Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[Detournement]

1 hour ago, NotThePars said:

 

Their documentary stuff can be class. I mean they helped Adam Curtis make Bitter Lake and HyperNormalisation.

 

For a very good reason. Adam Curtis is one for the watching. 

 

[NotThePars]

For a very good reason. Adam Curtis is one for the watching. 
 

??

[Detournement]

32 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

??

He was apparently close to the RCP/Living Marxism group who later jumped the dyke to become alt right Spiked. They are almost certainly a security services op given how well funded they have been for decades. 

The reason the BBC fund his films is because they are vacuous spectacles that don't critique power or class relations they simply add even more obsfucation to hide the reality of those relations. The best example is his focus on the the link between the Iraq dodgy dossier and the movie The Rock. His target audience obviously lap it up but the real effect is to hide that the Iraq War happened because the class represented by Bush wanted to accumulate more wealth and power.

I'm obviously cynical but it seems like his work is funded and promoted to create a safety layer between the standard BBC/MSM propaganda and sources that genuinely challenge power. His films dazzle and engorge rather than lead the viewer towards clearer critical thinking. 

 

[Detournement]

5 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Everyone except David Aaronovitch accepts that was the casus belli though. If he's an intelligence asset he's not doing a very good job.

As I said the purpose isn't to do straight up Aaronovitch style denial. It's to create a high profile and easily digestible misdirection for people that might otherwise stumble onto genuinely radical literature.

[NotThePars]

He was apparently close to the RCP/Living Marxism group who later jumped the dyke to become alt right Spiked. They are almost certainly a security services op given how well funded they have been for decades. 
The reason the BBC fund his films is because they are vacuous spectacles that don't critique power or class relations they simply add even more obsfucation to hide the reality of those relations. The best example is his focus on the the link between the Iraq dodgy dossier and the movie The Rock. His target audience obviously lap it up but the real effect is to hide that the Iraq War happened because the class represented by Bush wanted to accumulate more wealth and power.
I'm obviously cynical but it seems like his work is funded and promoted to create a safety layer between the standard BBC/MSM propaganda and sources that genuinely challenge power. His films dazzle and engorge rather than lead the viewer towards clearer critical thinking. 
 

I’m not sure I agree with that. The big dividing line I’ve felt with Curtis is that his movies are self-conscious fairy tales and it’s whether you’re willing to accept an often too neatly tied in narrative that brings about often disparate political events together. He definitely has a fairly consistent critique of power and his argument that Occupy - and the left in general - went astray because of its inability to think critically about power and how to seize it is a pretty cogent critique of the modern left IMO. It’s been ages since I listened to his Chapo interview actually maybe I’ll stick that on again despite preferring the one they did with China Mieville.

[ICTChris]

On 06/10/2020 at 11:52, ICTChris said:

In more positive news, the fighting intensity has decreased in the last two days. Bellicose statements are forthcoming from Turkey and Azerbaijan but the actual fighting is reducing. Could be the clam before a new offensive but could also be the prelude to a ceasefire.

 

Fighting and shelling has resumed, with Azerbijan claiming that they have retaken significant areas of occupied territory around the Iranian border.  If I'm right, this territory was basicallky siezed without a fight in 1993/94 by Armenian troops as the Azeri army was routed and was always considered hard to defend.

Civilian areas have been attacked by both sides, with Azeri cities Ganja and Tartar coming under heavy shelling by Armenian forces (Orla Guerin reported on this on thr BBC last night).  Meanwhile Stepanakert, capital of Karabakh and biggest city, has been repeatedly bombed with cluster muntions, illegally under international law.  This afternoon a historic Armenian Church in Shushi was repeatedly bombed, injuring several Russian journalists.

More reports of Syrian mercenaries joining the fight for the Azeris while theere are also reports of ethnic Armenians from the diaspora joining Armenian armed forces to fight, from Lebanon, Greece and the USA.

Putin was asked for his thoughts on the war, which he called a tragedy and urged a ceasefire.  He reiterated Russia's alliance with Armenia, although this does not apply to the conflict in Karabakh.

[ICTChris]

Talks have begun between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbijan in Moscow, convened by the Russian foreign ministry.  At the same time President Aliyev of Azerbijan gave a hugely belligerent address to the nation, essentially vowing to continue the war until all of Karabakh is 'liberated'.  There are strong rumours there will be a temporary truce to exchange bodies and prisoners.

Azeri forces have made several statements about settlements and cities they have taken, which are then contradicted by the Armenian side.  It's very hard to work out what is going on but it does seem that some territory in the South has been retaken by the Azeris.  

Here is some footage from the conflict, I think I've avoided any that show deaths or bodies

 

[welshbairn]

Did Azerbaijan just attack out of the blue as a straightforward land grab, or have tensions been bubbling up recently? Hard to find out much about it though admittedly I haven't done much looking. I have some idea of the historical context, just curious about why now? It reminds me a bit of the Argentinian invasion of the Falklands. 

[ICTChris]

Did Azerbaijan just attack out of the blue as a straightforward land grab, or have tensions been bubbling up recently? Hard to find out much about it though admittedly I haven't done much looking. I have some idea of the historical context, just curious about why now? It reminds me a bit of the Argentinian invasion of the Falklands. 

