Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[coprolite]

44 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Not sure what to make of a media landscape in which:

(i) the finally difficult to hide crisis in the global supply of cheap easily exploitable fossil fuels with high EROEI now fracking is understood on Wall St to be a financial bust,

(ii) grid parity for renewables achieved so that most new electricity generation capacity is based on that globally with several grid scale storage solutions at an advanced stage of development,

(iii) EV sales based on Li ion battery technology possibly entering S-curve growth over the next decade,

do not lead media commentators to ask some serious questions about whether Greta & Co maybe need to calm down a wee bit and move out of a pre-2007 credit crunch Al Gore vs Dubya era timewarp in which (i)-(iii) were not even close to being applicable yet. If you dumb down complex problems to a level understandable to people with an IQ of 90 and a faith rather than reason based way of looking at the world you wind up with a narrative that is tunnel-visioned and siloed away from reality.

No-one wants to tunnel-vision a silo

[Detournement]

Just found out Kenya and Somalia are feuding over maritime boundaries via this belter of a tweet.

 

[LongTimeLurker]

Somalia seem to have won.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/world-court-rule-kenya-somalia-sea-border-row-2021-10-12/

Saw a map of the rival claims in a tweet yesterday and Kenya were taking the piss with a horizontal line that clearly wasn't equidistant from the two countries the further out you get from the coast.

Edit: this one shows what I was describing.

 

Edited October 12, 2021 by LongTimeLurker

[Detournement]

Father's testicles are being used for conkers. 

[NotThePars]

On 12/10/2021 at 19:40, Detournement said:

Father's testicles are being used for conkers. 

Somalia is Mads and Kenya is Daniel Craig 

[Detournement]

 

Gianni Infantino truly loves the people of all nations. He should be in charge of the UN. 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

Eritrea, Africa's answer to North Korea, has just been elected onto the UN Human Rights Council:

 

[welshbairn]

Sudan coup leader taking questions from the media on Al Jazeera, after rambling speech claiming the PM is just stopping round at his place for a bit for his own protection.

[Detournement]

Israel have massively stepped up the ethnic cleansing in the West Bank since Bibi was removed.

[Detournement]

 

Absolutely vile.

[ICTChris]

First strike in the Donbas with a Turkish made drone, Ukrainian forces destroy a howitzer with a TB2. Drone diplomacy by Turkey.

 

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

First strike in the Donbas with a Turkish made drone, Ukrainian forces destroy a howitzer with a TB2. Drone diplomacy by Turkey.

 

I suspect that would be just a commercial decision by Turkey rather than geopolitical shenanigans. Good promotion for their arms industry but they're playing a careful game playing the Russians and Americans off each other. Doubt they give 2 fucks about Ukrainian sovereignty.

[vikingTON]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/02/bosnia-is-in-danger-of-breaking-up-warns-eus-top-official-in-the-state

[LongTimeLurker]

^^^probably just crying wolf to get people to pay attention. Republika Srpska is in a much worse position geostrategically in 2021 than it was in 1992. Last time around there was Republika Srpska Krajina occupying around 1/3 of Croatia's territory which initially had the upper hand militarily because of access to JNA weaponry. This time around Croatia fully controls all its territory and is a NATO and EU member. Last time around they were able to drive a narrow corridor from the Banja Luka area through Muslim-Croat majority areas to Serbia, but they lost that again post-Dayton to the Brcko District.

[welshbairn]

Bit of background on Dodik. 

https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/28/is-bosnia-s-milorad-dodik-using-genocide-denial-for-political-ends

[LongTimeLurker]

On 30/10/2021 at 13:39, welshbairn said:

I suspect that would be just a commercial decision by Turkey rather than geopolitical shenanigans. Good promotion for their arms industry but they're playing a careful game playing the Russians and Americans off each other. Doubt they give 2 fucks about Ukrainian sovereignty.

