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Geopolitics in the 2020s.


dorlomin

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I expect one of two things will happen.

a) Nothing will happen, and the west will congratulate one another for deterring an invasion which was never going to happen.

b) Some nasty elements in the Ukrainian military, along with their CIA advisors, will start flattening a few villages in the east of the country, forcing a response from local forces along with a suspiciously large number of reinforcements. This will be the 'invasion' we've been told is definitely going to happen.

I think a) is most likely. The western powers can pretend they've done something good, millions of dollars worth of new weapons have been thrown into another conflict zone, and nobody dies. Everyone's a winner.

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3 hours ago, Theyellowbox said:

Not the only reasons, but certainly a part of it. Russia wouldn't be going to Ukraine for anything economically, so it is all about show of strength domestically and internationally.

The Donbass and Black Earth agricultural zone were two of the lynchpins of the Soviet economy. It is driven primarily by strategic security interests but the economic value cannot be ignored. 

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What is the economic value of the Donbas now? I assume that it’s dropped dramatically due to the conflict degrading and damaging the economic assets of the region. I suppose even if that were the case the coal isn’t going anywhere fast.

I remember reading about the strange relations between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine has started importing more coal to replace the coal they had been producing in the Donbas, one of the main suppliers is… Russia.  🤷‍♂️ 

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53 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

What is the economic value of the Donbas now? I assume that it’s dropped dramatically due to the conflict degrading and damaging the economic assets of the region. I suppose even if that were the case the coal isn’t going anywhere fast.

I remember reading about the strange relations between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine has started importing more coal to replace the coal they had been producing in the Donbas, one of the main suppliers is… Russia.  🤷‍♂️ 

They've got the deepest coal mines on the planet in the Donbas, I doubt it's very profitable.

Edited by welshbairn
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4 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Government overthrown in Burkina Faso.

Classic African coup announcement on Burkina Faso TV.

 

95DD0CCA-FD80-40DA-98DB-4036F81260E2.png

Bit of World Service coverage on how it kicked off on Sunday. No comment on their angle, I know nothing about Burkina Faso to judge them on it, but the early segment was interesting, a freelancer and his mate decide to ride up to the main military barracks on their bike to ask what's going on, in the middle of a mutiny attempt and the success or failure yet to be determined. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172xv5kbpz1ntk

Bit more from Sunday..

 

Edited by welshbairn
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Reports from Washington that the US are going to deploy 1-2k troops to NATO allies in the Baltics in the event of Russian military action in Ukraine, along with war planes and ships.

Obama's former Russia advisor Evely  Farkas has said that the US should supply an 'Iron Dome' style missile shield to Ukraine.  I think there are other people who know more about this stuff on here but I don't think that something like the Iron Dome would work against Russian artillery and missile attacks.  Farkas also said that the US should release information on Putin and other Russian officials secret bank accounts etc, which begs the question, if we have this information why not release it anyway?  I doubt it would make any difference to anyone.  "Former Soviet leader having secret bank account" is not exactly an earth shattering revelation.

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11 hours ago, ICTChris said:

What is the economic value of the Donbas now? I assume that it’s dropped dramatically due to the conflict degrading and damaging the economic assets of the region. I suppose even if that were the case the coal isn’t going anywhere fast.

I remember reading about the strange relations between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine has started importing more coal to replace the coal they had been producing in the Donbas, one of the main suppliers is… Russia.  🤷‍♂️ 

The big problems in the Ukraine and the other former satellite states is that as much as 55% to 60% of the populations are in fact Russian or identify as Russian due to relocation policies during the Soviet era.

I've had many conversations over the years in the Baltic states with the "locals" and although our media likes to make out that they all hate the Russians and feel persecuted etc, the reality is in fact much, much different.

I suppose in some ways it's a bit like Scotland where it's almost a 50/50 split in whether or not we regard ourselves as Scottish or British.

The thing that probably annoys me the most is the double standards and hypocrisy of the likes  of Britain and especially the US, where they basically "take out" any leader / regime of any foreign country that they deem to be socialist or communist irrespective of whether they've been legally elected or not and then parachute in a puppet Government to serve their needs.

Another "double standard" is the Cuban missile crisis which in reality wasn't much different to what Nato are doing right now with Russia. I'm also pretty sure that if Russia suddenly became pals with Ireland and Mexico and decided to set up Naval and Air force bases in said countries that the UK and USA would just sit back and say, "No probs Vlad, fill yer boots sir as you're perfectly entitled from a "defensive" viewpoint".

Yeah, right........

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The big problems in the Ukraine and the other former satellite states is that as much as 55% to 60% of the populations are in fact Russian or identify as Russian due to relocation policies during the Soviet era.

Where are you getting those stats from? Census data, which is self-reported, doesn't have any much over 25%.
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Ethnic Russians make up about 15-20% of the Ukrainian population, although the last census was twenty years ago.  I doubt it's changed significantly since then.

It's also a mistake to say that ethnic Russians are duty bound to support Putin or a Russian invasion.  Certainly, Russian speakers are not some kind of pro-Russian bloc.  I believe most of the Ukrainian militias formed during the initial conflict, some of which were made up of extreme nationalists, were Russian speakers.  

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