Congratulations CIA.

I was wondering why the right winger who got 10-15% Camacho didn't drop out. It turns out he is from a province in the east of the country which is fertile and resource rich and is largely populated by ethnic Germans who are primarily motivated by not paying tax to the rest of the country. We need more right wing factionalism everywhere.

Edited October 20, 2020 by Detournement

[bendan]

On 19/10/2020 at 11:00, MixuFruit said:

Good stuff from Bolivia. Long jail sentences all round for the coup leaders, rapid rescinding of all the bollocks they legislated on first order of the day I hope.

Especially that crazy notion that the constitutional two-term limit ought to mean a two-term limit.

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, bendan said:

Especially that crazy notion that the constitutional two-term limit ought to mean a two-term limit.

Even after holding a referendum that confirmed it. 

[NotThePars]

2 hours ago, bendan said:

Especially that crazy notion that the constitutional two-term limit ought to mean a two-term limit.

 

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

Even after holding a referendum that confirmed it. 

Do you think the coup leaders were motivated first and foremost by a sincere belief in upholding democracy? 

[Detournement]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/20/nigeria-protests-lead-to-24-hour-lagos-curfew

Security forces open fire on anti police corruption protestors in Lagos. Because Nigeria allows the West to control it's oil and destroy it's environment there will be no sanctions.

You never really seem to hear much about political struggle in sub Saharan Africa in UK/American media. There is interest in people when they become refugees but not so much in preventing that.

[bendan]

1 hour ago, NotThePars said:

 

Do you think the coup leaders were motivated first and foremost by a sincere belief in upholding democracy? 

I think it's clear neither side was interested in upholding democracy. But at least there's finally been another election and MAS have won with a new candidate. Final outcome seems reasonable.

[NotThePars]

1 hour ago, bendan said:

I think it's clear neither side was interested in upholding democracy. But at least there's finally been another election and MAS have won with a new candidate. Final outcome seems reasonable.

Do you think it was worth a coup, rushed IMF loan and the murder of pro-Morales supporters and indigenous peoples to get here?

[bendan]

46 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

Do you think it was worth a coup, rushed IMF loan and the murder of pro-Morales supporters and indigenous peoples to get here?

You're calling it a coup, but I wouldn't personally consider removing a leader, of any political persuasion, who has breached a constitutional term limit and thinks he's above the law as a coup. The mess of the last year is primarily the result of the hubris and vanity of Morales. Hardly the first time in Latin America.

[welshbairn]

46 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

Do you think it was worth a coup, rushed IMF loan and the murder of pro-Morales supporters and indigenous peoples to get here?

Of course not, but the election's proven that Morales didn't have to override the constitution for his party to stay in power. His ego in not handing over to someone else in his party when his time was up contributed to the Right's  excuse to mount their coup. 

[Savage Henry]

2 hours ago, Detournement said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/20/nigeria-protests-lead-to-24-hour-lagos-curfew

Security forces open fire on anti police corruption protestors in Lagos. Because Nigeria allows the West to control it's oil and destroy it's environment there will be no sanctions.

You never really seem to hear much about political struggle in sub Saharan Africa in UK/American media. There is interest in people when they become refugees but not so much in preventing that.

The lack of coverage of Mali and the JNIM in the Sahel is borderline scandalous.  There was a coup d’etat six weeks ago, for crying out loud.

[ICTChris]

The war in Karabakh continues. Azeri forces have advanced through the Southern regions held by Armenians and are now almost within shelling distance of the Lachin corridor, the link between Armenia proper and Karabakh. There are heavy losses in both sides - Russian President Putin said yesterday that their estimates are that more than 5,000 soldiers have been killed, a rough split between Azeri and Armenian. To give some context the six year war in the late 80s and early 90s saw 30,000 deaths - this war has lasted less than a month. Proportionally this war has killed more Armenians than the Vietnam War killed Americans, the figure for Azerbaijan will be slightly less as it’s a bigger country but they have suffered heavy casualties also.

If the Azeri army can take Lachin then there will be a humanitarian catastrophe in Karabakh. There are still tens of thousands of civilians in the territory and they will be cut off completely, with no supplies or medical aid. There is also the very real prospect of genocidal violence against Armenian civilians - Azeri forces have already killed civilians in earlier conflicts and in this one.

Here is a thread about the risks of this

Russia has hinted that they would intervene to prevent significant deaths and in his remarks Putin did talk about the roots of the conflict being in ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Azerbaijan but all indications are that Russia have left the Armenians of Karabakh alone in this. The Armenian side have indicated they will not surrender or negotiate so it’s a fight to the death.

The way the conflict is going we will probably be seeing a lot more horror in the next few months.

[ICTChris]

Thread about the Iranian view of the war

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Armenia still holding back on deploying their secret weapon of Dan Bilzerian and his platoon of bikini clad, gun toting lassies.

 

[ICTChris]

Armenia still holding back on deploying their secret weapon of Dan Bilzerian and his platoon of bikini clad, gun toting lassies.
 

Dan contributed to the fight by tweeting about the war, calling the Azeris “goat fuckers” a few weeks ago.