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Geopolitics in the 2020s.


dorlomin

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1 hour ago, Savage Henry said:

Glenn Greenwald is crying into his corn flakes as we type. 

Greenwald's friend Marielle Franco was murdered by a pro Bolsnonaro paramilitary. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/30/brazil-jair-bolsonaro-marielle-franco-murder-suspects

Bolsnaro's government threatened Greenwald with prison. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/21/glenn-greenwald-charged-cybercrime-brazil

Greenwald campaigned to get Lula out of prison. 

 

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It's very difficult to be this wrong.

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Bibi Netanyahu is back in power in Israel. 

The desire of the dominant blocs of voters in so many countries to be ruled by openly corrupt, racist fat guys is remarkable. Bolsonaro would probably have won if he was a bit heartier looking. Boris and Trump are coming back for sure. 

It's probably just people voting for their mirror image. Like me voting for Jez and his guns. 

 

Edited by Detournement
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On 03/11/2022 at 19:19, Detournement said:

Bibi Netanyahu is back in power in Israel. 

The desire of the dominant blocs of voters in so many countries to be ruled by openly corrupt, racist fat guys is remarkable. Bolsonaro would probably have won if he was a bit heartier looking. Boris and Trump are coming back for sure. 

It's probably just people voting for their mirror image. Like me voting for Jez and his guns. 

 

All while Brazil, Israel and Ukraine join to give Team America hauners at the UN. 

Speaking of which, check the absolute, fucking brass neck of this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/04/us-accuses-russia-and-china-of-protecting-north-korea-from-un

Quote

You don’t get to abandon Security Council responsibilities because the DPRK might sell you weapons to fuel your war of aggression in Ukraine, or because you think they make a good regional buffer to the United States,” the US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, told the council, referring to Russia and China.

Unless it's America's own client state in the Middle East of course, which has never been condemned by the Security Council

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Employment data is very good in the US, but other data is awful. A recession seems likely. While the same warning lights in Europe and the UK and the same rising interest rates making fiscal loosening harder, as our previous PM found out with bells on. The only real option is to swallow a surge in inflation with lose monetary policy but inflation then may become structural. 

There is just so much going on right now its hard to keep up. But a global slow down is almost guaranteed without adjusting for Chinas magic GDP numbers. This will affect the developed world. 

Energy prices and food will affect the developing as we see with protests and unrest in places like Iran. 

The question is how restrictions on fertiliser supply will see global food supply chains in late northern hemisphere spring and thus food supply to least developed nations. 

Doomers are predicting majors famines (Again). More likely it will be chain reactions of instability like 2008 or 2011. 

 

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Just found out about this Brittney Griner story. She's a top basketball player, multi All Star, double Olympic gold medalist, et cetera. They caught her at a Moscow airport with cannabis oil and gave her nine years in jail. The US are trying to negotiate a prisoner exchange and are willing to set free Viktor Bout, who was largely the basis for Nicholas Cage's character in Lord of War.

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2 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

Just found out about this Brittney Griner story. She's a top basketball player, multi All Star, double Olympic gold medalist, et cetera. They caught her at a Moscow airport with cannabis oil and gave her nine years in jail. The US are trying to negotiate a prisoner exchange and are willing to set free Viktor Bout, who was largely the basis for Nicholas Cage's character in Lord of War.

I thought the exchange was sorted a couple of months ago, not sure which side is stalling. There was supposed to be an ex-military Yank caught with dodgy data in Moscow as well in the exchange. Griner had less than a gram of cannabis oil in vaping cartridges. I wonder if Bout's got some enemies in Russia who'd rather let him rot.

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In the next day or so we will hit 8 billion living people 

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

Currently about 60% of the world is Asian. By 2100 it will be something like 60% African. 

Total_Fertility_Rate_Map_by_Country.svg

 

But those will be issues for the 2040s, for this decade its more about lack of children across Europe and east Asia and the economic consequences of that. For this decade its the lack of people in their 20s in many advanced economies and people ticking over from being huge buyers of government debt (via their pensions) in their 50s to sellers as they hit their mid 60s and no longer pay into a pension scheme but begin selling assets to receive money from that pension scheme. This may drive an ending of cheap debt. No cheap debt will see equities decline and a possible bear market. We are already seeing property decline so the turbulence is likely already underway. 

