Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
dorlomin

Geopolitics in the 2020s.

Recommended Posts

So five months into the decade where are we?

The coming demographic changes in Europe are going to have huge social and economic impacts. The drop in in younger people will begin to bite this decade. This means less demand for the kinds of goods young people buy and liquidating the assets of the older generation (done by their pension funds to pay the pensions). This may see less buyers for state debt but then again, they can sell it at nominal negative rates at the moment. 

The US seems to be driving a deglobalisation, they are pulling apart almost every multilateral institution and treaty they are part of. There fracking industry was built on junk bonds so that is likely to blow up in a subprime fashion in the next couple of years as struggle producers cannot roll over commercial paper. The "heartland\flyover" type states are now pretty sick of foreign wars so their is a big push for a pull back from the world. And it is now pivoting to see China as the New SSR. 

Iran started the year cock-a-hoop. The US drawdown in Iraq and pull out of Syria seemed to put it into poll position in those countries. But its oil industry is taking it harder than Texas right now

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-oil/hit-by-coronavirus-and-trump-irans-oil-exports-dwindle-to-record-low-idUSKBN22Q0U3

All the money they had for those fun little proxy wars (with zero condemnation from the left) is drying up. Their mortal enemy however has a big bank of savings. Saudis fortunes seem on the up in the region. A country that seem to have the aim of spreading the 8th century AD as far and wide as they can. Dark times for the region. 

In Asia China seems to be going of the deep end. There notorious shadow banking system 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_shadow_banking

seems to permanently be on the brink of collapse. Over the past 6 years they went from being everyones friend to suddenly seeming to see the 1930s as the decade to emulate. Japan is getting old, but it seems the cannyest of the operators there. RoK is going the same way but has built a really impressive resume. HK and Taiwan are between a hard rock and the deep blue sea... certainly Xi's determination to dominate any Han majority country in the region seems to make it likely blood will flow (Singapore is not in the region).

In South Asia Modi is showing Nick Griffith what a real ethno nationalist looks like, but they have growth and good demographics. Pakistan is ..... well its Pakistan. 

Not really a tour of the full world but an introduction. 

And of top of this we have climate change, the population boom in Africa, debt crises in South America, Putin trying to play the chess grand master with the draughts set he has been left since the USSR collapsed..... 

A thread for thoughts and stories from the world outside the usual UK\US domestic politics that dominate this sub. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-28/u-k-plans-citizenship-for-hong-kong-residents-in-row-with-china

The UK puts itself at the front of the queue to start asset stripping Hong Kong of its high skilled workers. 

The more China threatens to normalise Hong Kong within the Marxist tyranny of the PRC, the more people will be motivated to leave. Its human resources are its only resource. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dread that this decade is going to be an absolute horror show.  All the ingredients seem to be there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

India v China. Pick a side lads.

How about we sit this one out. Maybe do a Sweden and sell weapons to both sides.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

India v China. Pick a side lads.

The Tibetan Plataea and the Himalayas mean its very hard to get any heavy equipment to a fight. You would imagine it would be most light infantry type stuff. The sort of fighting you get when India and Pakistan are flexing in the Kargil Glacier. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siachen_conflict#Kargil_War

The US is really beefing up its Pacific fleet

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/15/asia/us-aircraft-carriers-pacific-china-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

In order to step up its challenges to Chinas claims over the China Sea, while China "violated" (they do not accept this) Taiwanese airspace. They are acting a bit like "that guy" in the 11:30pm taxi queue back when pubs shut at 11 (and back when pubs were actually open at all). Picking fights with everyone and not really sure they are picking winnable ones. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dorlomin said:

The Tibetan Plataea and the Himalayas mean its very hard to get any heavy equipment to a fight. You would imagine it would be most light infantry type stuff. The sort of fighting you get when India and Pakistan are flexing in the Kargil Glacier. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siachen_conflict#Kargil_War

The US is really beefing up its Pacific fleet

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/15/asia/us-aircraft-carriers-pacific-china-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

In order to step up its challenges to Chinas claims over the China Sea, while China "violated" (they do not accept this) Taiwanese airspace. They are acting a bit like "that guy" in the 11:30pm taxi queue back when pubs shut at 11 (and back when pubs were actually open at all). Picking fights with everyone and not really sure they are picking winnable ones. 

Seems like the US forces generally are competing the pivot to the Pacific that Obama started. Read somewhere that the US Marines are reorganising away from heavy ground forces to fight their "pacing threat" which is now China.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Gerald Elbowdent said:

That's an understatement, if the batons and rock throwing line is to be believed.

 

Sounds astonishing that it could lead to over 20 deaths.

Not one c**t phoned the Polis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, ICTChris said:

India v China. Pick a side lads.

Food - India by a mile.   

Cricket - India by a mile.

