Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, JTS98 said:

That said, I think The Party's days are numbered and China would be much stronger without it.

We've found out to our cost that what comes after an unpleasant and dictatorial regime is never predictable and can be far worse. Be careful what you wish for.

Edited July 29, 2020 by welshbairn

[bendan]

1 hour ago, JTS98 said:

Fair enough.

I think its achievements are mainly behind it and its current strengths are vastly over-stated by the western media. There always has to be a credible adversary, and at the moment China is the only one available since Russia is a shambles.

Funnily enough, a lot of the issues that harm Russia are also a problem for China. The lack of rule of law and entrenched political power by force being the two weaknesses that all others stem from.

That said, I think The Party's days are numbered and China would be much stronger without it.

I think the party is in a much stronger position than it has been for a long time. I know you say there's lots of discontent but outside of the Western periphery there's very little. It's just wishful thinking IMO.

[Tight minge]

We've found out to our cost that what comes after an unpleasant and dictatorial regime is never predictable and can be far worse. Be careful what you wish for.

If China were to disintegrate it would have a huge global impact and not in any goodway.

Despite any failings of China, I don’t see that happening any time soon or maybe even in my lifetime.

I think the reality will be somewhat mundane. China won’t dominate the world as some believe, nor will it implode. The evolved middle class will allow it to sit comfortably as a global power in some shape or form.

A lot of these discussions suggest China wholly controls it's own destiny, like all countries, it doesn’t.

India and Indonesia are two countries that, if they could ever sort out their internal issues (doubtful), would severely impact Chinese development. Protectionism/global recession will probably affect China and the development of robotic manufacturing* is another (and probably the biggest)challenge to China.

Terry Gou stated a number of years ago that he could build nearly all his products using robotics and planned to start test production. Something China blocked (he employs close to 1m people in China). He went ahead and built the test factory in Vietnam which has been a success and is now building his own robots to take over the manufacturing. So far he has now reduced circa 60k jobs in China. Samsung and others are now following suit.

China's current backbone is it's sizeable workforce which could effectively become redundant in the very near future.

[welshbairn]

17 minutes ago, Tight John McVeigh is a tit said:

Terry Gou stated a number of years ago that he could build nearly all his products using robotics and planned to start test production. Something China blocked (he employs close to 1m people in China). He went ahead and built the test factory in Vietnam which has been a success and is now building his own robots to take over the manufacturing. So far he has now reduced circa 60k jobs in China. Samsung and others are now following suit.

China's current backbone is it's sizeable workforce which could effectively become redundant in the very near future.

I thought China was investing heavily in AI research and robotics? They must have some kind of plan for what's coming..maybe.

[Tight minge]

I thought China was investing heavily in AI research and robotics? They must have some kind of plan for what's coming..maybe.

They are now (Midea bought Kuka recently and ABB’s main robotics plant is in China), but they we're heavily against it a few years ago when first muted by Guo. It's not something that can really be stopped now.

It really needs to be a belter of a plan, it’s a lot of people to retrain/redeploy.

The point being that there are many ’external’ factors that will impact China (or any countries) plans and ambitions.

Certainly whether through innovation or theft, China does put itself at the forefront of technology.

[JMDP]

On 23/07/2020 at 15:23, Detournement said:

It's not very clear what's happening. The Organisation for Islamic Co-operation looked into it and said the concentration camp allegations aren't true. I don't buy the stories about trying to stamp out Islam due to the number of mosques.

Whatever is going on is obviously something that wouldn't happen in the West but at the same time nowhere in the West presently has large populations which are far less socially developed than the rest of the country. The USSR had similar issues and Russia remains very diverse. 

In a thread full of H_B shenanigans, this is a real low point. Shameful. 

[bendan]

On 23/07/2020 at 17:37, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

Aye, most of that was a fair bit over the top, I just wanted to see him actually engage with something. I do think overreacting to everything the CCP does and presenting it as a uniformly dystopian society (it isn't) is really counterproductive. It makes it a lot easier for folk who like to close their eyes to pretend that there's nothing to see here in Xinjiang (there is). 

