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Geopolitics in the 2020s.


dorlomin

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Certain functionaries of the old Empire have been furious ever since Gorbachev and Yeltsin allowed it to secede.
There are also strategic reasons for expansion. Barring the Caucuses, Russia has no easily defensible borders. When foreign powers start gaining influence over and passing troops in buffer regions that's an understandable worry.

There are also many Russians in those states. 17% of people living in Ukraine and 23% of those in Kazakhstan are Russian. Most of which live in these indefensible border areas.
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Situation in Kazakhstan seems to have stabilised, with CSTO troops withdrawing after the protests were suppressed by the Kazakh state forces.

Saw this article about the billions of assets controlled by former President Nazarbayev.

https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/the-nazarbayev-billions-how-kazakhstans-leader-of-the-nation-controls-vast-assets-through-charitable-foundations
 

There was a hilariously staged interview with him on state TV, it was clearly edited and cut, I can’t find it tho.

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/20/us-russia-ukraine-government-sanctions 

America putting sanctions on Ukranian elected officials for communicating with Russia. 

Silly Ukranians thinking they are an independent state. It reminds me of Pompeo making a public statement that the USA would not allow Corbyn to become PM regardless of election results. 

 

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Tom Tugendhat on C4 news claiming that the plucky Brits' anti-tank weapons will "allow Ukraine to fight for itself" and claiming that Ukraine will turn into a partisan hotbed after the Russians sweep in.

Utterly demented. The world's shittest Rambo. 

Edited by vikingTON
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11 hours ago, virginton said:

Tom Tugendhat on C4 news claiming that the plucky Brits' anti-tank weapons will "allow Ukraine to fight for itself" and claiming that Ukraine will turn into a partisan hotbed after the Russians sweep in.

Utterly demented. The world's shittest Rambo. 

Tugendhat is MI6.

Whatever he says is the official line. 

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1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

If you are interested in what the UK has sent Ukraine, this video is an explainer.

AFAIK it's the Americans who are sending Javelin, we're sending the Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapon, (NLAW). I'm presuming they're different in more than name. @renton ?

P.S. Sorry, it's all explained in the video I think.

Edited by welshbairn
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1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

If you are interested in what the UK has sent Ukraine, this video is an explainer.

 

 

We've not sent them Javelin: not enough stock of our own, the US has been sending them a fair number since 2018 though.

We sent them NLAW - Javelin is a true fire and forget missile, 3-4km range. It's too heavy and large to comfortably deploy at the lowest echelons of troops so tends to be used by specialist anti tank platoons. 

We sent them NLAW, a much more lightweight, single use weapon. Unlike the Javelin where the launcher is reusable, the NLAW tube gets chucked after one go. Its a much shorter range (about 800m vs. 3000m for Javelin) which is fine as its guidance system isn't really a true lock on and follow type. It's Predicted Line Of Sight. You look down the sights for a few seconds and NLAW computes where the target will have moved to for a given distance away. Obviously the longer the range, the higher the error.

It's still apparently pretty reliable though. Like Javelin it attacks the roof where the armour protection of the tank is weakest. Both use HEAT tandem warheads (that's a fairly esoteric realm of material physics where you use an explosive to compress and turn a metal liner into a fast moving jet that can punch a hole)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BGjGkmQcPwU

Its less than half the weight of Javelin, more generally compact and can be deployed at squad level. The advantage of that is that any advancing armoured force will have it's artillery controllers looking for Javelin posts to hit early. Since NLAW is deployed so broadly it forces the advancing armour to engage everything. Its also pretty good for firing from inside buildings and urban combat.

Due to its simplicity its also much quicker to deploy as you don't need that much specialised training to use it vs. Javelin. They are complimentary systems - the UK uses NLAW at squad level  Javelin at company level and then you have the heavier vehicle mounted stand off AT missiles like Brimstone and Hellfire.

Edited by renton
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10 minutes ago, renton said:

It's still apparently pretty reliable though. Like Javelin it attacks the roof where the armour protection of the tank is weakest. Both use HEAT tandem warheads (that's a fairly esoteric realm of material physics where you use an explosive to compress and turn a metal liner into a fast moving jet that can punch a hole)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BGjGkmQcPwU

Cheers. It's worth clicking translate on the comments under the video..

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Good post.

I read an article, I think it was by Rob Lee who I quoted above, stating that the most effective military assistance to countries is training as you can train them to use your advanced weapons and then, if the situation arises, you can transfer them weapons.

Diplomatic talks today between the US and Russia in Geneva.

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Good post.
I read an article, I think it was by Rob Lee who I quoted above, stating that the most effective military assistance to countries is training as you can train them to use your advanced weapons and then, if the situation arises, you can transfer them weapons.
Diplomatic talks today between the US and Russia in Geneva.
Rob Lee, the midfielder General ???
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10 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Good post.

I read an article, I think it was by Rob Lee who I quoted above, stating that the most effective military assistance to countries is training as you can train them to use your advanced weapons and then, if the situation arises, you can transfer them weapons.

Diplomatic talks today between the US and Russia in Geneva.

Yeah, the latest SDSR puts a lot of emphasis on training, mentoring and partnering with other nation's militaries via the new Security Force Assitance Brigade and new Ranger regiment, probably in an attempt to avoid if possible another mass of infantry trying to do counter insurgency work.

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1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

Long piece by Putin on why Russia and Ukraine belong together, with a serious vibe of "Ein Volk, ein Reich, ....." 

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

He repeatedly states he wants Ukraine to regain its sovereignty. Invading and absorbing it into Russia would be a funny way to go about this.

From the Kremlin to the Mail Online, I'm no fan of Peter Hitchens but his comments today pretty much sum up my take on the situation. 

Quote

If Vladimir Putin is stark, staring mad, then he will invade Ukraine. But I have seen little evidence he is. He is nasty, cruel, sinister, intolerant and many other things. But you do not remain in power in Moscow for so long if you are a lunatic.

If there is one single action which would be bound to destroy his regime and wreck Russia’s long-term hopes of recovering its position in Eastern Europe, it is an invasion of Ukraine.

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I think that Russia are more concerned with the situation in Ukraine now rather than some ethereal long term plan to regain Russian influence in Poland. Russia is concerned with the people in charge of Ukraine now, they want to change the direction of the country and they’ve tried to change it in a number of ways. The final way would be to invade or to use the phrase they’ve been using launch a “military technical response”.

One thing I’m interested in reading is an assessment of how Ukraine should attempt to defend itself. All assessments, and common sense, says they can’t defeat Russia but what are their best strategies for dealing with attack? What approach will they take, how can they protect their assets while inflicting maximum damage in Russian forces? With great difficulty I imagine.

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