Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[dorlomin]

China’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Exceeded the Developed World for the First Time in 2019

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The United States announced yesterday that it would cut its planet-warming emissions 50% to 52% by 2030 from 2005 levels. That puts it squarely on track to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement, which aims to limit global warming to 1.5 C compared with preindustrial levels

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/u-s-commits-to-greater-co2-reductions-china-and-india-do-not/

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The EU has adopted ambitious new targets to curb climate change, with a pledge to make them legally binding.

Under a new law agreed between member states and the EU Parliament, the bloc will cut carbon emissions by at least 55% by 2030, compared with 1990 levels.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56828383#:~:text=The EU has adopted ambitious,2030%2C compared with 1990 levels.

 

 

https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/20/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2020.pdf

The bottom of the Global Carbon Project adjusts this to account for imported and exported carbon, an old standard for those seeking to deflect. So the game plan for the next ten years will be the US trying to cut CO2 for internal political reasons (so long as the Democrats are in power), the EU carrying on its long term projects, while the rest of the world likely to be increasing. This will become a really big area of competition and contention between the major power blocks. "But you emitted for years" vs "we are stopping now". There is no real argument, though. 

 

 

High latitudes are the least at risk to climate change, the lower latitude countries will be the most at risk. So if high latitude countries are cutting CO2, then the lower latitude states growing CO2 are only hurting themselves. 

Pakistan, a nuclear armed quasi failed state with another failed state on its western border is a real stand out there. Serious climate risk on top of everything else. 

Anyway this means over the next few years we will be seeing a ramping up of climate change as an issue in the US domestic politics while the US Democratic administrations will be using it as a weapon to impose tariffs and take a moral position internationally. There current dominant lead in electric vehicles is going to be a serious issue for EU and east Asian car manufacturers. Tesla has already displaced BMW and Mercedes in terms of luxury car sales. BMW hoiked their CEO over that, VW is reportedly best placed of the rest to get into the market (their battery tech is solid state rather than lithium ion, so they have the capacity to really catch up).

This decade will likely see the biggest shakeup in the global auto sector since the emergence of the German and Japanese manufacturers in the 60s. With all the stresses and repercussions that entails. 

EU carbon tax now hitting £50 a tonne and being imposed at the border soonish. So the "imported carbon" thing will begin to redress. 

Climate change impacts will only really start to get serious towards the end of the century. But the political stresses of the mitigation (policies to reduce CO2) are likely to kick off trade wars and diplomatic spats sooner rather than latter. 

 

Economically Covid has taken a year the EU27 has to prepare for falling population levels. People are now starting to talk about the Japanification of various economies.Part of it is steady growing debt with little growth

https://www.ft.com/content/314c626a-c77b-11e9-a1f4-3669401ba76f

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Japanification, or Japanisation, is the term economists use to describe the country’s nearly 30-year battle against deflation and anaemic growth, characterised by extraordinary but ineffective monetary stimulus propelling bond yields lower even as debt burdens balloon. Analysts have long been concerned that Europe is succumbing to a similar malaise, but were hopeful that the US — with its better demographics, more dynamic economy and stronger post-crisis recovery — would avoid that fate.  But with US inflation stubbornly low, the tax-cut stimulus fading and the Federal Reserve now having cut interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis, even America is starting to look a little Japanese. Throw in the debilitating effect of ongoing trade tensions and some fear that Japanification could go global. “You can get addicted to low or negative rates,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management in New York. “It’s very scary. Japan still hasn’t gotten away from it . . . The world is in a very precarious spot.”

Part of it collapsing youth demographics means there are simply less people to spend money in the economy.

An off course the growing costs of pensions and health care.  EU can grow in the former eastern bloc states simply by bringing them more up to the levels of the rest. Though fuckwitted governments in places like Poland and Hungry do not help the process, nor the widespread corruption in places like Romania. 

The Euro and its austerity did not help. It meant that southern European economies could not benefit from cheaper currencies to reduce the costs of their exports making them more competitive and constrained their ability to reboot their post crash economies while they still had a decent working age population. Raising debt is ok when you can grow an economy but when you do not have dialled in growth is going to be a huge problem. 

Chinas population and growth have (now) been much discussed. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/03/chinas-population-could-peak-in-2023-heres-why-that-matters.html

Its working age population is shrinking. Its not rich so this will be a much harder burden on the country and onto the generation who felt their sacrifices in the 80s-today made the country what it is. There are a lot of internal political issues with this. And there is the more males than females thing. 