I agree. People take the genuine but often limited or isolated cases and imply they are standard practice. Real issues get lost in what appears to be rage about China's development.

[bendan]

5 hours ago, Tight John McVeigh is a tit said:

 

They are now (Midea bought Kuka recently and ABB’s main robotics plant is in China), but they we're heavily against it a few years ago when first muted by Guo. It's not something that can really be stopped now.

It really needs to be a belter of a plan, it’s a lot of people to retrain/redeploy.

The point being that there are many ’external’ factors that will impact China (or any countries) plans and ambitions.

Certainly whether through innovation or theft, China does put itself at the forefront of technology.
 

 

I don't know how Covid has affected things but in recent years it's been increasingly difficult to recruit people for basic jobs in eastern China, even with big wage hikes. Automation is becoming a necessity.

[Tight minge]

I don't know how Covid has affected things but in recent years it's been increasingly difficult to recruit people for basic jobs in eastern China, even with big wage hikes. Automation is becoming a necessity.

Automation everywhere in the past couple of years has really started to kick on, with Covid the acceleration more rapid.

This isn’t just an issue for China, but everywhere. More magnified in China due to the population.

It won’t just affect basic jobs, robotics, AI and automation has the ability to remove many jobs across the spectrum. They are several good (and frightening) books on this topic.

China's belt and road principal is based on China having things to trade. If the above removes it's key benefit; it's low cost and plentiful workforce, it could be a challenge to them.

The biggest issue for manufacturers is balancing cost against the logistics of getting your product to the point of sale. The two biggest costs are usually raw material and labour. Hence the drive for globalisation over the past 20 years. However with the above, labour could become a minor factor and then the two major costs are raw material and logistics. Logic would suggest moving manufacturing to either the point of source (raw material) or point of sale. This could greatly impact many developing countries.

Logistics has always been an issue for manufacturers and every so often something crops up that fucks the supply chain. Right now Covid-19. In 2004 saw Sony suffer hugely when they could not get their new PS2 to the European market for Christmas. If manufacturers can reduce the cost/risk they will do, and appear to be doing that.

Back to Guo, when Trump demanded he build some of the Apple products in the US to create jobs, he agreed. He wouldn’t be creating many jobs, as the plant would/is fully automated so the labour cost impact between the US and China will be low. If this proves to be correct in any testing, you should expect to see a lot of manufacturing on the move in the near future.

China, I believe are trying to pre/empt this by trying to control raw material (rare earth minerals) and resources (oil in the south China Sea). China are also way ahead of many in the field of green energy production.

China on the whole have got the jump on everyone, including the US. Trumps offer to buy Greenland doesn't sound so absurd when it is assumed it could hold a quarter or more of the worlds rare earth minerals.

However, there is nothing to suggest that China is, or can protect it's population. Most countries will struggle with this, but again, it's just one of many ’external forces’ that governments can’t control when they plan their destiny and world domination.

If the above comes to pass, the countries/regions that have the largest ’demand’ markets are likely to be most successful. So a larger population with disposable cash: EU, US, China?

As for today in China. Like JTS98 says, I can’t believe what I hear. No recession, many companies suggesting things are booming, yet I also have more contact and offers from mnufcatueres than every that borders on desperation and I hear a lot of places are struggling and closing down. Allegedly many smaller enterprises have failed. I cannot see this with my own eyes do obvious reasons right now, but it is the usual ’mixed signals’ from China. I get the feeling your not going to hear the truth from the government, larger manufacturers are building for the weaern market without forecast and could see a big stop coming soon. In all that, the labour pool is becoming a little more flexible than it had been.

[welshbairn]

6 minutes ago, Tight John McVeigh is a tit said:

If the above comes to pass, the countries/regions that have the largest ’demand’ markets are likely to be most successful. So a larger population with disposable cash: EU, US, China?

How would that work though? I could see in the short term concentrating on high end products for people still in work, but that market will dwindle, and pumping out loads of cheap stuff for the unemployed won't last as social security payments become unsustainable. The only jobs will be for people caring for other people who have nothing to pay them. And entertainers until they crack that algorithm. So you create this wonderful world of near infinite productivity by sacking your market. The capitalist model dies.

