Independence for Scotland Party

[welshbairn]

6 minutes ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

It might make it harder, but if there’s one thing you can always rely on the Tories for, it’s sticking with an obvious lie through thick and thin.

If every single person in Scotland voted SNP, Boris would repeatedly claim there was no mandate.

Quite, but anyone who wants independence doesn't really have a choice, outside tactical considerations that do my head in. It would be nice if the SNP and Greens have separate joint manifesto solely about independence, on top of their own ones on all the other issues, just to clarify the result and making voting choices easier.

Edited December 14, 2020 by welshbairn

[D Angelo Barksdale]

6 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

52% would make it harder for them to claim that there is no mandate for a referendum, why make it easier for them by spoiling your vote?

'The SNP may well have won every single seat with over 95% of the vote, but I'd like to remind Nicola Sturgeon that this was a Scottish parliament election, not an Independence referendum. Scotland had one of those and the people of Scotland voted decisively to stay in the union and the Westminster government consider this to be the settled will of the Scottish people for at least a generation. Nicola Sturgeon should stop talking about divisive referendums and get on with the day job'

D Ross May 2021

[welshbairn]

6 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

'The SNP may well have won every single seat with over 95% of the vote, but I'd like to remind Nicola Sturgeon that this was a Scottish parliament election, not an Independence referendum. Scotland had one of those and the people of Scotland voted decisively to stay in the union and the Westminster government consider this to be the settled will of the Scottish people for at least a generation. Nicola Sturgeon should stop talking about divisive referendums and get on with the day job'

D Ross May 2021

Ah well, you might as well draw your cock and balls on the ballot paper then, in Moray at least they'd know who you intended to vote for.

[lichtgilphead]

4 minutes ago, Juanhourjoe said:

From the regional percentages there, greens could realistically pick up a seat in any of the region's they don't have one. Also a second in Glasgow. 

It has been mentioned by some, that Highland is a wasted vote, since the SNP didn't win every constituency. But I've also seen other figures that greens were closer to picking up an additional seat than SNP.

It's fine margins all over really. And too close to predict it either way. But I do feel green voting has been suppressed quite a bit by only SNP can deliver independence/ you can vote for who you want after indy folk.

Assuming that Labour & the Tories get around 20% of the list vote each in Highlands & Islands, the Greens would need to take around 14% to win two list seats. That's nearly double what they achieved at the last SP election. 

This second seat, of course, would be at the expense of the SNP. A net gain of zero pro-indy MSP's isn't much of a result, and risks the following scenario: If the list result is SNP 40% CON 20% LAB 20% GRN 13% LD 7%, the Greens only win 1 list seat and the SNP zero. 

However, if the SNP get 47% of the list vote, they are just about certain of a list seat. That's why I'll vote SNP/SNP in Highlands & Islands.

I would only vote SNP/Green if it looked likely that the Greens could take 2nd place on the list by beating both Labour & the Tories. In that scenario, there would be 3 Green MSP's. However, I'm not willing to take the chance of losing a SNP list MSP on an assumption that the Greens will nearly triple their vote through SNP supporters trying to game the system.

Obviously, my reasoning might be different if the SNP were to win all 8 constituency seats in the region, but (unfortunately), I expect Orkney & Shetland (and maybe Moray) to vote for other parties.

 

 

 

 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

26 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Ah well, you might as well draw your cock and balls on the ballot paper then, in Moray at least they'd know who you intended to vote for.

The Wings party ?

[Juanhourjoe]

14 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

Assuming that Labour & the Tories get around 20% of the list vote each in Highlands & Islands, the Greens would need to take around 14% to win two list seats. That's nearly double what they achieved at the last SP election. 

This second seat, of course, would be at the expense of the SNP. A net gain of zero pro-indy MSP's isn't much of a result, and risks the following scenario: If the list result is SNP 40% CON 20% LAB 20% GRN 13% LD 7%, the Greens only win 1 list seat and the SNP zero. 

However, if the SNP get 47% of the list vote, they are just about certain of a list seat. That's why I'll vote SNP/SNP in Highlands & Islands.

I would only vote SNP/Green if it looked likely that the Greens could take 2nd place on the list by beating both Labour & the Tories. In that scenario, there would be 3 Green MSP's. However, I'm not willing to take the chance of losing a SNP list MSP on an assumption that the Greens will nearly triple their vote through SNP supporters trying to game the system.

Obviously, my reasoning might be different if the SNP were to win all 8 constituency seats in the region, but (unfortunately), I expect Orkney & Shetland (and maybe Moray) to vote for other parties.

 

 

 

 

The greens are more likely to take a second list seat, as the SNP already have Maree Todd in on the list. 

Labour are getting nowhere near 20% and got 2 seats last time from 11% last time and have polled much lower since. Their seat is the one for the taking.

[lichtgilphead]

32 minutes ago, Juanhourjoe said:

The greens are more likely to take a second list seat, as the SNP already have Maree Todd in on the list. 

Labour are getting nowhere near 20% and got 2 seats last time from 11% last time and have polled much lower since. Their seat is the one for the taking.

The SNP have no chance whatsoever of taking a second seat in the Highlands & Islands list. However, if SNP supporters are daft enough to try to game the system, they stand a good chance of losing Maree Todd's existing seat.

Last time around, the seats were allocated in this order: 1CON 2LAB 3CON 4CON 5GRN 6SNP 7LAB.. If everything else remais equal and there's a 1.55% swing from SNP to GRN on the list (that's just 3388 votes) it would result in the 6th seat going to LAB and the 7th to CON.

To game the system to win a second Green seat would require 7565 SNP voters to lend their vote to the Greens.

I'm not willing to dilute the SNP vote to end up with the same number (or fewer!) of pro-indy list MSP's 

With regard to your point about the Labour vote, I would point out that this week's poll Survation poll puts Labour at 20% across Scotland on the list. 

SNP - 41% (-2)
Lab - 20% (+1)
Con - 18% (+1)
Grn - 10% (nc)
LD - 7% (nc)
Brex - 1% (-1)
UKIP - 1% (nc)

If this result was replicated in the Highlands & Islands, and the Lib Dems retain Orkney & Shetland, the list result would be 1LAB 2CON 3GRN 4LAB 5CON 6LAB 7CON. However, the SNP would only need to raise their vote from 41% to 42% to win that 7th seat. The Greens would need to go from 10% to 12%.

IMO, the risks of trying to game the system in Highlands & Islands far outweigh any potential gain.

 

 

[Granny Danger]

2 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Constituency - SNP.

I personally have little time for the Greens but, as the only real option for an independence candidate on the list in the North East of Scotland, I'll hold my nose and vote for.them.
 

For me the Greens have to say a vote for them is a vote for a second referendum.

[oneteaminglasgow]

14 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

For me the Greens have to say a vote for them is a vote for a second referendum.

https://greens.scot/news/only-the-scottish-people-can-determine-their-future
there you go.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

3 hours ago, Juanhourjoe said:

Already there man. Have gone for the SNP/green route in the past. But an SNP majority isn't in doubt anymore. And they need a credible opposition now.

I wouldn't be so sure.  In the run-up to the 2016 election the SNP were polling as high as 60%.  They haven't hit that figure in this electoral cycle.  And they didn't get a majority in 2016.