There was a four day war in 2016 and periodic exchanges of artillery fire over the years. In the years since the 1994 ceasefire Azerbaijan has hugely expanded their military - the Azeri military budget is higher than the total GDP of Armenia - and there has always been big support for war in Azerbaijan. In Armenia, there has been some intransigence about any negotiations which you could argue has made conflict inevitable. The two sides haven’t actually met since 2000.

Regarding why the war broke out now, I’m not really sure. There is talk that Azerbaijan is facing a severe economic recession due to Covid as well as accusations of corruption against high profile officials. Armenia went through a democratic revolution in 2018 with the removal of a kleptocratic government and that maybe made Azerbaijan think they were weakened or distracted. I read an article today that said Azerbaijan saw the Covid pandemic as distracting world powers and allowing them to use force to get territory back.

[welshbairn]

9 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

 

There was a four day war in 2016 and periodic exchanges of artillery fire over the years. In the years since the 1994 ceasefire Azerbaijan has hugely expanded their military - the Azeri military budget is higher than the total GDP of Armenia - and there has always been big support for war in Azerbaijan. In Armenia, there has been some intransigence about any negotiations which you could argue has made conflict inevitable. The two sides haven’t actually met since 2000.

Regarding why the war broke out now, I’m not really sure. There is talk that Azerbaijan is facing a severe economic recession due to Covid as well as accusations of corruption against high profile officials. Armenia went through a democratic revolution in 2018 with the removal of a kleptocratic government and that maybe made Azerbaijan think they were weakened or distracted. I read an article today that said Azerbaijan saw the Covid pandemic as distracting world powers and allowing them to use force to get territory back.

 

Could be the oil price crash hit them too. Nothing like a wee war to keep the proles of your back.

[ICTChris]

[ICTChris]

This article gives a good background - https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/why-are-armenia-azerbaijan-heading-to-war-nagorno-karabakh/

[ICTChris]

Ceasefire announced by Lavrov after more than ten hours of talks. It’s for 72 house but agreements made for talks to take place under the previous structure (chaired by Russia, US and France).

I doubt the fighting is over tbh but it’s a start.

[vikingTON]

On 05/10/2020 at 01:00, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

New Caledonia bottle it again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-54410059

Caledonia: Nature's Shitebags

[ICTChris]

Ceasefire announced by Lavrov after more than ten hours of talks. It’s for 72 house but agreements made for talks to take place under the previous structure (chaired by Russia, US and France).

I doubt the fighting is over tbh but it’s a start.

Ceasefire has barely happened. Shelling of civilian areas in Karabakh has continued and there are battles over the town of Hadrut, with allegations that Azeri and Turkish special forces infiltrated the town and killed civilians. Armenian forces have attacked the Azeri city of Ganja with rockets, causing severe damage to civilian areas.

It seems likely that the conflict will escalate now. You have to wonder what the reaction will be from Russia to their ceasefire being basically ignored.

[ICTChris]

The conflict in Karabakh continues but there seems to be a slight deescalation in that we haven’t seen quite as much shelling of civlianareas. There are still artillery battles and fighting between troops both in the North and South of the territory. If you search Bars Media on YouTube, they have produced some short films on the Armenian side. I won’t link to them as some feature very graphic footage of dead Azeri soldiers.

Current analysis estimates that Azerbaijan have taken control of around 3% of the territory controlled by Armenians, much of it in the South. There are conflicting claims about this though, with some outlets claiming that Azeri troops take photographs of villages they claim to occupy and then withdraw. It’s very difficult to quantify.

Azeri President Aliyev and Turkish President Erdogan have both denied that Syrians are fighting in Azeribijan but it’s pretty clear they are and that hundreds of them have been killed. One journalist quoted fighters as saying that the conflict is far worse than Syria and the attrition rate of the mercenaries is so high that many prospective recruits in Syria are refusing to go.

In a more geopolitical line, Russia has bombed several of the Syrian training camps preparing fighters for Karabakh.

[welshbairn]

More on the Syrian mercenaries here..

Deaths of Syrian mercenaries show how Turkey, Russia could get sucked into Nagorno-Karabakh conflict 

[Detournement]

The Bolivian elections are this week.

The USA seem to have a lot of the ground NGO type operators on the ground working to steal it again but the indigenous groups and trade unions have shown incredible strength and solidarity over the past 12 months and they won't be easily defeated. 

Edited October 15, 2020 by Detournement

[ICTChris]

I checked my Twitter list for updates on the conflict and there have been some videos of Armenian POWs being killed by Azeris leaked. Other videos show Azeri officers beheading prisoners near Hadrut, a contested town in the south of Karabakh. There were atrocities like this in earlier conflicts but one thing that really hits home about it is that the defenders of these villages are mainly the men who live there and one of the POWs killed on video was an elderly man from the town.

The Azeri MoD has said that these videos are staged by Armenians but it’s fairly obvious they are genuine. Its pretty clear that Armenians and Azeris will never live alongside each other in Karabakh, at least in any foreseeable future. Truly a tragedy.

[NotThePars]

Kanye's tweeting about it