Xi is stepping up the rhetoric on Taiwan. Some speculate that is down to Chinese fears that instead of them sailing past the US as the worlds largest economy in this decade. They will stagnate and their moment to grab the island will pass. There property crash is so huge that many believe the state will not allow to happen. 

Anyway for the moment lets wait to celebrate living human no 8 billion. 

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63647366

Quote

 

"No one should be under any illusion about the breadth and variety of the threats we face in 2022," Mr McCallum told an audience inside Thames House, the security service's London headquarters.

He warned the biggest shifts his service was seeing came in threats posed by other states who were "not squeamish about the tactics they deploy".

Iran projected threats "directly" in the UK through its "aggressive intelligence services", he said.

This included ambitions to kidnap or even kill British or UK-based people perceived as enemies of the regime, he said.

 

The pesky Iranians might even overthrow a popular head of state in a coup, to protect its imperial oil concessions! 

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  • 2 weeks later...

There seems to be rumblings about Assange being freed. The Australian PM and all the big corporate papers have come out for it in the last week. 

With a second Biden term looking possible at the moment there are probably people in the Whitehouse who want to get rid of this problem rather than leave it as unflushed turd for their replacements in 2025. 

There has also probably never been a worse time for him to die in prison in terms of NATO looking bad internationally. 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

There is a significant chance that conflict is brewing again in Ngorno Karabakh. Azerbaijani “environmental activists” have blockaded the Lachin Corridor(the last road linking Armenian populated Ngorno Karabakh with Armeni proper) for the last few days and in the last day or so gas has been cut off to the Armenian population in Karabakh. Temperatures are freezing and the conditions for the 120,000 Armenians in the territory are very poor - surgeries have been cancelled and power is off.

Armenia have said they expect an announcement soon from Russia, who still have peacekeepers stationed in the region Post 2020 war but appear relatively powerless to do anything.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 01/12/2022 at 15:16, Detournement said:

There seems to be rumblings about Assange being freed. The Australian PM and all the big corporate papers have come out for it in the last week. 

With a second Biden term looking possible at the moment there are probably people in the Whitehouse who want to get rid of this problem rather than leave it as unflushed turd for their replacements in 2025. 

There has also probably never been a worse time for him to die in prison in terms of NATO looking bad internationally. 

 

It's looking promising. 

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1 hour ago, Detournement said:

It's looking promising. 

One of the more shameful episodes in our (the UK's) recent history, amongst stiff competition.

It'll be interesting to see what Assange goes on to do if/when he's released, if he hasn't been permanently broken mentally.

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5 hours ago, Zetterlund said:

One of the more shameful episodes in our (the UK's) recent history, amongst stiff competition.

It'll be interesting to see what Assange goes on to do if/when he's released, if he hasn't been permanently broken mentally.

Snatched off a street within days would be my guess !

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Bolsorano supporters have stormed Brazilian Congress and are currently occupying the building. Lula has called in the National Guard. Lots of talk about some police standing back and refusing to stop the crowds when they turned violent. Who knows what happens now? Violent dispersal of the protests?

There are obvious parallels with the January 6 events but also unique factors about Brazilian society and politics involved as well.

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4 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Bolsorano supporters have stormed Brazilian Congress and are currently occupying the building. Lula has called in the National Guard. Lots of talk about some police standing back and refusing to stop the crowds when they turned violent. Who knows what happens now? Violent dispersal of the protests?

There are obvious parallels with the January 6 events but also unique factors about Brazilian society and politics involved as well.

Obviously the BBC is totally relaxed about these anti-democratic developments in a nation of 200M people, as they opened the 10pm news bulletin with yet another helping of the Fall Of The House Of Windsor.

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10 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Obviously the BBC is totally relaxed about these anti-democratic developments in a nation of 200M people, as they opened the 10pm news bulletin with yet another helping of the Fall Of The House Of Windsor.

Rioters cleared from most of the buildings they had occupied.

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