I see no other ways of solving this dispute.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, NewBornBairn said:

How about we sit this one out. Maybe do a Sweden and sell weapons to both sides.

Is that not what we normally do anyway?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, dorlomin said:

The Tibetan Plataea and the Himalayas mean its very hard to get any heavy equipment to a fight. You would imagine it would be most light infantry type stuff. The sort of fighting you get when India and Pakistan are flexing in the Kargil Glacier. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siachen_conflict#Kargil_War

The US is really beefing up its Pacific fleet

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/15/asia/us-aircraft-carriers-pacific-china-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

In order to step up its challenges to Chinas claims over the China Sea, while China "violated" (they do not accept this) Taiwanese airspace. They are acting a bit like "that guy" in the 11:30pm taxi queue back when pubs shut at 11 (and back when pubs were actually open at all). Picking fights with everyone and not really sure they are picking winnable ones. 

Best Wolves Mick Mccarthy GIFs | Gfycat

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Savage Henry said:

Food - India by a mile.   

Cricket - India by a mile.

I see no other ways of solving this dispute.

If all international disputes are resolved by cricket then I welcome our new Indian overlords.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, Merkie84 said:

Did England not just win the cricket World Cup? 😲

It was the same as 1966. They were awarded a score that never actually occured. 

So we can ignore it.

Edited by Detournement

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

China promising to write of loans to Africa

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/19/economy/china-xi-jinping-africa-intl-hnk/index.html

China has issued about $158 billion in debt to Africa according to the article. Its clearly an attempt to play the good guy on the world stage. Its one of those things that may not play as well in local press as they assume. It depends on how much debt is cut and under what terms. 

The Belt and Road has been a hot topic across the world for a good few years now. How much of it is a serious effort to built infrastructure that will be useful and how much of it is just old fashioned central planning with little commercial viability like the famous ghost cities inside China is anyone guess. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In context 20% of African debt is owed to China. The USA owes $1.04 Trillion dollars to China. China has lots of dollars to lend out.

The ghost cities are an Atlantic Council talking point that pops up in the Murdoch papers and places like Vice. The reality is that since the 1980s China has had a huge amount of rural to urban migration and to anyone who is not a raging neoliberal it's obviously preferable to have excess capacity of planned urban homes rather than end up like Sao Paulo, Manilla or Lagos with with huge slums surrounding the metropolitan area.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The election tonight in Poland is worth a watch.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/28/voting-begins-poland-presidential-election-as-race-tightens

In essence the far right wing Law and Justice Party have been ruling the roost in Poland with a sort of Catholic version of US revivalist politics.  The current president who is aligned with them is being challanged by a much more moderate and modern politician, the mayor of Warsaw. It is very close and should go to a run off. If the Law and Justice party take an indirect hit it could be another sign  of some fading in the recent fad for populists. Also Poland and Hungry each block actions against the other by the EU to prevent sanctions on them for violating EU rules. If either Orban or the Law and Justice party fall from power it will allow the EU to crack down much harder on the remaining authoritarian regime. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We were a few weeks into the new decade and China dumped a 100 years pandemic on us. 

That's playing all your aces in the first hand and knocking the weak out of the game. It's going to be hard to trump that (no pun intended).

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest JTS98
On 30/05/2020 at 04:18, dorlomin said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-28/u-k-plans-citizenship-for-hong-kong-residents-in-row-with-china

The UK puts itself at the front of the queue to start asset stripping Hong Kong of its high skilled workers. 

The more China threatens to normalise Hong Kong within the Marxist tyranny of the PRC, the more people will be motivated to leave. Its human resources are its only resource. 

Interesting that China is now saying it plans to make moves to stop Hong Kong residents leaving to live in Britain. This is perhaps the most significant story in the news at the moment as it has unbelievably far-reaching consequences for everyone in the world.

Can China manage to legitimately sell the idea that it can stop its nationals choosing of their own volition to move to a democratic country of their choice? This would set a precedent that allows states to effectively imprison their population. The DDR lives!

Practically, this will involve China making quite convoluted changes to the law. For example, they might be able to stop Chinese nationals moving directly to the UK, but how can they stop them moving to the UK after they've moved to Singapore or Malaysia or France etc? Huge implications for state control of the banking system and individual assets if this happens.

Not to mention the geopolitical relationships that would be put under strain if, for example, Singapore or Malaysia or France told the UK it wasn't going to allow Chinese nationals to move and take their assets to the UK from their territory because China told them not to. There's the beginnings of a war there.

Also, what does it say for the future of The Party in China and its legitimacy as the government of China (which was established only by violence, remember) if they resort to basically imprisoning their citizens? This is one of these political moves that China may think makes it look strong but will actually highlight its weakness and the challenges it faces in controlling what is claims as its territory.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...