[Tight minge]

How would that work though? I could see in the short term concentrating on high end products for people still in work, but that market will dwindle, and pumping out loads of cheap stuff for the unemployed won't last as social security payments become unsustainable. The only jobs will be for people caring for other people who have nothing to pay them. And entertainers until they crack that algorithm. So you create this wonderful world of near infinite productivity by sacking your market. The capitalist model dies.

Exactly! Hence the question mark.

There is a lot written on this topic, but none with any real solution other than we are heading towards a world where working is the not priority in life, but if not work, what?

Even entertainment is not safe from AI.

Along with not needing manual labour (robotics), trading jobs can be done quicker and more efficiently by automation and AI, basic and not so basic surgery can already (in theory) be done remotely and in some cases multiple surgeries by one person at one time.
Transportation is clear already. If you dive into this, they are very few jobs that would remain untouched by this.

There is the train of thought that first communism dies, then capitalism dies (as you rightly say), but again what comes next?

It's a hugely complex and, at least for me, a very interesting topic that surely has an impact on how countries act and how their control could actually diminish.

Will there be countries in the future?

I think this is where China has been playing smart with their activities in the South China Sea, control of rare earth minerals and development of their green technology.

My head now hurts thinking about it.

At least by the time this all comes to pass I should be dead (or one I the discarded).

[Guest JTS98]

9 hours ago, bendan said:

I agree. People take the genuine but often limited or isolated cases and imply they are standard practice. Real issues get lost in what appears to be rage about China's development.

I think it's a mistake to see doubt about the veracity of China's claims about itself as being 'rage'.

Perhaps a symptom of modern discussion to view those who hold a different view as being angry.

Why would anyone have 'rage' about China's development? It's a bizarre notion.

Doubting the claims of current success and questioning the potential for future growth are quite reasonable positions based on evidence that is freely available and many examples of which have been given on this thread.

[bendan]

1 hour ago, JTS98 said:

I think it's a mistake to see doubt about the veracity of China's claims about itself as being 'rage'.

Perhaps a symptom of modern discussion to view those who hold a different view as being angry.

Why would anyone have 'rage' about China's development? It's a bizarre notion.

Doubting the claims of current success and questioning the potential for future growth are quite reasonable positions based on evidence that is freely available and many examples of which have been given on this thread.

I have plenty of scepticism about the veracity of China's claims about itself. It was more the veracity of your claims about China. I lived there for the best part of two decades so I've seen plenty of government misinformation and plenty of absurdist exaggeration from sinophobic foreigners.

Resentment of China's growing prosperity is a very real thing. It seems to afflict American and Indian nationalists the most, but as someone else mentioned earlier, you can see a lot of irritation among westerners in SEA at the Chinese tourists inflating the prices and crowding them out.

I started working in China in the late 1990s. At the time there was a quite large body of opinion that China's GDP figures were fake and that the country wasn't really growing at all, and the proponents of this view produced all kinds of stats and anecdotes to back this view. They had no doubt it was about to collapse. 

They've had to modify this view over time, as the economy is quite obviously multiple times what it was, irrespective of how accurate the GDP stats are, but there is still plenty of gross exaggeration about government control, restrictions on movement or beliefs, censorship etc and it drowns out the genuinely troubling real cases.

It's completely reasonable to be sceptical about China's claims and behaviour, but in my opinion people use a completely different set of standards with China than they do with other countries.

 

 

 

[Guest JTS98]

12 minutes ago, bendan said:

I have plenty of scepticism about the veracity of China's claims about itself. It was more the veracity of your claims about China. I lived there for the best part of two decades so I've seen plenty of government misinformation and plenty of absurdist exaggeration from sinophobic foreigners.

Resentment of China's growing prosperity is a very real thing. It seems to afflict American and Indian nationalists the most, but as someone else mentioned earlier, you can see a lot of irritation among westerners in SEA at the Chinese tourists inflating the prices and crowding them out.