America benefits from strong immigration a two century culture of welcoming immigrants (despite what the news would have you believe) and people more willing to have kids over the past few decades. Though the US may be facing a period of sustained inflation (its an open question, but the numbers do look troubling. When it comes to inflation you tend to have as many opinions and you do economists. )

The US global draw down continues. 

 

It is now near energy independent so has virtually no fucks to give about the Middle East other than a section of its population and everyone's favourite MENA state to talk about. The region is a bit of a battle ground between the Saudis, Iranians and Turks for control. Turkey has troops all over, Saudi and Iran militias. Thing is though that while the Turkish economy is in the shitter, that is mostly down to Edroclown (and his son in law). Longer term they have a decent chance of growing it again and getting more towards the upper middle income bracket. Iran faces ever shrinking oil exports and ever growing consumption in a world that is plotting to get off oil sooner rather than later (Hello Tesla and other EVs). Saudi is the cheapest oil producer globally but how much it can fund its international adventures if the oil price remains weak in the 2020s is an open question. 

China and Russia have interests from Pakistan to the Suez. How much impact they can have is another question. Clearly Afghanistan blowing up is not in their interest but they cannot really do much about that, they lack the US capacity to absorb the huge financial hit of intervention. 

As Europe and the US use less and less fossil fuels, the region will become less and less of a worry to their planners, other than as a source of jihadi fuckwits. 

Some claim the US is going full isolationist. But that is mostly the Republicans. The Democrats are sort of 50/50. The EU has near zero appetite for expeditionary warfare other than France and its sprawling commitments across west Africa. 

Still globally rising temperatures, flatlining economies, growing debt, weakening pensions and Middle Eastern leaderships staring at economic disaster in the coming decade. Plus maybe inflation.

1 year in. 

[SANTAN]

 

[Detournement]

I love it when Dormolin comes on his voodoo demography.

China is going to run out of people! The USA with hundreds of foreign bases and the biggest military budget in history is going isolationist! Japanification (which sounds a lot like secular stagnation which has been discussed for decades)!

Reality does not get a look in.

 

[Detournement]

34 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

 

If No Fly Lists are good for the Goose they are good for the Gander.

[SANTAN]

L.m.a.o

[SANTAN]

On 23/05/2021 at 13:45, Stormzy said:

 

 

[BigDoddyKane]

I dont see falling or stagnating populations as being a bad thing really, I see a lot of potential positives to it and it should be getting discussed more.  It needs real leadership in how a country deals with it but any country/economy that thinks it has to have constant population growth to survive is propping up an economy that is akin to a pyramid scheme that is unsustainable in long term and any political parties or leaders saying otherwise are part of the problem and are completely out of date.

Edited May 25, 2021 by BigDoddyKane

[SANTAN]

6 minutes ago, Pato said:

It's a serious situation but the tweet of a Scottish Very Serious Thinker has provided some top quality content to read this morning

 

Who would be the "SNP libs" in the first place? Does it mean "liberal" i can imagine it in a 'Murican context but have no clue who the SNP libs would be or what they stand for. 

[Detournement]

6 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

Who would be the "SNP libs" in the first place? Does it mean "liberal" i can imagine it in a 'Murican context but have no clue who the SNP libs would be or what they stand for. 

He will mean it in a British context. 

There are a few SNP MPs like Alyn Smyth, Stewart Hosie and especially Stewart McDonald who are very close to the British security state and NATO. 

[Detournement]

Just now, Pato said:

 the ex imperial states. 

Did I miss a world revolution?

[Detournement]

The arrested guy was part of the Neo Nazi Avoz battalion in Ukraine and also worked for CIA front Radio Free Europe. 

He should be looking at a long spell in jail. 

[SANTAN]

14 minutes ago, Pato said:

In Conterverse canon because the SNP are not advancing the extremely popular, electorally battle tested politics of RISE, they're puppets of shadowy forces who use liberalism as a cover for advancing their unpleasant foreign policy aims that maintain the influence of the ex imperial states. So the EU is a continuation of that and therefore bad, the ideology of the people who gain power in the USA emerges from emigrants from those places so is also bad, if you do anything as fatally compromising as agree with the face value policies of political parties & vote in elections on that basis you're complicit in the bombs that land on some brown person's head and so on.