They do care about Nagorno-Karabakh and the Kurdish portions of northern Syria though where Russia is propping up their enemies militarily though so think there could be more than the commercial angle at work. Revenge is a dish that is best tasted cold.

[Detournement]

On 02/11/2021 at 13:17, LongTimeLurker said:

They do care about Nagorno-Karabakh and the Kurdish portions of northern Syria though where Russia is propping up their enemies militarily though so think there could be more than the commercial angle at work. Revenge is a dish that is best tasted cold.

It's a bit more complicated than that in Syria. The Kurds are in bed with the Americans not the Russians and the Jihadi enclave around Idlib is a problem of their own making and eventually they will need Assad to take it back. 

[LongTimeLurker]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

It's a bit more complicated than that in Syria. The Kurds are in bed with the Americans not the Russians...

To a significant extent but after Trump announced he was pulling American troops out it was the Syrian Army and the Russians that came to the rescue where the Kurds were concerned when they were facing a full scale invasion by Turkey:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria

After that Turkey had to use its drones against the Syrian Army when it looked like Idlib might fall:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Spring_Shield

and that was when their devastating potential became clear for all to see. Not just selling drones to Ukraine but allowing them to build a factory could tip the balance in Donbas in a big way in a similar manner to what happened in Nagorno-Karabakh:

 

[Detournement]

Who is Armenia in this situation though? If NATO via Turkey begin supplying drones to Ukraine then Russia will obviously respond in kind.

 

[renton]

2 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

To a significant extent but after Trump announced he was pulling American troops out it was the Syrian Army and the Russians that came to the rescue where the Kurds were concerned when they were facing a full scale invasion by Turkey:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria

After that Turkey had to use its drones against the Syrian Army when it looked like Idlib might fall:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Spring_Shield

and that was when their devastating potential became clear for all to see. Not just selling drones to Ukraine but allowing them to build a factory could tip the balance in Donbas in a big way in a similar manner to what happened in Nagorno-Karabakh:

 

Inevitably the impact of Medium Altitude Drones like this (or Indeed Skyguardian/Protector) will be blunted, and while remaining useful - they won't tip the balance so dramatically as they have in recent conflicts.

Basically they provide close air support for ground forces - this is hardly a new capability: ever since the RAF perfected the cab rank system in WW2 the 'on call' short time to availability of air strikes has been overhwelmingly important to winning a war. However, that space was for decades dominated by complex aircraft and fast jets.

What drones like these do, is lower the entry bar into that close air support space for forces that would otherwise have been limited by their ability to field complex fast jets, and in many conflicts where limited air support has also drawn down time and effort spent on short range air defences, then their appearance has been devastating.

On the other hand, these aircraft are relatively slow and largely defenceless. Their persistance and time in theatre combined with their relatively low cost are big advantages, but in a contested environment they might suffer. A similar 'shock' was the large scale fielding of man portable anti tank guided missiles in the Yom Kippur war of 1973 that decimated Israeli tank formations early doors. There was a lot of gnashing of teeth over the future viability of tanks in the face of such threats. In reality, the Israelis had allowed their units to become tank heavy, and restoring the close company infantry component - who could dismount and sweep the ground to keep the ATGM equipped opponents at bay - resored balance.

Likewise, here the revolutionary impact of these drones will likely be diluted by the restoration of Short Range Air Defence troops into close proximity to frontline forces. A lot of militaries are looking again at radar controlled small calibre automatic cannons mounted on vehicles - something that had largely been thought semi obsolete in the last couple of decades, but will provide a relatively low cost deterrent to  slow flying drones operating too close (and which, by the way the Russians keep tonnes of lying around)

In turn, that won't signal the obsolescence of these drone types - but they will end up in a typical development cycle with defences. Flying faster, getting bigger and heavier to accomadate defensive aids, flying lower and/or with stealthier airframes to minimise exposure and requiring more complex, longer ranged weapons to operate. All of which will drive up unit costs and will only again raise the bar for using them for forces with smaller budgets.