I started working in China in the late 1990s. At the time there was a quite large body of opinion that China's GDP figures were fake and that the country wasn't really growing at all, and the proponents of this view produced all kinds of stats and anecdotes to back this view. They had no doubt it was about to collapse. 

They've had to modify this view over time, as the economy is quite obviously multiple times what it was, irrespective of how accurate the GDP stats are, but there is still plenty of gross exaggeration about government control, restrictions on movement or beliefs, censorship etc and it drowns out the genuinely troubling real cases.

It's completely reasonable to be sceptical about China's claims and behaviour, but in my opinion people use a completely different set of standards with China than they do with other countries.

 

 

 

 

I don't think it's that people use different standards with China. Human rights abuses and economic, military, and diplomatic abuses are pointed out all over the place. Incompetence is often highlighted in all kinds of places.

I think it's that the claims around China are so much more hyperbolic. As if it is some coming invincible monster that the rest of the world is helpless in the face of.

The Chinese Century etc. There's just nothing to really back it up. Indeed, there's lots of evidence of difficulties for China in the present, short, medium, and long term.

Pointing that out sees accusations of rage and racism.

[bendan]

2 minutes ago, JTS98 said:

I don't think it's that people use different standards with China. Human rights abuses and economic, military, and diplomatic abuses are pointed out all over the place. Incompetence is often highlighted in all kinds of places.

I think it's that the claims around China are so much more hyperbolic. As if it is some coming invincible monster that the rest of the world is helpless in the face of.

The Chinese Century etc. There's just nothing to really back it up. Indeed, there's lots of evidence of difficulties for China in the present, short, medium, and long term.

Pointing that out sees accusations of rage and racism.

What claims does China make about itself that are so 'hyperbolic'?

You posted a long rant earlier in the thread about government controls on religion, free speech, movement etc, and there's a grain of truth in most of what you said, but it very much doesn't reflect real life in China for 99% of the population. 

[Guest JTS98]

55 minutes ago, bendan said:

What claims does China make about itself that are so 'hyperbolic'?

You posted a long rant earlier in the thread about government controls on religion, free speech, movement etc, and there's a grain of truth in most of what you said, but it very much doesn't reflect real life in China for 99% of the population. 

See, there we are.

Firstly, I said Claims around China, as in claims about China. Not by China. Western media, and western public opinion, is full of hyperbolic claims about China's future. Although in my experience many Chinese people do share this idea. I work with a lot of Chinese people and know a lot of Chinese and ethnically Chinese people.

Secondly, back to my point about how you frame things. A list of things (every single one of which I'm happy to stand by as true) is a 'rant'. Saying there's 'a grain of truth' in things like social credit, or forced deportation, or restricted movement, or a generally coercive state, is quite insulting to the human beings who have to live under such a system. The situation in Hong Kong is real. China's ongoing threat to Taiwan is real and undermines and deligitimises global institutions like the WHO. China's system of government has twice this century, which is only twenty years old, clearly exacerbated situations which have led to potential regional and global health emergencies.

But you'll paint any criticism of them as over-blown, which I disagree with.

That's the way you want to see it, so what's the point? I'm happy with the points I've made and re-made on this thread. The answer will come in the next few decades.

Edited July 30, 2020 by JTS98

[Tight minge]

What claims does China make about itself that are so 'hyperbolic'?
You posted a long rant earlier in the thread about government controls on religion, free speech, movement etc, and there's a grain of truth in most of what you said, but it very much doesn't reflect real life in China for 99% of the population. 

I agree with a lot of what both of you say and you both clearly know the country. However, I think the country you left behind is not like the country it is today (better and worse).

If you measuring point is ’90’s China they have achieved so much and deserve credit. If it is the hear and now and going forward, much less so.
When you say that it (what JTS is saying) doesn’t reflect real life for 99% of the population, I would wholly disagree.

The prosperity gap is widening. A clear middle class evolved, but it is leaving a lot of Chinese in its wake.

[bendan]

1 hour ago, JTS98 said:

See, there we are.