There is a fag paper of difference between 'you can't criticise the actions of this country because of things your own country has done' and 'we shouldn't send aid overseas* when we have so many problems to fix at home'.

*overseas aid is always cover for the intelligence services of the hated west

So basically a term @Detournement probably came up with...

I get it, I enjoy reading their stuff as it seems very principled and consistent but can't say I agree with an awful lot of it. Especially when it comes to minimising China and Uighur genocide! 

Aside from Scottish politics would it be fair to say the old school lefty Labour lot, Corbyn and McDonnell would fit into similar camps (anti-EU, unwilling to condemn Russia).

It's very interesting and shows to me why the left seem to spend more time arguing with themselves where as the right just seemingly play the power game.

Feel free to correct me, I don't know about RISE but I'm presuming they're behind the kinda strategy the SNP used which to me is usually very centrist and clever/fickle, much to my dismay the SNP do the trojan horse strategy brilliantly

Which fully makes sense to me why:

A. They're in power.

B. People call them similar to New Labour

C. Why you knowing that I don't mind such politics have previously said I'd probably support SNP if it wasn't for Indy

D. Why Detournment was seemingly more critical of Nicola and co rather than waiving criticism to support Indy. 

[SANTAN]

15 minutes ago, Detournement said:

The arrested guy was part of the Neo Nazi Avoz battalion in Ukraine and also worked for CIA front Radio Free Europe. 

He should be looking at a long spell in jail. 

I thought one of the big points in this story was that Belarus use the death penalty? 

Probably a silly question but do you have any proof or anything that could enlighten me to "Radio Free Europe" and why they're likely a CIA front?

I'm not providing my opinion on the subject but from a lot of things I've watched (Ross Kemp lol) 90% of the Ukraine militias resisting the Russian invasion were sadly all neo nazis for whatever messed up reason. 

 

[Detournement]

40 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

I thought one of the big points in this story was that Belarus use the death penalty? 

Probably a silly question but do you have any proof or anything that could enlighten me to "Radio Free Europe" and why they're likely a CIA front?

I'm not providing my opinion on the subject but from a lot of things I've watched (Ross Kemp lol) 90% of the Ukraine militias resisting the Russian invasion were sadly all neo nazis for whatever messed up reason. 

 

Radio Free Europe was exposed as as CIA front 50 years ago. It's had a cosmetic leadership change since then but it's primarily a regime change operation.

 

[NotThePars]

42 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

Probably a silly question but do you have any proof or anything that could enlighten me to "Radio Free Europe" and why they're likely a CIA front?

I think even Wiki acknowledges they were covertly funded by the CIA lol

[Detournement]

2 minutes ago, Pato said:

Yes indeed. Because the way most western democracies work goes down the route of regulating the bad bits of capitalism rather than wholesale replacing it as a fundamentally harmful system

 

Where did you read that?

[Detournement]

1 minute ago, NotThePars said:

I think even Wiki acknowledges they were covertly funded by the CIA lol

The US government admitted when it was exposed by the NYT along with all the Operation Mockingbird stuff in the late 60s/early 70s.

[Detournement]

Just now, Pato said:

Nowhere

It might be time to read a book about capitalism is and how states function under it then. 

[NotThePars]

3 minutes ago, Pato said:

The SNP flirted with elements of this in the 2015-17 period, anxious to retain a demographic that is flaky in terms of showing up and voting and it didn't work so they've done all the things you outlined with considerable success.

I'm genuinely interested to know what the SNP specifically did in these years that represented a break from the previous and following years and how it represented a leftward shift because you've said it a couple of times and I'm not sure what you're referring to. I genuinely don't know btw, not being snarky or whatevs. I was in the party in this period and left 2017 a couple of weeks before the election and any campaigning I did was just the most bland insipid shit with zero policy or ideas being advanced but that could've just been my local candidate (who lost to Paul Sweeney lol).

[BigDoddyKane]

24 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

I'm genuinely interested to know what the SNP specifically did in these years that represented a break from the previous and following years and how it represented a leftward shift because you've said it a couple of times and I'm not sure what you're referring to. I genuinely don't know btw, not being snarky or whatevs. I was in the party in this period and left 2017 a couple of weeks before the election and any campaigning I did was just the most bland insipid shit with zero policy or ideas being advanced but that could've just been my local candidate (who lost to Paul Sweeney lol).

why did you leave the SNP? was there any particular reason