Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[ICTChris]

On 01/08/2022 at 20:38, ICTChris said:

Reports from Karabakh that Azerbijan has launched a new offensive in Karabakh.  Very sporadic reports that Azerbijan is attacking the Northern areas of Karabakh, currently still held by Armenian forces.  The 2020 war saw Azerbijan break through in the South of the territory and attack from there.  The Northern areas were seen as more heavily defended.  There are some videos fo Azeri armour being driven to the front, unconfirmed.

The Russian-Ukrainian war has a big part of what is happening.  Russia is now more reliant on the Azeri regime and Baku to move their products (oil and gas) to India.  Russian diplomats have made several visits to Baku, they have signed an intelligence pact with Azeribijan.  The Russian Ambassador also visited Shushi, captured by Azeri troops in the 2020 war.  In fact, IIRC President Aliyev was visiting the Kremlin on the day of the invasion. 

Russia is the main, and indeed, only significant ally the Armenians have.  Armenia have backed the Russian lead intervention in Kazakhstan earlier this year, sening special forces troops as part of the CSTO 'peacekeeping mission'.  They have abstained in international organisation votes against the invasion but haven't really backed it.  The Russian peacekeeping mission in Karabakh is clearly under pressure due to the resources focused on Ukraine.  In addition, rearming Armenian forces would only really be possible by Russia and clearly their new production of arms is going to be focused on their ongoing war.  

The fighting is apparently taking place around the Lachin corridor, the only remaining link between Karabakh and Armenia. Hazy reports of casualties at the moment, some word that there are soldiers killed.

The Karabakh authorities have said their soldiers are engaged and also that they are working with the Russian peacekeepers. The Lachin corridor is probably the key spot on the front line post 2020 and there are surely Russian troops in the area. So either they aren’t in a position to do anything or they are allowing the attacks to continue.

[The Other Foot]

Taiwan is the last vestige of pre-Communist China, and it's moral right to exist as an independent, fully-functioning democracy should be defended by those other fully-functioning democracies who have the relative strength to tell Xi Jinping that he's a bellend. 

[Theyellowbox]

55 minutes ago, The Other Foot said:

Taiwan is the last vestige of pre-Communist China, and it's moral right to exist as an independent, fully-functioning democracy should be defended by those other fully-functioning democracies who have the relative strength to tell Xi Jinping that he's a bellend. 

China sees Tiawan as double problem. Firstly, its the last remaining piece of a China they want to erase and secondly, it is a potential ideological threat as it represents an alternative China.

For as long as Chinese government can control what its people see, they can keep it together, but inevitably at some point, people will tire of the one party system. When they do, Tiawan might come into play.

They have fed to the population the line that Tiawan is China for so long, they cannot change it, so have to carry it through.

The other elephant in the room, especially in the UK is the Chineese ownership of a lot of the UK infrastructure and like Russia, large chunks of London. Additional ownership beyond a minority stake very difficult now, but doesn't fix the lax regulation on overseas ownership the UK has had for successive governments.

Final point, it's not an issue we should have with the Chineese people as such, who just get on with their lives like the rest of us, but the knotted system of politics. Unlike the Russian general public, the Chineese are about the nicest population you will meet in the world and would be horrified if they thought anyone thought otherwise. 

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, The Other Foot said:

Taiwan is the last vestige of pre-Communist China, and it's moral right to exist as an independent, fully-functioning democracy should be defended by those other fully-functioning democracies who have the relative strength to tell Xi Jinping that he's a bellend. 

The freedom-loving West abandoned Taiwan's claim to sovereignty more than fifty years ago m8. The idea that they can somehow reverse ferret from that hard-headed deal now that the PRC is a serious economic rival is utter folly. 

If someone could let some adults into the room to run the foreign policy of English-speaking states in this century, it'd be very much appreciated. Because these constant reversals of policy based on moralising claptrap is going to end in World War Three. 

 

[DiegoDiego]

I’m just spamming this thread now but it’s being reported the US have killed Ayman Al-Zawahiri, current head of Al Queda.
no-one has confirmed manner or place of death, rumours it was Afghanistan via drone strike.

Seems like it was in Kabul, showing that even with no formal military presence there the US can still f**k you up if they want.

