ICTChris Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Interesting development is that the Kazakh President (I think they sacked the government this morning) has said he is appealing for Russian miltary assistance under the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) to counteract "terrorism". Fans of my increasingly strange posts on this thread will remember that Armenia, a fellow signatory to the CSTO, appealed to Russia for assistance after the border clashes between Armenian and Azeri troops in November. Under the treaty if the soverign territory of another signatory is attacked, that state can appeal for assitance from the others, similar to NATO article 5. In practice, this means smaller states appealing for help from Russia. Russia has been reluctant to assist and didn't provide any formal backing to Armenia, they brokered a ceasefire instead. It will be interesting to see what Russia does in a quite different scenario here. An additional complicating factor is the current build up of Russian forces near Ukraine. According to reports the military units usually based closest to the Russian- Kazakh border are currently at the border with Ukraine as part of the build up. However, an operation in Ukraine would be very different to one in Kazakhstan - Ukraine would be a war whereas Kazakhstan would be more like a policing mission, meaning they would need different troops. SInce the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan there have been increased military exercises held between Russian and Central Asian militaries which should mean that preparations for a rapid deployment are a bit easier. It's never easy to sort the truth from the rumour but there are some reports of Kazakh security forces joining the protesters. I can imagine if Russia sees a situation developing where there are defections from military units and think better of sending in troops to completely prop up a falling regime. Perhaps they will give him a house near where Yanukovych is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 (edited) DIfficult to verify but looks like the unrest in Kazakhstan is very serious. Some videos of soldiers/police joining the protesters emergring. Several security service buildings looted and weapons stolen. Gunfire exchanged in the street. Statues of the previous President being pulled down. Looks like it could end up very very bad. Edited January 5, 2022 by ICTChris 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Looking forward to A̶k̶m̶o̶l̶y̶, A̶k̶m̶o̶l̶i̶n̶s̶k̶, T̶s̶e̶l̶i̶n̶o̶g̶r̶a̶d̶, A̶k̶m̶o̶l̶a̶, A̶s̶t̶a̶n̶a̶, Nur-Sultan changing its name again. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said: Looking forward to A̶k̶m̶o̶l̶y̶, A̶k̶m̶o̶l̶i̶n̶s̶k̶, T̶s̶e̶l̶i̶n̶o̶g̶r̶a̶d̶, A̶k̶m̶o̶l̶a̶, A̶s̶t̶a̶n̶a̶, Nur-Sultan changing its name again. Going to need to get some emergency consultation from Sir Tony to ride this one out! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 28 minutes ago, ICTChris said: DIfficult to verify but looks like the unrest in Kazakhstan is very serious. Some videos of soldiers/police joining the protesters emergring. Several security service buildings looted and weapons stolen. Gunfire exchanged in the street. Statues of the previous President being pulled down. Looks like it could end up very very bad. I have read lots of books about Turkestan (what some people impolitely refer to as the 5 "stans") and I still have no idea what I should think of them. When the Soviet Union collapsed, some leaders presented themselves as the new national saviour even if they had just been the politburo appointee only yesterday. Also it seems their loyalty is to Russia mainly because it is convenient and they hate everybody else more. Also it seems their human rights are crap but they are still less shitty than the countries to the south. I could be wrong on all of this. Happy to know more. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 A Kazakh girl I know living in Finland says it's impossible for her to contact her family as all lines of communication have been shut. This gives me hope that a Kazakh girl I know in Kostanay isn't simply ignoring my belated New Year greetings and may still like me.Anyway, here's a photo of a ship I saw about 200km from Lake Balkhash in landlocked Kazakhstan. f**k knows how and why it got there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zetterlund Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Good thread covering the scenes as they happened over the last couple of days. This guy is an interesting follow for Russian-sphere goings on. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 CSTO sending a peacekeeping force, apparently. Little Green Men - deploy! One interesting side effect of this is that Bitcoin has dropped 4%. Kazakhstan hosts around 20% of Bitcoin mining activity. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theroadlesstravelled Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 9 hours ago, DiegoDiego said: A Kazakh girl I know living in Finland says it's impossible for her to contact her family as all lines of communication have been shut. This gives me hope that a Kazakh girl I know in Kostanay isn't simply ignoring my belated New Year greetings and may still like me. Anyway, here's a photo of a ship I saw about 200km from Lake Balkhash in landlocked Kazakhstan. f**k knows how and why it got there. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 CSTO troops are on their way, it’s apparently the Russian airborne troops who will be deploying. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 This is a fairly significant moment - it’s the first time the CSTO has deployed forces following a request from a member state. The other two known requests were turned down - when the Kyrgyzstan government requested help in 2010 during unrest in their country and when Armenia requested help last year during border conflict with Azerbaijan. The line being taken is that the protests are a result of outside interference hence the deployment. The deployment was announced via a Facebook post from Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashiniyan, who currently holds the chair of the CSTO. There is a big irony in all this - Pashiniyan came to power following a protest movement against the old, ex-Soviet leaders of Armenia. Also, he requested help against a clear aggressive action from Azerbaijan last year and was turned down and now has to authorise this, an intervention to a country in turmoil with no obvious external aggressor. Several CSTO states, notably Belarus, also sent weapons to Azerbaijan during the war in Karabakh. With friends like these etc, but Armenia can’t be picky and the Kremlin clearly know it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Can't be much fun being on the International Space Station and hearing about turmoil in the country that sends up your supplies. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 No idea who this guy is, seems to be a Ukrainian or Russian account who is tweeting a lot of videos from Kazakhstan. One impact of a Russian intervention will be to stop OMON or army forces defecting to the protesters. If they know they have that level of backing they will likely stick with it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 35 minutes ago, ICTChris said: This is a fairly significant moment - it’s the first time the CSTO has deployed forces following a request from a member state. The other two known requests were turned down - when the Kyrgyzstan government requested help in 2010 during unrest in their country and when Armenia requested help last year during border conflict with Azerbaijan. The line being taken is that the protests are a result of outside interference hence the deployment. The deployment was announced via a Facebook post from Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashiniyan, who currently holds the chair of the CSTO. There is a big irony in all this - Pashiniyan came to power following a protest movement against the old, ex-Soviet leaders of Armenia. Also, he requested help against a clear aggressive action from Azerbaijan last year and was turned down and now has to authorise this, an intervention to a country in turmoil with no obvious external aggressor. Several CSTO states, notably Belarus, also sent weapons to Azerbaijan during the war in Karabakh. With friends like these etc, but Armenia can’t be picky and the Kremlin clearly know it. Coincidentally 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 (edited) Journalists on the ground are saying that there are organised armed groups instigating the violence as happened in Ukraine with the Neo Nazi militias who were trained by Canada and the USA. I saw this RAND corp document being linked which seems similar to the PNAC document which predicted the war on terror from 9/11 onwards. I guess we will start hearing about Moldova later this year. Edited January 6, 2022 by Detournement 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 There has been a complete shutdown of comms in and out of Kazakhstan. What reports there are are slipping out on Telegram. There are reports of widespread looting in some major cities, with the government stating that there’s an ongoing anti terrorist operation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 An expression of concern about the situation in Kazakhstan from... the Taliban. https://mfa.gov.af/en/iea-is-closely-monitoring-situation-in-kazakhstan-as-a-close-neighbor-economic-partner-state-is-concerned-about-the-recent-unrest/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zetterlund Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 12 minutes ago, ICTChris said: An expression of concern about the situation in Kazakhstan from... the Taliban. https://mfa.gov.af/en/iea-is-closely-monitoring-situation-in-kazakhstan-as-a-close-neighbor-economic-partner-state-is-concerned-about-the-recent-unrest/ Bring in a Taliban peacekeeping force imo. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 The best thing about American fascism is how they just publish every daft idea they have. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zetterlund Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Another good thread on Kazakhstan. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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