Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[welshbairn]

Turkey's divide is like a lot of places these days, a socially conservative, often religious and rural, working class, versus an urban ,more liberal, secular and western leaning middle and wealthier working class. The elites and the military are solidly in the second bit, and the military have generally decided who gets to run things ever since Ataturk, they've had at least two attempts to overthrow Erdogan who is solidly in the first. It's not a battle between good and evil. I just think any politician who stays in power for much more than about 10 years goes mental and Erdogan is no exception.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Turkey's divide is like a lot of places these days, a socially conservative, often religious and rural, working class, versus an urban ,more liberal, secular and western leaning middle and wealthier working class. The elites and the military are solidly in the second bit, and the military have generally decided who gets to run things ever since Ataturk, they've had at least two attempts to overthrow Erdogan who is solidly in the first. It's not a battle between good and evil. I just think any politician who stays in power for much more than about 10 years goes mental and Erdogan is no exception.

I agree with that except for the idea that the urban working class are wealthier than the rural working class and they then vote differently due to that. I think its that the labour movements which sprung up last century were centred around urban heavy industry. Therefore unionisation and a general class consciousness became common among the urban working class. The rural working class instead held onto the idea that their fortunes were tied to the beneficence of their local land and property owners. A way of thinking carried over from feudalism. Such thinking chimes with natural support for a strongman figure in modern politics. 

Turkey is a bit different. The Marshall Plan was directed in a way that viewed the US-oriented bloc in Europe as a whole. Different parts were to provide different products needed by that whole. Car manufacturing in Germany was famously pumped with money to build it up. Turkey was decided upon to provide much of the food so Marshall Plan funds were to be spent solely on building up Turkish agriculture. That meant urban heavy industry didn't develop in Turkish cities until much later than it had done in western Europe and therefore the corresponding labour movement only came much later also.

Urban industrialisation only happened in the 1960s and the labour movement only began making waves in the 1970s. Bad timing, as that was at the height of the Cold War and the US grip on Turkey was far stronger than on western Europe. The Turkish state really smashed the organised left hard and the death knell for it was the military coup of 1980. The 1980s and 1990s brought neoliberal globalisation and the resultant massive drop in living standards for much of the Turkish working class. With the political left eradicated, Islamists were the only community activists during this time. Erdogan was an islamist himeslf at this point and has said he even visited brothels during that time (not as a client but to spread the idea among society's disaffected that islamists were on their side). He then set up his AKP, not an islamist partly but Islamic enough to harvest that goodwill built up in both the urban and rural working class.

(Source for some of that opinion: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/joac.12501 )

[Guest]

Going to a head-to-head vote in a fortnight's time but its in the bag for Erdoğan. He's already ahead and he'll now pick up most of the votes of the eliminated candidate too.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/15/turkey-election-runoff-erdogan-first-round-lead-president-kemal-klcdaroglu

[TxRover]

On 24/04/2023 at 13:03, welshbairn said:

The news about British troops landing in an Eastern Sudan port raises the prospect of direct conflict with the Wagner group who are trying to establish a Russian naval base, partly to transport their gold from a deal with the RSF side of the current hostilities.

Catching up on this thread and…wait a second, this isn’t some smug liberal story or the U.S. is pulling the strings exposé! You can’t be posting this kind of factual story here.

[SlipperyP]

The people of Thailand have spoken...

The lower house, which had 500 seats up for grabs on Sunday has been finalised.

The young 'Move Forward Party' coming out on top with 151 seats.  They have decided to form a coalition with other parties to give a total of 310 seat.

All good 310 of 500. nae just wait.

The bad guys, Military & the Royal Elite parties still have a trick up their sleeve.

They changed the constitution when they rigged the last election in 2019 to hand pick (non elected) 250 senators from the Military for the higher house. Who all have a vote to see who the next Prime Minister is going to be....

Giving the good guys 310 to the bad guys 440

2 months we will have to wait before the result will be official. This will give the Military time to  disband/ disqualify  the good guys, as they did after the last election.

The leader of the Move Forward Party winning speech was class. 'The people have won, now let us govern, or else'

Let the tanks roll  Coup #12 on it's way (since 1933), sometime this or next year.

I really hope I'm wrong,  for the future of my and many other children here.

Edited May 17, 2023 by SlipperyP

[dirty dingus]

2 hours ago, SlipperyP said:

The people of Thailand have spoken...

The lower house, which had 500 seats up for grabs on Sunday has been finalised.

The young 'Move Forward Party' coming out on top with 151 seats.  They have decided to form a coalition with other parties to give a total of 310 seat.

All good 310 of 500. nae just wait.

The bad guys, Military & the Royal Elite parties still have a trick up their sleeve.

They changed the constitution when they rigged the last election in 2019 to hand pick (non elected) 250 senators from the Military for the higher house. Who all have a vote to see who the next Prime Minister is going to be....

Giving the good guys 310 to the bad guys 440

2 months we will have to wait before the result will be official. This will give the Military time to  disband/ disqualify  the good guys, as they did after the last election.