[ICTChris]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

The fighting is apparently taking place around the Lachin corridor, the only remaining link between Karabakh and Armenia. Hazy reports of casualties at the moment, some word that there are soldiers killed.

The Karabakh authorities have said their soldiers are engaged and also that they are working with the Russian peacekeepers. The Lachin corridor is probably the key spot on the front line post 2020 and there are surely Russian troops in the area. So either they aren’t in a position to do anything or they are allowing the attacks to continue.

A partial mobilisation has been declared in Karabakh (Armenian side).  There are lots of clips on social media of large numbers of military trucks in Azerbijan heading to the area.  Could be a major conflict or will de-escalate quickly.  It feels like a more prolonged conflict this time than previous post-2020 flare ups.

ETA - some videos of TB2 strikes on Armenian positions are now on Twitter.  This is a violation of the ceasefire agreement.  Azerbijan counter this by saying that what they call "illegal Armenian armed groups" remain in Karabakh.

Edited August 3, 2022 by ICTChris

[Detournement]

I was reading that Turkey essentially run the war for the Azeris and they have troops on the ground. That Erdogan is always up to something.

[ICTChris]

5 hours ago, Detournement said:

I was reading that Turkey essentially run the war for the Azeris and they have troops on the ground. That Erdogan is always up to something.

There is a joint Turkish-Russian co-ordination centre in Karabakh. I’m not sure if the Turks have troops fighting, they have advisors there and Turkish drones and other equipment were an important factor that helped Azerbijan in 2020. The Azeri President during the war in the 1980s and 1990s complained Turkey wouldn’t even give them an single helicopter but now they are much more assertive.

[LongTimeLurker]

On 03/08/2022 at 15:16, Theyellowbox said:

....Unlike the Russian general public, the Chineese are about the nicest population you will meet in the world and would be horrified if they thought anyone thought otherwise. 

Having spent quite a bit of time in both countries can't say I noticed much difference on that in either a good or a bad way. Was surrounded by stereotypical Adidas wearing gopniks while in transit at Dubai airport recently but only because it was easy to find a seat that way. Haven't run into them that much when I have been in Russia though.

[Enigma]

On 03/08/2022 at 14:55, DiegoDiego said:

On 01/08/2022 at 22:49, ICTChris said:

I’m just spamming this thread now but it’s being reported the US have killed Ayman Al-Zawahiri, current head of Al Queda.
no-one has confirmed manner or place of death, rumours it was Afghanistan via drone strike.

Seems like it was in Kabul, showing that even with no formal military presence there the US can still f**k you up if they want.

I do wonder if the Taliban were ‘in’ on it though, not that it would be admitted.

[Detournement]

This is destined to be part of a history exam in 100 years time.

[renton]

5 minutes ago, Detournement said:

This is destined to be part of a history exam in 100 years time.

Menstrual leave? 

[Detournement]

23 minutes ago, renton said:

Menstrual leave? 

Obviously because as a New European you need some middle class feminist content to balance out the Yellow Peril throwback racism. 

Edited August 11, 2022 by Detournement

[D Angelo Barksdale]

[ICTChris]

Interesting FT magazine article about the TB2 drone and its history.

https://www.ft.com/content/948605a1-cf6c-40ea-b403-9a97d72be2cf
 

 

[welshbairn]

36 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Interesting FT magazine article about the TB2 drone and its history.

https://www.ft.com/content/948605a1-cf6c-40ea-b403-9a97d72be2cf
 

 

Can't even get it on 12footladder, any chance of C+Ping?

[ICTChris]

Will anyone ever storm Downing Street or even Bute House?

 

[Turkmenbashi]

On 28/08/2022 at 14:48, welshbairn said:

Can't even get it on 12footladder, any chance of C+Ping?

I find when I copy + paste the title into google for FT articles - I can always read the article on FT afterwards - but not when I click on links from P&B

[Dunning1874]

7 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Will anyone ever storm Downing Street or even Bute House?

 

Unlike Sri Lanka, Iraqis dicking about in a swimming pool does seem to be escalating dangerously towards the outbreak of another civil war.

[ICTChris]

Just now, Dunning1874 said:

Unlike Sri Lanka, Iraqis dicking about in a swimming pool does seem to be escalating dangerously towards the outbreak of another civil war.

Yeah I feel bad about my flippant post.