Firstly, I said Claims around China, as in claims about China. Not by China. Western media, and western public opinion, is full of hyperbolic claims about China's future. Although in my experience many Chinese people do share this idea. I work with a lot of Chinese people and know a lot of Chinese and ethnically Chinese people.

Secondly, back to my point about how you frame things. A list of things (every single one of which I'm happy to stand by as true) is a 'rant'. Saying there's 'a grain of truth' in things like social credit, or forced deportation, or restricted movement, or a generally coercive state, is quite insulting to the human beings who have to live under such a system. The situation in Hong Kong is real. China's ongoing threat to Taiwan is real and undermines and deligitimises global institutions like the WHO. China's system of government has twice this century, which is only twenty years old, clearly exacerbated situations which have led to potential regional and global health emergencies.

But you'll paint any criticism of them as over-blown, which I disagree with.

That's the way you want to see it, so what's the point? I'm happy with the points I've made and re-made on this thread. The answer will come in the next few decades.

Yes, where I quoted you, you said 'around China' but just one post earlier you were talking about the veracity of China's claims about itself.

Personally, I don't think it helps the people suffering injustice to say that everyone suffers from it. As someone else said earlier, it makes it too easy to dismiss. People say stuff like 'I went to Beijing and everything was fine'.

Why don't we look at a couple of the areas you've mentioned, as I'm happy to consider what you're saying. What specifically are your concerns about the 'social credit' system? Most of what I've read in the western media about it is utter pish. And how about restricted movement? I'm aware of the Hukou system and know how it works - few people would say it's a good system, but it's proving difficult to reform. But portraying it as meaning poor people are not allowed to go to the places where the rich people live, as you seemed to claim a few pages back, is a gross simplification. And gross simplification is the standard tool of the sinophobe.

[Guest JTS98]

2 minutes ago, bendan said:

Yes, where I quoted you, you said 'around China' but just one post earlier you were talking about the veracity of China's claims about itself.

Personally, I don't think it helps the people suffering injustice to say that everyone suffers from it. As someone else said earlier, it makes it too easy to dismiss. People say stuff like 'I went to Beijing and everything was fine'.

Why don't we look at a couple of the areas you've mentioned, as I'm happy to consider what you're saying. What specifically are your concerns about the 'social credit' system? Most of what I've read in the western media about it is utter pish. And how about restricted movement? I'm aware of the Hukou system and know how it works - few people would say it's a good system, but it's proving difficult to reform. But portraying it as meaning poor people are not allowed to go to the places where the rich people live, as you seemed to claim a few pages back, is a gross simplification. And gross simplification is the standard tool of the sinophobe.

*sigh

 

[bendan]

2 hours ago, Tight John McVeigh is a tit said:

 

I agree with a lot of what both of you say and you both clearly know the country. However, I think the country you left behind is not like the country it is today (better and worse).

If you measuring point is ’90’s China they have achieved so much and deserve credit. If it is the hear and now and going forward, much less so.
When you say that it (what JTS is saying) doesn’t reflect real life for 99% of the population, I would wholly disagree.

The prosperity gap is widening. A clear middle class evolved, but it is leaving a lot of Chinese in its wake.
 

 

Well I only left a couple of years ago, and I've been back since. The pace of change is not as quick as it was from the late 1990s up to maybe 2012-13.

There are some points JTS makes that influence a lot of people to some degree (that's why I said 'a  grain of truth'), but the vast majority of people are not affected in their real lives by any restrictions on movement, of forced deportations, of 'social credit' ratings, or living in fear of saying the wrong thing to the wrong person. Those people (the vast majority) accept a different mix of rights, freedoms and restrictions to what we have in places like Europe because they think it delivers tangible benefits to them, and they also have grave doubts about the alternatives.

Inequality is a huge problem in China, but I think the problem is that it was allowed to grow unchecked for so long. There have been big hikes in the minimum wage in recent years and at SOEs lower paid workers have often had bigger raises, which is the opposite of what was happening earlier on. Still, though, a massive problem for the country.