The leader of the Move Forward Party winning speech was class. 'The people have won, now let us govern, or else'

Let the tanks roll  Coup #12 on it's way (since 1933), sometime this or next year.

I really hope I'm wrong,  for the future of my and many other children here.

I left on the day of the election and my friends who were voting were all going for the Move Forward Party. If the coup takes place it will make the red shirt protests in 2013 look  like a may day parade. Hopefully a few cooler religious heads and less militant army guys speak up for democracy.

[SlipperyP]

56 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

I left on the day of the election and my friends who were voting were all going for the Move Forward Party. If the coup takes place it will make the red shirt protests in 2013 look  like a may day parade. Hopefully a few cooler religious heads and less militant army guys speak up for democracy.

This is  it....there is no fucking about democracy anymore, the people have had enough.

Since 2014 I have personally witnessed.. 

Locking children up because they spoke about the monarchy, killing students because they ask the question, interrogating villages because they had a red shirt on. Blowing up the famers fields welfare, buy rockets for the military, then buy rice from China in exchange. We are angry   

Subs, fucking subs....Submarines that are getting bought from China, 1950 style......we don't have deep water to hide a sub ffs millions and millions of baht.......it only the start.. #

 

[Zetterlund]

This would have been unthinkable not so long ago.

 

[SlipperyP]

Update in Thailand.

The good guys now have 316 and maybe 14 senators.

330 to 420

Biggest hurdle is the 112 law (lese majeste) that the Move Forward Party  want to change.

Very touchy subject, I'll leave it at that.

Edited May 20, 2023 by SlipperyP

[vikingTON]

China's Communist Party leadership may be influenced by Mao, states an academic:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/21/china-expert-chris-marquis-tech-crackdown-xi-maoism

In other earth shattering discoveries, bears are found to shit in the woods and Western theologians reach a stunning conclusion about the Pope's religious confession. 

[TONTROOPER]

3 hours ago, virginton said:

China's Communist Party leadership may be influenced by Mao, states an academic:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/21/china-expert-chris-marquis-tech-crackdown-xi-maoism

In other earth shattering discoveries, bears are found to shit in the woods and Western theologians reach a stunning conclusion about the Pope's religious confession   persuasion.....(he's no a *** surely tae f**k!)

..... give you that one VT..... 

Edited May 22, 2023 by TONTROOPER

[Guest]

Seeing as there's been some Turkish election interest in this thread, here's something tangentially related. Hakan Şükür was a funny player. I remember his goals for Galatasaray in the 2000 UEFA Cup and for Turkey in Euro 2000 but then I also remember him looking half asleep at the 2002 world cup. He's since been "unpersoned" by Erdoğan due to being a high profile Gülenist. Fetullah Gülen was for a long time a fellow traveller of Erdoğan. Both figures rode a wave of Islamic populism that gained traction in the 2000s. Many Turks were disaffected by the 1990s downturn caused by the political establishment's embrace of neoliberal economics. The Islamic populists successfully positioned themselves to become the beneficiaries of the backlash. Later, once their wider movement had become the dominant power in Turkey, Gülen and Erdoğan fell out. Gülen and his highest profile activists all reside in USA now. The ridiculous basketballer, Enes Freedom, among them. Anyway, Şükür's story:

Edited May 22, 2023 by FreedomFarter

[welshbairn]

Palace intrigue in Morocco.

The mystery of Morocco’s missing king. In 2018 a German kickboxer befriended Mohammed VI. The monarch has rarely been seen since.

You'll probably need this: https://www.removepaywall.com/

 

[ICTChris]

There Has been heavy fighting between Iranian border guards and the Afghan Taliban. Videos of the Taliban moving equipment to the area of fighting have been published. Not sure what started the fighting but feels like it has the potential to escalate.

[Guest]

From February's Jack Teixeira leaks but only reported on now. 

https://twitter.com/jlosc9/status/1662082215159779329

Edited May 28, 2023 by FreedomFarter

[doulikefish]

Blackout lifted Erdogan ahead but Turkish media makes the beeb seem neutral,here is "how you can vote today seemingly"

[doulikefish]

About 85% counted Erdogan still ahead anywhere between 52-48% to 50.4 to 49.6% according to the various agency's 

[sophia]

4 hours ago, doulikefish said:

About 85% counted Erdogan still ahead anywhere between 52-48% to 50.4 to 49.6% according to the various agency's 

Despite the pre-election narrative, it looks like one more term and we'll see what the future hold's

 

[Thane of Cawdor]

49 minutes ago, sophia said:

Despite the pre-election narrative, it looks like one more term and we'll see what the future hold's

 

Let's hope it involves proofreaders in tattoo parlours.

[jagfox]

https://twitter.com/RTErdogan/status/1662917407831105538?t=9FtL8IOIAAqsBvKjhcS7dQ&s=09.

"Let the century of Turkiye begin."